Tinfoil Hat? Monkeyfister has screen shots and analysis of violent activity from the Oil Cam nt

[flamingdem]

http://monkeyfister.blogspot.com/2010/05/major-change-down-below.html

[flamingdem]

1. The Oil Drum is the blog for science. Highly recommended.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6501

* Somewhere in the comments they discussed Monkeyfister's observations last night I think

Part of the ABC story deals with a drop in the production volumes that are being picked up by the riser insertion tube (RIT) that is taking oil from the leak to storage tanks on the surface.

BP spokesman John Curry told The Associated Press on Sunday that a mile-long tube inserted into the leaking well siphoned some 57,120 gallons of oil (1,360 barrels a day) within the past 24 hours, a sharp drop from the 92,400 gallons of oil a day (2,200 bd) (and 15 million cf of natural gas) that the device was sucking up on Friday. However, the company has said the amount of oil siphoned will vary widely from day to day.

Both of those numbers are significantly short of the 5,000 bd that the system was anticipated to remove from the riser, thereby significantly lowering the amount that is piped to the surface. At the same time there is an Op-Ed piece that has just run in the NYT which suggests, based in part on the measurements at Purdue from the oil venting video, that the real flow rate is around 40 – 100,000 barrels a day. BP have not released some of the information that would allow ball-park calculations of the actual flow, despite their claim to be open and transparent (I included the Unified Command in that decision initially but they don’t have that ability and I recognize the error). But there are some some factors that should perhaps be considered in evaluating the possible accuracy of these estimates (recognizing that there may never be a way of making an accurate assessment, though there now is a group, including the folk from Purdue, that will provide a final analysis that will be peer-reviewed and released to the public).

In an earlier post, BP had noted that the pressures that they were recording at the top of the well, and across the BOP were lower than they had anticipated, and that they were falling. They need to have this information before they inject the mud into the bottom end of the riser to do the top kill later this week. The Op-Ed piece suggested that this will only limit the leak, but if the kill works it will actually stop the leak and allow a cement plug to be placed at the top of the well, sealing it from leaking. However the mud must be injected at a pressure greater than that within the well itself, and in sufficient volume that it will flow down the well, rather than through the BOP and out the broken riser. This is achieved by raising the flow level to such a value (in this case 1,680 gal/min of mud) that there is too much resistance for this to flow through the gap in the BOP and the flow therefore pushes back down the well, filling it with mud with sufficient density that it will overcome the pressure at the bottom of the well.

Now the pressure along the passage that oil and gas makes as it goes from the reservoir, up through the initial well, through the BOP, down the riser, and then either into the RIT or out into the ocean, undergoes several pressure drops. With each drop the gas content will preferentially expand more and take up a greater volume of the total flow space.

[lonestarnot]

2. Thanks for posting this. I looked for an update to the early a.m thread and didn't see

anything. :hi:

[flamingdem]

3. Great. Sometimes having information can help a little bit! nt

[flamingdem]

4. KOS has an animation of the TOP KILL

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/5/24/869285/-How-the-top-kill-would-%28hopefully%29-work-%28with-animation%29

Animation:


excerpt:
To me, not an engineer but with a science background, the top kill idea didn't make any sense, with that riser kinked and leaking where it comes out of the BOP. The idea initially shown below is that under very high pressure a dense and viscous substance ("mud") would be injected into the "kill" and "choke" ports, and that this pressurized substance would force the oil back down the well, and then would be cemented over. However, it seemed to me that firstly, the mud could not be injected very rapidly through the small hoses, and, secondly, the mud would just come flying out the top and rip the already leaking riser pipe into shreds.

[flamingdem]

6. ERROR: the animation is on the blog page under the graphic nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. I am not a geologist

and my only experience with ground doing that involves confined rescue, where we had to be careful...

That said to this untrained eyes it looks like perhaps the ground is fracturing... and if this is the case, that is NOT good news.

Think about it this well, sink-hole

Also if I got it right with the Technical on the Annulus, one of the problems they will have is matting the gear and closing the system.

Of course this is just speculation on my part and feel free to ignore... in fact please do.

:hi:

On and one more, I am starting to think that BP actually is not giving the actual numbers since they themselves are having trouble with that... whether that is on purpose or not is a whole different question. And if this is to maintain confidence... well their stock has already been downgraded, so it is in their financial interests and the common good, for them to cap this ASAP. Or rather ASAP safely. One thing that happened with the Ixtoc is that attempts at things like this lead to further leaks.

[flamingdem]

7. I am worried that they have so much pressure on them they will risk the procedure

when the conditions have already deteriorated too much.

I read elsewhere that it's likely they will shoot some "mud" it's really a heavy substance and not mud, to test it a bit, but apparently it's either full force or stop from there and if anything goes wrong the BOP could come apart thus making further attempts with a second BOP or even the relief well more difficult if not impossible.

So it might be a press stunt .. we'll see what happens Wednesday.

I'm thinking that our wise Obama is having his presser Thursday, he doesn't know but I bet his people are indicating a lack of trust in this operation..

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. well the lack of trust is also our wonderful

media

And their agenda that guv'ment don't work

I mean people are asking where is the Navy? They are there, with aircraft, logistics and communications support and pollution control teams... how many people know that? I mean I've been watching news and if you just take their word on it... there is nowhere anybody from the Feds in there...

So that don't help, one bit.

As to the stunt effort... PEMEX faced the same issues. I followed that one out of interest... and it is like I am watching the same horror movie all over again.

[flamingdem]

10. The MSM allows things to get over the top for ratings

and even Keith was doing that today on MSNBC. I can't believe how idiotic they get.. emotions are not going to help us now but some understanding of the problem might!

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. And this site is full of emotion too

I know I could be screaming, but I learned a long time ago, mostly in the middle of disasters, that emotions will get you killed.

True story, I started my EMS career just before San Juanico blew. So I spent the day that happened at HQ directing traffic and yes commandeering a PRI party buss to serve as an ad-hoc ambulance... trust me that was a power rush for this 18 year old. I mean I DID WHAT? And I got away with it.

:-)

Three days later I was on shift, after it was put off. Well they had a secondary explosion when the news came in, I threw my helmet to the ground out of raw anger just outside the station, clearly in the public's view. I mean people I KNEW could be dead. Thankfully nobody was. Always thank whoever for small miracles...

Well I was called into the office and had my ass chewed over by a very senior officer. I mean that outburst was all but professional and in an actual scene could get somebody killed, chiefly me.

I learned the lesson. Years later I had to teach that lesson to my students. Yes, do show emotion, and vent, AFTER the emergency and out of the public view. In the middle of one... never, ever let emotion take over. Assess things and realize that most of the time you have a choice of pretty lousy choices when you have a major disaster. So hope you chose the "right one," or as I used to tell my people, the lesser of them... and that you do the most good.

[flamingdem]

13. That helps explain why the most important figures are the least emotional

But of course everyone wants Obama showing emotion so we can get confirmation...

I am very emotional about this incident because I cannot believe how enormous it could get and I really did not want to experience a TEOWAKI 'The End Of the Web As we Know It' event!

I don't think I can get it out of my mind for more than about an hour at a time.

It's shocking, and I was close to Three Mile Island. That was nothing by comparison because it was so short lived.

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. Well I believe we are at the end of the age of oil

and we are in the midst of the sixth grand extinction, according to biologists

See here

http://www.amazon.com/Sixth-Extinction-Patterns-Future-Humankind/dp/0385468091

So either way, I expect to see the end of the US in my lifetime, as the empire collapses, as well as Peak Oil.

No use in getting emotional about it, but at least I don't have kids (well beyond two parrots)... at one time I kicked myself for it, but for many reasons we were never able to conceive.

As to enormous, following the Ixtoc I time line it took nine months, so no I don't expect this to be over next Wednesday, but I am willing to be pleasantly surprised. On the bright side, those fisheries, which were believed to be done for like for generations did recover in ten years. So worst case... end of life... I don't think so... at least not because of this. Because of Human action over the last 200 years, that is another story.

[flamingdem]

16. Thanks for the book tip. I used to have a parrot

a red naped Amazon. I remember every morning the parrot would wake me up with an ever louder hello? hello? A great alarm clock!

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. These two demand their eggo

in a nice LOUD way.

The Nanday got out of the cage one morning when I was in Cleveland with my parents, climbed onto bed, and nibbled onto my husband's ear until HE woke up... never mind the parrot don't like him, but hey he was the only human capable of the feed the parrots trick. I tell you we are well trained.

[flamingdem]

9. This is a good explanation of the risks from KOS - this sounds better now

Some major brainiacs must be tweaking this procedure right now... (pray)

The idea is to set up a sort of drill press over the top of the BOP, and ream it out, and make a seat for a seal which would then be forced down on top of the BOP. I'm not so sure how they can put a cap down on top of the huge gusher that will be coming out at that point. Most likely this cap will actually be a valved pipe, and the valve will be initially open. If this pipe can be seated successfully, then the valve will be closed.

If this capping procedure is successful, and the BOP and the wellhead hold together, this would stop the flow. This would also in theory allow for successful injection of mud through the "choke" and "kill" lines at high pressure. Now this latter assumes that these two lines in the BOP are in continuity with the well, and that BP engineers can successfully jack into these lines and force mud down them. Obviously the whole thing depends on their ability to set up this giant drill press thingy over the BOP. Not easy at a mile under the ocean. It really reminds me of "The Right Stuff."

Speculation:
It seems obvious that this top kill runs the risk of completely opening up the well. I'm wondering if BP is going this route because it is becoming increasingly clear that the leak is already just about as big as it could get, and is getting worse all the time, because of erosion of the riser and/or other parts of the train. If my hunch is right, the chances of success might actually be rather low, but since the consequences are no worse than the status quo, BP is going ahead. If it fails, they will just say, the flow was already huge. If it succeeds, obviously they will be "heroes."

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. Hmm from an engineering point of view that makes sense

essentially create first an open system and then close it under pressure.

I hope it works... and not for BP's sake...

:-)

[flamingdem]

14. I'd give Tony the CEO a hug if this works

though I really wouldn't like having to do that!

[Cetacea]

18. One to keep an eye on. That group is dedicated.

K&R

[Mojeoux]

19. K & Effing R