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Seventy percent of the food value of the corn feedstock remains following ethanol processing assuming wet milling.
The problem is, where does the energy to produce ethanol come from since the EPR is ~1 (energy content of product equals energy required to make the product). Currently they are using coal and natural gas, fuel that could be used directly to make a liquid fuel (EPR of coal to liquids ~ 5). Current corn ethanol production using these energy sources has minimal impact on reducing carbon emissions.
Since ~ 70% of the energy required to produce corn ethanol is consumed at the processing plant, corn ethanol could be an energy carrier for intermittent wind energy. In other words, a way to store and convert wind energy into a liquid fuel.
Thing is, we are not going to run anything close to the current system on ethanol, or any biofuel. The biodiesel option shows somewhat more potential since it actually is an energy source (EPR ~ 3), with a similar percent of food value remaining (~ 70% soy biodiesel). But, again, no where close to meeting the needs of even the current ICE fleet.
So, the conclusion I have reached is the future is electric. The future is local. Electric cars, trains, etc. Local economies reducing the demand for transportation energy.
With the inherent efficiency of an electric transportation economy, we may be able to produce enough energy with renewables combined with a greatly reduced burn rate on the non-renewables (nuclear, coal, natural gas). With this shift to electric transportation, we will probably be able to produce an adequate quantity of 'renewable' liquid fuels (ethanol, biodiesel, BTL~biomass gasification) for heavy equipment not readily electrified and PHEV's.
One note, I don't see how, if the energy balance for corn ethanol can not be made to work sustainably, that cellulosic ethanol can be made to work, since that same 70% process plant energy will apply (fermentation, distilling, 'drying').
Who knows, considering that BD and GTL processes directly yield compression ignition compatible fuel, maybe we are in the final days of spark ignition engines in anything larger than small implements.
As corn ethanol stands today, it is not worth the effort from an environmental and energy security standpoint. With process transformation (to wind energy) and technological improvements it could be a factor in the liquid fuel starved future, but as an energy carrier, not as an energy source.
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