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NOAA will release its outlook for hurricane season on Thursday, and the guess here is that it will call for a busy – if not a very busy – year.
Generally, NOAA’s forecast roughly follows that of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University, as both teams study the same basic set of climatic factors to develop their predictions.
Klotzbach-Gray call for 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes, four intense. They note El Niño is fading and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are abnormally warm.
Both teams also look at years where atmospheric conditions prior to the start of the season were similar to those of this year. Klotzbach-Gray point to 1998 and 2005, which saw 10 and 15 hurricanes respectively.
Keep in mind that NOAA provides its forecast in ranges. So don’t be surprised to see the high end of those ranges exceed the Klotzbach-Gray numbers.
They better get that oil stopped quickly or it'll be raining oil all the way to New England.
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