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So I bought 300 shares of BP stock today.

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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:22 AM
Original message
So I bought 300 shares of BP stock today.
Edited on Fri Apr-30-10 12:07 PM by Statistical
First oil stock I have ever owned directly. Until now the only energy stock I owned was First Solar (FSLR), great company BTW leading the market into lower solar prices.

Got an averaged priced of $51.97 a share.

Now the spill is bad and it will be expensive and BP will and should pay for it but the over reaction is insane. The markets just seems to have way over reacted to the effects of the spill and not by 10% or 20% or even 50% but by a magnitude.

Stock price of BP has declined from $61 to $52. Since BP has 3.13 billion shares that is a reduction in the market cap (or value of company) of roughly $27 billion. The spill is going to cost a lot (and so will the fines, and the higher insurance in future, and bad PR, and protesters) but not $27 billion.

Say it takes BP 90 days to cap the well:
Loss of Rig :$350 million (loss is less because BP has insurance)
Loss of oil: $80 * 5,000 barrels * 90 = $36 million
Current Cleanup/mitigation: $6 million per day * 90 = $540 million
Long Term cleanup: ??? say another billion (roughly equal to Valdez)
Fines: ???? $100 million seems higher than what our govt will actually do but lets go with it.
Lawsuits: $500 million (Valdez total damages $527 million).
Total: In the ballpark of $2 to $2.5 billion.

Say it is roughly twice as bad as Valdez that would be $4 to $5 billion

Markets overreaction: $27 billion.

On edit: forgot to include lawsuit damages in post. updated numbers to reflect.
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ecstatic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
1. Must be nice nt
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maxsolomon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
2. redo your math
i think you meant 100 million in fines
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:29 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. Done. Thanks.
the fines is just a guestimate. Maybe it is 10x that but still markets downgrade is $27 billion which is in a whole new league.
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DJ13 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
3. In a rational market your investment would be kinda dumb
Edited on Fri Apr-30-10 11:29 AM by DJ13
But the way the market seems determined to be a new bubble, and contrarian is the new normal....... it might work out for you... in the short term.
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. Agreed.
Edited on Fri Apr-30-10 11:34 AM by Statistical
The term is "perfect market". In a perfect market the cost of any event would be properly factored into the price of a stock at all times. The only way to gain wealth would be based on underlying performance of company.

Still our markets are anything but "perfect". Over reactions both positive and negative are rather common.

Still I am ready to average down and buy another 200 shares around $47 if it turns out I am wrong.
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Kokonoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:29 AM
Response to Original message
4. If over reaction is insane then figure it in the price.
But its not over, the damage is just beginning.
bush is not president, so I would sell.
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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:34 AM
Response to Original message
7. Bottom fishing
It's a perfectly valid investment strategy.
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TreasonousBastard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:37 AM
Response to Original message
8. Yah never know. I suspect there may be a cap on cleanup expenses...
and fines similar to the one one the 1970 Water Quality Improvement Act, but there won't be much of a cap on lawsuits from everyone within smelling distance from the shore. And admiralty lawyers start the clock at around 500 bucks an hour for everyone sitting at the table-- I've been to hearings, depositions, and such where every lawyer remotely involved and with nothing else to do that morning showed up for the billable hours.

And there's a lot more gonna be destroyed on the Louisiana and Mississippi waterfront than there was in ALaska.

Only 350 million for a rig? Seems low, but I've been away from the business for a while.

But, OK, yeah, 27 billion is a lot of money. I'd guess they have enough cash lying around for just a few billion.



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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:52 AM
Response to Reply #8
15. True that is another potential cost.
Exxon had to pay $507 million in damages. They delayed it two decades so judge slapped them with an extra $480 billion in interest.

I guess we can expect lawsuits in similar amounts here but I doubt you are going to win a lawsuit on smell only.
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rfranklin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:37 AM
Response to Original message
9. The same thing happened with Bhopal...
I said to my wife, 'they will never adequately compensate those poor Indians for what they have done.'

Unfortunately, I had no money to buy Union Carbide.

(Templeton, which ahd a big position in Union Carbide, rushed in and bought up the shares that panicked investors had dumped and profited handsomely.)
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:38 AM
Response to Original message
10. That was stupid
Making an investment using stupid projections.

BP means BankruPt. It will not survive like Exxon did. The Gulf Coast will be ruined, and unlike Alaska, the Gulf coast is populated.

Best sell and take your losses.
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. LOL.
BP will be bankrupt. I bookmarked this.

Any investment has risk and I may end up losing money on the trade. If you want risk free then buy Treasury bonds.

Still BP bankrupt. Really?
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Divine Discontent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #11
14. you're leaving unknown lawsuits out of your figures...
it could be tens of billions, if not more. hopefully the disaster won't be "too bad". but we'll see.
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #14
16. thanks. I did forget to include it in the OP but I considered it.
Edited on Fri Apr-30-10 12:08 PM by Statistical
Exxon ended up having to may $507 billion in damages. Since they were an ass and delayed payment for two decades. Judge slapped them with $408 billion in interest. I updated the post to reflect that.

If the disaster is comparable to Valdez we can expect similar damages. Still even consider it being 200% of Valdez and they end up paying 400% of what Exxon paid in damages. That would be ballpark $2 billion.

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harkadog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #16
69. That is million in damages and interest not billion
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closeupready Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:03 PM
Response to Reply #14
32. Courts will probably mandate that lawsuits be filed under a class action suit.
They did this with 9/11 and other such disasters.
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:55 AM
Response to Reply #11
18. Question
How much did it cost for all that oil that is flowing freely?

Did you factor that? Is there a dollar figure on that in your numbers?

Believe it or not, it is probably gonna cost BP about $1 million for each free barrel of oil they let loose, since BP totally screwed up.
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 12:02 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. "Believe it or not, it is probably gonna cost BP about $1 million for each free barrel of oil"
1 million dollar per barrel? Really?

By that logic it should have cost Exxon about $250 billion. The cost was a "tiny" fraction of that.

Is BP evil? No doubt.
Are they stupid by blocking regulation which ultimately would have prevented this billion dollar accident? yup
Should be be punished? Of course.

Is it going to cost them $1 mil per barrel? Not even close.

I did calculate the value of oil lost as well as mitigation costs (ongoing $6 mil daily) and long term cleanup costs (roughly equal to Valdez).
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 12:15 PM
Response to Reply #21
27. Yep. 1 million per
To clean it all up if it gets even halfway into Florida, too. Gonna take forever to clean the beaches. Alaska still has oil there. Florida will not allow that.

Exxon got away pretty much free. BP will not be so lucky.
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dmallind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:55 AM
Response to Reply #10
17. When? When will BP be bankrupt? Want to sell me BP shares for $5 each dated then? Please? NT
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #17
20. Sorry
Not a capitalist. Otherwise, sure, I'd screw you too. You're safe from me.
Goldman Sachs, not so much. I pity you.
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dmallind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:29 PM
Response to Reply #20
42. Well that's convenient. Courage of convictions? Nah.....
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 02:00 PM
Response to Reply #42
53. Heh
WTF is that supposed to mean?

If you want to buy BP stock don't ask me to sell you some. Jeez, that is stupid.
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dmallind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #53
56. Nope - it means you will pontificate but don't REALLY think you are right
Or you would jump at the chance to take money off a stupid capitalist like me> I am sure money is convenient even to you, and the joy of taking it from a lapdog of the corporatist bourgeoisie or whatever sophomoric wannabe revolutionary terminology you prefer would surely be a bonus if you REALLY believed BP was going to be bankrupt in the forseeable future. And you don't even need to sully your proletariat hands with the filthy stocks themselves - just bet on what their value would be.....


Easy money for the taking....IF you were really confident.
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 04:42 PM
Response to Reply #56
57. heh
It is too early to tell. Who knows, BP might skate and it will be someone else who goes down. Right now its hard to tell. They might even cap the well or something happens to keep the oil from reaching mid-Florida.

But you just go on with your bad self. This situation is likely to cost a great many people a great deal of pain and with justice the way it is these days, you may just be a big winner as the corporations escape liability.

Ya feeling happy now?
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Divine Discontent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:46 AM
Response to Original message
12. you must have a lot of money to risk
throw some in a prize pool for us poor DUers! ha


good luck on your investment. I wouldn't want to own any stock in an oil company, personally.
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CountAllVotes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. me either
BP = EXXON IMO.

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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 11:57 AM
Response to Reply #12
19. I don't really consider it a long term investment.
Hopefully make a profit and sell it off.

Long term solar, wind, nuclear companies, as well as the steel companies (wind & nuclear are steel heavy).

Oil is a dying business. They will continue to make money for next couple decades but future growth will become increasingly impossible to maintain. There is only so much oil and prices can only go so high before it forces people to change (electric vehicles, alternative energy, higher mileage standards, etc).

Without resource expansion and limited price expansion is is technically impossible for companies to continue to grow.
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librechik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 12:04 PM
Response to Original message
22. it'll be lower in a week or two
I'd wait if I were buying any of that shit--I guess I shouldn't be picky since I already buy their gas--
I'm broke right now, though no investment for me...
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #22
25. Could be.
Edited on Fri Apr-30-10 12:26 PM by Statistical
Timing the bottom is tough on stocks though. I bought half here and put in a limit order to buy other half @ about 10% lower if it gets that low.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 12:06 PM
Response to Original message
23. Who did you buy it for though?
Yourself or a client?

Don
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. I am not a broker. I bought it for myself.
I have little doubt Republicans will rape SS to death by the time I retire. I figure if I don't have enough to retire on in my name then I will be a lifetime greeter at Walmart and buying lots of cat food (I don't own a cat).
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 12:15 PM
Response to Reply #24
26. Greeter at Walmart is going to be considered one of the few good jobs before long
Edited on Fri Apr-30-10 12:23 PM by NNN0LHI
Just watch and see.

Good luck on your investment. And I mean that sincerely.

Don
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yellowcanine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #24
29. You should consider this to be gambling, not retirement investing.
Just sayin.
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:03 PM
Response to Reply #29
34. Why?
It is my belief the drop in stock prices is not warranted by change in underlying fundamentals but rather by overreaction.
Now that premise may be wrong but that premise determines the investment not the outcome.

Investing based on fundamentals is gambling?

Last year BP made $25 billion before taxes. My estimate (which may be wrong but is based on similar disasters) will cost BP roughly $2 in profit at the maximum (and may be substantially less). That would be about 8% of the companies pre-tax profit for a single year.
An 8% decline in pre-tax profit on a one time event doesn't warrant a 14% decline in stock price.
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greencharlie Donating Member (827 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 12:22 PM
Response to Original message
28. At least ROULETTE has a 47.3% chance for a 100% ROI,,, nt
enjoy the ponzi scheme...
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Cali_Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 12:58 PM
Response to Original message
30. If I were you, I would have waited a little bit
The stock may be undervalued, but I wouldn't buy it when news of the gulf coast disaster keeps coming out.

Every picture of a cute little bird covered in oil will send the stock price down further.
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:05 PM
Response to Reply #30
35. I saved funds for another 200 shares.
Often trying to pick the bottom of a stock if difficult.
Nothing worse than having the premise right and miss the bottom only to watch stock rebound 15% or more.

I gave up trying to time market long time ago.

By 300 shares now, 200 more at 10% lower if necessary. If stock declines 5% further than that (<$45) then re-evaluate the position and possibly purchase more depending on the current situation.

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JPZenger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:02 PM
Response to Original message
31. I wish I didn't own BP
I own some BP stock and I wish I didn't. I'll sell it as soon as it recovers enough so I don't lose too much money on it.

I don't wanted to own stock in a company that has been so irresponsible in so many ways, including letting the Alaskan pipeline rust until it leaked, letting refineries explode, not putting enough work into employee safety, reducing their commitment to solar power, etc.
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cbdo2007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:03 PM
Response to Original message
33. This is hilarious - all this for what a 12% increase over the next 3 months???
Most likely the stock price isn't even reacting that much to the oil spill, they had a drop bigger than this one in January 2010.

Would have been much smarter to get an ETF for Double the Russell 2000 or something on this down day. Much bigger return over the "short term" that you think you're in this for.

How much of a loss are you willing to see before selling?
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #33
36. "all this for what a 12% increase over the next 3 months"
Edited on Fri Apr-30-10 01:28 PM by Statistical
Yeah I know 48% annualized return, can barely keep up with inflation on returns like that.

If I make half that I will be very happy.

I guess my definition of "short term" is a lot longer than yours. I think my definition of good return is slightly more realistic too.

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cbdo2007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #36
61. ha ha, the laughs keep coming here....
see my other post for a link to the list of 2,691 stocks that have gotten over 12% in the past three months.

I'm glad you like your 48% annual return. Here is a list of the 1,165 companies with 100% increase over the past year.

http://www.google.com/finance/stockscreener#c0=Price52WeekPercChange&min0=100®ion=us§or=AllSectors&sort=&sortOrder=

With the risk involved here, you probably will only make half that much. If you're going to invest at all, why not put in an hour of research and really pick a great company with huge potential for the next year? Rather than a company that is in the news for an environmental catastrophe and had performed worse than 50% of all other companies out there over the past year even BEFORE the catastrophe??????

People - anyone else reading this - This guy is the perfect example of people who lose money in the stock market. Buy a shitty company based on a hairbrained idea related to a news story they saw on tv - this is a great lesson of how NOT to pick stocks.
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Dreamer Tatum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:22 PM
Response to Reply #33
39. If you have a better investment than 12% in one quarter, please tell me
um, yeah. Thought so.
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cbdo2007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 04:49 PM
Response to Reply #39
58. Really??? Have you been paying attention at all this year?
Here you go:

http://www.google.com/finance/stockscreener#c0=Price13WeekPercChange&min0=12®ion=us§or=AllSectors&sort=&sortOrder=

In the past 13 weeks - 2,691 companies have had an increase greater than 12%

Including:

Apple - 24.84%
GE - 16.26%
Citigroup - 39.06%
Disney - 23.77%
Home Depot - 26.40%
Ford - 14.72%
Caterpillar - 29.06%
Time Warner - 22.67%

Can you still not find any????? ha ha.

Sure in a normal market - 12% annual would be great. In this market - 12% is about average and HARDLY worth the risk in this case.
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Dreamer Tatum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #58
66. That's history. Not the future. nt
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Cali_Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #33
43. 12% over 3 months is AWESOME
Many fund managers would KILL for that kind of return.
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cbdo2007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #43
62. Many fund managers would be fired for that kind of return right now.
http://screen.morningstar.com/FundSearch/FundRank.html

I'll assume this doesn't need explanation.
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Cali_Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 06:01 PM
Response to Reply #62
65. 12% every 3 months is excellent regardless
Edited on Fri Apr-30-10 06:07 PM by Cali_Democrat
Compounded, it's even better. Of course there are other opportunities at a higher rate which are even better....obviously.

Think about it like having a good looking girlfriend. Sure she may not be a supermodel from Brazil, but she's still great! :)
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greiner3 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:17 PM
Response to Original message
37. I could have bought;
Halliburton in 2002 for a dance. I could have bought goldman sachs 10 years ago for not much more. However, I do have to look at myself in the mirror at least twice a day (to brush my teeth) that I find your economic twiddle useless to me. May you live in economically interesting times.
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #37
44. You are aware when you buy stock on the market you aren't buying it from the company right?
The money I paid for the stock went to the previous owner of the shares and the shares I received came from the previous owner.

The underlying company isn't involved in the trade one way or the other.

Prior to purchase
Me: $$$$
Investor "X": 300 shares of BP

After purchase
Me: 300 shares of BP
Investor "X": $$$$

The net effect on BP bottom line was exactly 0.0%.

On the other hand Americas addition to poor mileage standards continually improves BP bottom line.
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MadHound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:17 PM
Response to Original message
38. First of all, learn your mathematical terms.
An order of magnitude means by a factor of ten, ie the stock went down from $61 to $6.10. Secondly, I think that you're not accounting for several unknowns in there. One of the big ones is the amount of damage that is going to be done to the Gulf Coast. BP could be very well on the hook for a lot more money than you think.

Finally, why are you buying shares in a company that, through its greed and quest for profit, skimped on basic safety protocols, like functioning blowout valves, in order to extract more profit. Now our already fragile ecosystem is going to take an incredible hit, and all you see is a chance to make money? Wow, that's an incredibly skewed moral compass that you've got there.

There are other, cleaner, greener energy stocks you can invest in, most overseas. You would do much better, both ethically and economically by purchasing them.

Yes, I know it is your money, your decision, but don't you think that you have a responsibility to help this world out as much as you can? Or is simply all about the money?
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:28 PM
Response to Reply #38
41. My purchase of shares from a third party neither helps nor hurts BP.
If you owned share in BP I bought them then my money goes to you and your shares come to me.
BP doesn't gain or lose in that transaction.

As far as making money. The disaster happened me sitting here watching stock beyond over next 3 months won't make the disaster happen any less.

On magnitude....
Well maybe my wording was unclear. The cost to BP is roughly $2 billion yet the stock sold off so much is erase $20 billion plus in magnitude. Hence the the reduction in market cap was a magnitude greater than a realistic assessment of the situation warrants.

I don't see my BP purchase as an investment but rather a trade. An opportunity to capitalize between the difference is perception (change in market capitalization) and reality.
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MadHound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:43 PM
Response to Reply #41
46. Your owning BP stock does support the company
If you hadn't purchased, via a third party or otherwise, then those stocks may or may not have been traded elsewhere.

But the fact is you now own a certain portion of BP, it says so right on the stock that you just purchased. Congratulations, you are now part of the problem, not part of the solution. You now own part of this disaster.

As far as what you believe your future profits are going to be, I think that you're seriously underestimating the backlash and bad publicity that BP is going to suffer from this. Having a ninety day plus national disaster continue to be in the news cycle as more and more of our Gulf Coast is destroyed, well, I think a lot of folks are going to switch from BP. I myself had to fill up the tank yesterday. Normally I fill it up at the BP down the road. Instead, I filled it up at another company in town, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Congratulations, your share of BP just lost a miniscule amount of value. Multiply that by a few million or more and your shares are going to go down.

Yes, we all need gas and electricity, and none of us are pure in that regard (though some of us are much better than others). But to deliberately invest in a company whose actions and safety actions in this matter are questionable at best, and let to what very well could be the worst oil disaster in our history, sorry, but that simply shows a glaring lack of ethics on your part. What's next, investing in Northrup Grumman because they make those cool drones that are killing innocents in Pakistan?
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #46
47. "then those stocks may or may not have been traded elsewhere. "
That simply shows a complete understanding of how the market works.

As does this:
"Congratulations, your share of BP just lost a miniscule amount of value. Multiply that by a few million or more and your shares are going to go down. "

While it is true BP will lose marketshare the market has already discounted a massive amount (1/6th) of the companies market cap. So it is possible marketshare will be lost but the amount loss will be less than the market is anticipating and thus shares will rise even when company announces earnings/marektshare/revenue is down.

No problems though, I wish you no ill will despite your need to see me lose money. It is certainly possible I will. I never claimed it was without risk. Still buying Toyota at the height of the media cycle would have been profitable.
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Biker13 Donating Member (609 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 07:20 PM
Response to Reply #46
81. BBC
BP spokeswoman Sheila William told AFP news agency the energy firm was prepared to assume costs for the clean-up and for damages.

The BBC's business correspondent, Joe Lynam, says that BP has no external insurance cover in the traditional sense, instead using a form of "self insurance" to cover major events like this.

The company would therefore have to cover the full cost of any legitimate compensation claims from the oil spill from its own resources, our correspondent says.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8655683.stm
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BlooInBloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #38
80. Everyone who has a 401k owns stock in a lot of shitty companies...
Ripping on people for owning stock in shitty companies is therefore just fucking stupid.
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blindpig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:25 PM
Response to Original message
40. I hope you lose your ass.

Taking ownership of the spill eh?

Mebbe you can take your payout in oiled birds, dead sea turtles and ruined livelihoods.
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Electric Monk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 04:53 PM
Response to Reply #40
59. +1
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Liberal_in_LA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 04:14 PM
Response to Reply #40
72. hey, it's his/her money
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alarimer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:35 PM
Response to Original message
45. I hope this company is sued into oblivion.
Edited on Fri Apr-30-10 01:37 PM by alarimer
I hope your investment is soon worth 0.

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Toasterlad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:53 PM
Response to Original message
48. Thanks. I Didn't Realize This Spill Was All About Stocks and Money
I actually thought it might be about damage to the environment. What a relief to know I was overreacting! It's only about the money!

That's a load off my mind.
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:55 PM
Response to Reply #48
51. Cause & Effect.
My purchase of stock didn't cause the spill.
Had I not purchased stock today the spill wouldn't be any better.

If you need to hate me instead of the problem that is fine. I am a big boy and won't get hurt.
Maybe it will do you some good to have a target for your feelings.
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Toasterlad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 02:10 PM
Response to Reply #51
54. Don't Flatter Yourself, Sweetie.
I don't hate you. Merely expressing my distaste for your need to gloat over your small profit from this environmental disaster.

I have many, MANY targets for my "feelings".
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 02:12 PM
Response to Reply #54
55. I would see it as profiting over other investors (many who are long term holders of BP).
Their fear is the potential for my gain.

I wasn't really gloating and I haven't made a profit yet.

I think in the OP I simply outlined a case for why I believe the market has overreacted to the situation and that provides the potential for profit of course nothing is without risk.
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blindpig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 04:58 PM
Response to Reply #55
60. Proof positive...

that capitalism encourages assholery.
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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:53 PM
Response to Original message
49. Geez, I thought you were going to say so you could screw with the MFs at the shareholders' meeting..
Instead you tell us about your excitement at the prospect your ownership in the oil spill will rise.

One statement you should correct: about how the money for share trades just goes to the seller and doesn't help BP. I doubt you believe that yourself, though I guess it helps you feel good.

Share price is everything to the shareholders, who in the end determine management and policy. Presumably that management also owns shares, as is now the common practice. Share price has an influence on the ability to raise new capital via credit and issues, debt ratings and what not. It's the market's vote of confidence in a firm - and an industry. Of course, any capital that goes into oil company shares isn't going into the badly needed alternative energies.
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:59 PM
Response to Reply #49
52. I don't intend to hold the stock long enough to make it to shareholders meetings.
Still if something utterly bizarre happens and I a still have voting shares by the time next meeting comes around I will vote by proxy and to the detriment of current management. I routinely vote shares by proxy in various companies to support shareholder initiatives/proposals especially ones towards more sustainability. They rarely win though. The big institutions control far too much of the vote.
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Forkboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 01:54 PM
Response to Original message
50. Sad
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Matariki Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 05:23 PM
Response to Original message
63. I'm going to ask the obvious
Don't you feel any sort of moral repulsion to owning part of a company responsible for one of the worse ecological disasters EVER?

I couldn't do that. I would feel that I was taking on a huge burden of culpability in becoming an owner of that company's stock.

You should go to the Gulf coast and help with the clean up. See the effect of how you are spending your money.
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-30-10 05:45 PM
Response to Reply #63
64. I just consider it a trade. Not a long term investment.
In theory markets should be perfect. The price of every stock, commodity, good equals the true value however they aren't.

There is IMHO a discrepancy between selling price of BP shares and the underlying asset.
I intend to exploit that discrepancy and then sell it.

If I a correct I will profit. If I am not then I won't. Either way I don't intend to hold BP stock for more than a couple months. My purchase and sell of BP (roughly 1/10 millionth) of the company will not material affect the companies operation or profits.
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Matariki Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 03:07 PM
Response to Reply #64
67. Yeah, obviously it's very abstract to you. Still think you should go to the Gulf and help clean up.
It would be good for your moral/ethical development.
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harkadog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 04:08 PM
Response to Reply #67
70. Do you work? Do you any type of pension plan? 401k?
If so you probably own BP too. Most funds own the stock. People who have pensions plans have this same "moral responsibility". Yet they aren't heading for the Gulf. They are hiding behind their computers.
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northernlights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 04:22 PM
Response to Reply #70
75. um, yeah I have a pension plan
over which I have ZERO control. I can't roll it out. I can't touch it. I have no say over its investments. None.

And at my current job, our VP recently sent out an email informing us that they will be opening 401Ks on our behalf as part of their profit-sharing plan -- including for those of us who OPTED OUT of the 401K plan.

I'm waiting for the confirmation statement on mine. At which point I intend to call the company they opened it with and order them to close it and expunge my information from their systems...or face a criminal complaint to the FTC and FBI for identity theft,as well as a complaint to the SEC.

I did NOT authorize them to open a 401K using my private information. In fact -- when I OPTED OUT I EXPRESSLY INSTRUCTED THEM TO NOT OPEN ONE.

So yeah, I may or may not "own" a piece of BP. Not by choice and there's not a damn thing I can do to stop it. I had no say in the pension and the company I currently work for used my private and personal information for their own benefit (they "investing" my bonus in one of their client's funds...the most fee-intensive one)fand against my express instructions.

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Matariki Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #70
76. No actually. I've chosen my funds very carefully.
My work offers SRI choices and I choose individual stocks that pass the Calvert Social Index screens. I've passed up funds that have a good return because they contain individual companies I find unethical, war profiteers or bad to the environment. That's one of my first criteria before picking stocks. http://www.calvertgroup.com/sri-index.html

You could also have made a good profit in the 30's buying Degesch or IG Farben if you know what I'm saying.

The human mind has a remarkable capacity to rationalize selfish behavior. That's why it's important to decide on one's ethics and stick to them scrupulously.

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Matariki Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #64
68. Let me also say that the attitude that ethics in investing is somehow naive
is a big part of why stuff like this oil spill happened in the first place.

Putting money before every other consideration.

Just a trade, indeed.
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northernlights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 04:10 PM
Response to Original message
71. The "overreaction" is insane?!?
You know what? My head was about to explode...and I was going to flame you. And then I realized...it will be your loss. This is SO much worse than Valdez...you have no idea how bad this has the potential to become.

Satellite photography shows the slick TRIPLED IN SIZE in 24 hours.

Worst case scenario? What last remnants of controlling hardware breaks apart and it gushes some unknown amount over 8 million barrels a day. Yes -- controlled wells in the region pump 8+ million barrels a day -- nobody knows how much an uncontrolled well can gush. In that kind of scenario, the oil can travel around southern Florida into the Atlantic, and get caught in the Gulf Stream.

Don't think the worst case scenario is implausible, either. There is no existing technology to do what they are attempting to do. Nothing has been tried these depths. At the rate it's gushing, nobody's likely to be able to manufacture chemical dispersers fast enough to keep up. So far, every thing that has been done has been based on an underestimate of the problem. And once they finally admitted to the magnitude and actually started to try to contain it, the weather changed and has prevented containment and vacuum methods from working. It will be months before the new wells can be drilled...and nobody is sure that will work either.

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NCarolinawoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 04:15 PM
Response to Original message
73. Ugh.
:banghead: :thumbsdown: :puke:
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Bluebear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 04:16 PM
Response to Original message
74. Good luck!!!!1 As long as you get yours!!
PS whether you did it or not is your business, but it would the LAST thing I would be advertising.
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catzies Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 06:13 PM
Response to Original message
77. I'm waiting to buy Goldman Sachs, if it dips a little more, but before Blankfein resigns
Which he will have to do shortly.

Never wanted to own HAL, though, that's too much blood for me.
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BlooInBloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 06:16 PM
Response to Original message
78. Wouldn't it have been wise to wait and see if new regulations are coming?
Which would tend to depress the price more?
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-01-10 06:18 PM
Response to Original message
79. Oh man
Edited on Sat May-01-10 06:31 PM by jpak
what was I thinking?

BP IS MAKING A KILLING OUTTA THIS!!111

:puke:

:thumbsdown:

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cbdo2007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-03-10 10:54 AM
Response to Original message
82. HAHAHAHa - had to read this post again today and laugh about it again
Edited on Mon May-03-10 10:55 AM by cbdo2007
Down 7% or $1,100 so far.

I'm guessing this is going to be a long "short term" trade for you as you hold on longer and longer for it to recover.

There is so much safer, easy money out there on the stock market you could have bought rather than this one which is nothing more than a crap shoot.
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walldude Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-03-10 11:04 AM
Response to Original message
83. You're bragging about this on DU?
Edited on Mon May-03-10 11:04 AM by walldude
You came on a left leaning website to brag about making money off of an environmental disaster?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Good luck.
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