Color me the Cynic on the spill...

[Javaman]

If exxon is any model to work from, it will certainly be tied up in the courts from now until forever.

And if Obama does try to put the hammer down on BP, it will vanish as soon as he is out of office and a repuke is in his place.

huge portions of the gulf are already dead zones due to fertilizer run off, but where are the lawsuits and fishing bans because of that?

this will be tied up in red tape court forever.

eventually, the "fine" will be whittled down to virtually nothing.

I can bet you, right now, BP's lawyers are consulting with Exxon's.

Be prepared now for the excess spin and rebranding of BP, followed by a paltry amount of "good will" in the example of "helping out the fishermen" in some vein.

Then as the story is shuffled out of the headlines, the "good will" will vanish, the PR machine will go into overdrive using thinly based "evidence" that BP is "fixing" things in the gulf.

All the while, the lawyers will be screaming back and forth over what this or that costs.

What is the price of one birds life? What is the cost of clean up for a square foot of marshland? What is the economic impact to the average fisherman?

Numbers will be thrown around. Some very high, some disgustingly low.

But in the end, some moron official will make some sort of proclamation, years from now, that "this settlement is fair for everyone involved!" aka, the lawyers are happy with their payout and the corps can still go on with their person-hood intact while suffering not so much as a financial dent.

In the mean time, the people, remember them? They will have suffered more poverty, more unemployment, vanishing industries while living in a toxic land that will cause god know what sort of ailments.

presidents will come and go, programs to fix things will be proposed, reproposed and then promptly vanish after the photo-ops.

In the mean time, the damage is done.

This is what will happen.

[closeupready]

1. If history is a guide, you're correct.

n/t

[RandomThoughts]

2. What money it cost them is an interesting point.

But more importantly, the ideology of race to the bottom that causes that will be seen for what it causes.

And regardless of how the oil well tragedy happened, and I hope it was not intentional, that is not the problem. Why weren't there contingencies in place, and proper safety measures available?

[Javaman]

5. Because safety messures cost money. nt

[RandomThoughts]

8. Only a small part of the answer.

The real answer is, because safety measures cost money, and we let money and profit motive set many policies out of balance with social good.

[Javaman]

12. Exactly right.

this is the equivelent of the coal mine corps not dealing with their violations.

[G_j]

3. yep

[spanone]

4. i wonder if bp is still running those 'green' ads....you are right, javaman

recommended

[Echo In Light]

6. K/R

[glitch]

7. They're counting on The Supremes to settle all suits for pennies on the dollar. Like Exxon. nt

[Dappleganger]

15. You're right and this is so sad.

We cannot trust the checks and balances in government any longer to do the right thing.

[BobbyBoring]

9. I haven't

bought Exxon gas since the spill and now I'm adding BP to my boycott list. Don't feel powerless, empower yourself. BOYCOTT ALL COMPANIES THAT DO AMERICA HARM!

[Javaman]

16. Then stop using your computer...

which is powered by coal and made from plastic.

While I applaud boycotts on the surface, the concept of boycotting a product that is every much a part of us as our blood, is basically hopeless.

We use fossil fuels to travel, eat, breath, cloth ourselves, for amusement, for just about ever single thing in our lives.

As much as I try the best I can, trying to eliminate any fossil fuel product is impossible.

And by just boycotting exxon and bp does nothing. They buy the oil from an open market. So what exxon or bp doesn't buy, shell, total or any other of the dozens of oil corps will. They will in turn sell it to a refinery. Which exxon, has a huge stake in.

You can't get away from it.

The only solution would be to nationalize the energy sector, but that will never ever happen.

Plus, oil spills happen virtually every day in the gulf. Where is that outrage?

This one just happens to be gigantic thus causing proportional outrage.

But sadly, like the exxon valdez spill, this too will pass from the headlines and into the courts until the next "major spill" to cause us all to be "outraged".

Remember one thing, until money is removed from the equation, spills such as these and more like them, are going to happen. And as the easy oil gets harder and harder to find, spills such as these will become more common as oil corps keep drilling deeper and deeper in areas where there is no safe way to cap a leak.

This leak is pretty far down, that is why there is such an issue with capping it.

There are others that are much further down than this one.

[blindpig]

10. Capitalism is killing us.

When will it be time to return the favor?

[The2ndWheel]

19. Privatizing the world's energy for a single species

is a bigger problem than capitalism, because no matter what economic system it is, it's all about us.

[blindpig]

21. Privatizing is capitalism.

As well as is commodifying everything under the sun.

A rational society, if it felt it necessary to do this sort of thing, would use a cost/benefit analysis that would include everything, not just the profitability of the enterprise concerned.

Kill the capitalism first and the rest of the jobs become much easier.

[northernlights]

11. I almost hope you are right, for a sad reason

I don't think they're going to able to sweep this under the rug or spin it away.

It is so HUGE..and growing. Now 25,000 barrels per day (1,000,000+ gallons/day) and 9 million gallons already out there. And that's by satellite imagery...they don't really know how much is underneath.

BP won't admit how much oil they believe to be under there, but one of their people anonymously quoted 10s of millions of barrels. That would be hundreds of millions of gallons. HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS.

They've already used, according to their own website, most of their dispersant. Any current attempts at fixes are strictly trial and error. The boons are failing -- both because of the wind and sea conditions slopping the oil over and under, but also they're just plain falling apart.

And one big question remains unanswered. Apparently the BOP is undamaged, yet they are unable to get it to work. What if there is simply too much pressure for it to work. Maybe nothing will get it to work, inluding another BOP on top of it (one of the new contingency plans)?

The bottom line is that the effects from this -- from destroyed coast, to dead zones in the gulf, to the unthinkable if it gets into the gulf stream -- will be apparent for decades.

I really think things may be different this time.

[Mojorabbit]

13. Hello, please what is BOP? Thanks! nt

[northernlights]

17. BOP = Blow Out Preventor

that's the valve that failed -- it was supposed to automatically turn on if it sensed a problem with the rig. That's the thing that can be operated remotely by audio signal -- that other countries require but the US, in its determination to please BIG OIL, decided is too expensive for the poor widdle oil bidness.

They've tried to turn it on repeatedly via robotic subs or somesuch, but it hasn't engaged.

One of the new contingency plans is to shove the current BOP out of the way and put a new one on top of it -- all at a mile down under incredible pressure...

[Mojorabbit]

27. Thanks! nt

[Javaman]

18. I would really like to hope so...

but we are a nation and world that are addicted to oil.

We like to rant and rave about the oil corps but we still go to the well for our fix.

Perhaps BP won't survive this. No big deal, some other oil interest will sweep in to buy up the interests.

One note about all of this is: I have yet to hear anything from OPEC. Funny how that is.

They are purposely keeping a tight lip.

Why insert themselves into a situation that will give them nothing but bad press.

However, I do fully expect them to be circling BP's carcass, in hopes of picking and choosing the pieces they want.

The sad part about all of this is: there maybe a gigantic fall out from this spill, but because the media is controlled by roughly 5 billionaires who also happen to be right wing and who also have interests in the oil industry, they are right now using the peoples disgust to their own advantage to make a ratings killing.

However, once money starts entering the picture, expect a virtual media black out with "occasional" updates about the legal action.

If things begin to go south, the rich will divest of their oil interests, thus more media outrage.

What I expect is a long protracted legal battle which in the long run will have either no effect or a massive positive effect and the story molds.

Look at the exxon valdez, that should have killed exxon, but here we had several recent years where they had record breaking profit.

Now you know why I titled this piece the way I did.

[northernlights]

22. Valdez was a very, very different scenario

First, very remote, unlike the gulf coast which is 1. highly populated and 2.tourist mecca visited by millions annually. That makes it much, much harder for media spin to get any traction. Too many people will be witnessing and living the damage.

Communications have changed. The uncontrolled internet wasn't a major media force. The car bomb in Times Square eclisped this for a moment or two. And then more bad news on this. And the bad news will just keep coming.

Valdez was a limited spill. The contents of the Valdez controlled the amount of oil being spilled. This is a gusher that could go completely uncontrolled at any point in time. Sitting on top of possibly 10s of millions of barrels (hundreds of millions of gallons) of oil. 90 days to drill a relief well is an optimistic estimate -- and so far *all* the optimistic estimates have turned out to be pipedreams. There could literally be enough to end up on the UK shores, killing everything on its way there.

The bottom line is they have absolutely no way to stop this, and everything they try will be on the front news. Everything now is trial and error, 5,000 feet deep. They've already, by their own words, thrown everything they have at it. They haven't made a dent. Their website says they've already used approx. 3/4s of their disperser -- on less than 2% of the oil released so far. That's a couple days out of date, most likely.

[Blue_In_AK]

25. I think you're right that this will get much more media attention

than the EXXON VALDEZ did. Of course, it was 24/7 news up here at the time, and the damages were terrible to the fishermen and wildlife in Prince William Sound, but my guess is in the Lower 48 it played out kind of like that Australian spill did. "Oh, that's terrible, but it's on the other side of the world and it doesn't affect me day to day." This one in the Gulf will be in your faces.

I feel so bad for the people along the Coast who depend on the water for their livelihoods. They will be damaged for decades, if they EVER recover.

[Javaman]

26. Let's hope so.

but being the cynic I am, I choose to believe that the media cycle will dictate differently.

[amborin]

14. K&R hard not to be cynical; unlikely any pols will do the right thing here

[marions ghost]

20. I'm afraid you're right

:grr: :nuke: :grr:

[Blue_In_AK]

23. A penny on the dollar is all that Exxon had to pay

of the award the jury thought was fair.

I am sure your scenario is correct.

[Hannah Bell]

24. it hasn't paid a cent of the punitive damages yet that i've heard.

took it to the supreme court in 2008 & now back in the lower courts was the last i heard.

Original damage award = $5 billion (one year's profit then)
SC determination (20 years later) = $500 million
Exxon wants to pay only $25 million
Last year's profit = $19 billion
Last year's taxes = $0

[Panfilo]

28. Some of the most senstive habitat in the world

with an amazing variety of bird plant and animal life will be destroyed, according to a scientist I heard on NPR. Species which don't exist anywhere else. Let this be the end of oil.

[Althaia]

29. the lawyer's shenanigans have started already...

...BP is offering settlements to residents of coastal Alabama, with a focus on the fishing communities, if they give up their right to sue. The amount offered is insultingly low - a maximum of $5000.

http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/bp-offering-5k-quick-cash-poor-fishin

The tragedy is that this offer might be the fishermen's best possible deal. I agree that BP will take decades to resolve any lawsuits, just like Exxon is still doing.

[Javaman]

30. I know I saw that.

This is the forward operation troops.

Quell the masses with "shut up and take it" bribes.

If somebody got a clue, the fishermen would band together to form a coalition against BP.

Right now, BP is trying the old divide and conquer with these payoffs.

5k is nothing more than a few mortgage payments. In the time this is finally settled, that won't amount to much more than a fart in the wind.

BP and these lawyers are the lowest form of scum on the earth.

I can hear them cackling in their offices, "let's go ruin some more lives!!"

[Bjorn Against]

31. You read my mind...

I have been saying the exact same thing, we will be fortunate if BP pays out even 5% of the total cleanup costs. The other 95% will either be paid by us ordinary Americans or by no one at all, much of the mess is sure to be washed up on our beaches for generations to come with no one to clean it up. Those who tell us that BP is going to cover the entire cost of the cleanup have either been misled or they are lying because BP has no intention of paying for any more than a small fraction of the damage they have caused.

[lunatica]

32. It's getting pretty predictable isn't it?

How sad.

[tavalon]

33. You'll get no argument from me

I think I might be the only liberal left on earth who refuses to get gas or anything for that matter at Exxon. When Mobil and Exxon merged, I canceled my Mobil card. I was offended when BP went for their "green campaign" though even I couldn't have imagined the coming irony.

[Yuugal]

34. K&R

[troubledamerican]

35. Time to move forward. Don't dwell on the past.

LOL

[caseymoz]

36. While I hope not, this may be something far bigger.

Something that actually breaks the status quo. This could be huge, that is, on an oceanic or global scale.

If that's the case, getting BP to pay liabilities will be the least of our worries.

If we escape this with a lighter sentence, this also has the potential to ruin the economies in some of the most conservative states, discrediting de-regulated capitalism in the very heart of its constituency.

There are accidents like Three Mile Island which make only minor changes, and then there are accidents like Chernobyl, which herald widespread changes. This may be the latter. If it doesn't destroy the world.

[Javaman]

37. I learned this morning that liability payout, is currently capped $75 million.

Congress is working on changing it to $10 billion.

We will see what happens. I'm not holding my breath.

[flamingdem]

38. ONE PERSON can make a difference, instead of whining start a movement nt

[Javaman]

40. I don't whine I point out the failure of our society.

If you are equally concerned, then why don't you start a movement?

Don't confuse cynicism with whining or don't you know the difference?

[florida08]

39. I'm a cynic too

but agree with northernlights that this time will be different at least more accountability. Why? Because in 2006 Alaska BP was sued by federal and state because of the Prudhoe Bay oil spill. The Department of Justice filed on behalf of the Environmental Protection Agency and pipeline regulators that focused on violations of pollution laws. 2 oil spills of 212,0000 gallons on land.

From Wiki
In October 2007, BP was fined US$20 million for the Prudhoe Bay oil spills. BP has paid a US$12 million federal criminal fine, US$4 million in criminal restitution to the state, and US$4 million for Arctic research. BP's local subsidiary, BP Exploration (Alaska) Inc., was placed on probation for three years.

Following the Prudhoe Bay pipeline leak in March 2006, due to slow progress in stopping the oil spill, BP was forced to shut down its Prudhoe Bay oil facility, which produced about 2.6% of the United States demand for gasoline. The scenario was a contributing factor for pushing the price of oil to USD$77 per barrel in August 2006.

Now here we are again. They're going to pay big for this and if there's a hint of malfeasant, and from what I've read there is, because of the faulty shutoff valve they installed failed half the time prior to their installing it. Trying to use this a mile down where pressure was known to be extremely high is just ridiculous.

From CNN

The failure of the "shear ram," the set of steel blades intended to slash through a pipe at the top of a well and close off the flow of crude, should not have surprised BP or the corporations that work for it. Eight years ago, the Minerals Management Service found that 50 percent of the shear rams tested failed. So calling the failure of the "last resort device" an accident is like calling the damage caused by a drunken driver an accident. Failure to take the proper precautions is not an accident; it's negligence.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/05/03/brazile.oil.new.orleans/

The question is what will gas go to?