The Rise of the Liberal Democratic Party in Britain

[marmar]

from the Guardian UK:



Nick Clegg now in contention as potential PM, Guardian/ICM poll shows
Boost for Lib Dems as ComRes survey shows Nick Clegg's party gaining 14 points among those who watched last night's TV debate

Julian Glover and Hélène Mulholland
guardian.co.uk, Friday 16 April 2010 14.33 BST


Nick Clegg has surged into contention as a potential prime minister, according to a Guardian/ICM poll carried out following last night's TV leaders' debate.

A quarter of voters who watched the three leaders on the ITV programme say they will switch their vote, with most changing to the Liberal Democrats.

Clegg emerges from the telephone poll as the overwhelming winner, with 51% who watched saying he came out on top. David Cameron and Gordon Brown trail in far behind: 20% say Cameron won and 19% Brown.

The poll, based on a sample of 505 voters who had previously told ICM how they would vote, found Conservative and Labour supporters also thought Clegg won the event. While 44% of Tories thought Cameron won, 46% thought Clegg did. Among Labour voters, 43% said Brown won, and 44% Clegg.

The Guardian poll coincides with a survey of voting intentions carried out by ComRes for ITV. It showed support for the Conservatives was unchanged at 35%, with Labour down one point on 28%, and the Lib Dems up three on 24%. ..........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/16/nick-clegg-guardian-icm-poll-pm

[MisterP]

1. a meaningful alternative to neoliberal ass-raping?

this isn't NADER Underground, marmar!!!!!!!!

[Hippo_Tron]

9. The UK has a parliamentary system

Supporting a third party in the UK has drastically different consequences than supporting a third party in the US since ideologically similar parties can form a governing coalition.

[Ebadlun]

2. Calm down...

I wish it were so, but really the Lib Dems have no hope of winning. The poll was of people who actually watched the debate (less than 10 million I believe) - the full opinion poll still has them in third place.

Plus our creaking electoral system is stacked in favour of the big parties - in 1983 the Liberal/SDP alliance (who later merged to become todays Lib Dems) won 25% of the vote and got 3.5% of the seats in parliament!

The best we can hope for is a hung parliament in which the Liberals can make a few progressive demands (such as proportional representation) in return for propping up a minority Labour government, but even that is optimistic.

[HipChick]

4. +100...a coalition government..-

I knew Shirley Williams well..

[Ebadlun]

3. On the plus side..

even if the Tories win, they're a long, long way from being as unremittingly venal and obnoxious as your Republicans! On the other hand, we don't have anyone as cool as Obama..

[JuniperLea]

5. So happy to hear another from the UK saying such things...

I keep telling myself that there are far more people out there, and what they think matters. Obama is pretty cool:)

[Ebadlun]

8. I follow US politics cos it's just so much more interesting

So much more at stake.

Here, the range of political difference is pretty narrow - the NHS and BBC are inviolable, nobody would seriously question the concept of the welfare state. Obviously that's good, but it does rather take the excitement out of politics.

[JuniperLea]

13. We're like nasty teenagers...

A very young country by comparison to any in Europe. I doubt we'll be civilized anytime soon.

I grew up with a staunch Republican father, and a tree-hugging liberal mother... life as a child was interesting:) I tried to avoid politics for a long time... there's just no ignoring it now!

:toast:

[David in Canada]

14. Very True...

The United States is so far-right as a nation that Obama would be a staunch Tory in Britain. If you compare his policies to Thatcher's, for instance, you would see that on health and certain economic matters, Obama would be too right-wing to be elected in Britain, much less continental Europe.

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. New Poll Puts Labour Third Behind Lib Dems

This is a regular poll, that has been taken most days in the past few weeks. It's across all potential voters, not just those who watched the debate.

A new YouGov poll for The Sun has put Labour in third place - behind the Liberal Democrats - for the first time in the General Election campaign.
...
The poll puts the Conservatives in the lead on 33% (down four), the Liberal Democrats on 30% (up eight) and Labour on 28 (down three).

Professor Michael Thrasher has translated the figures into what the House of Commons may look like based on this poll.

The Conservatives would have 244 seats (up 34), Lib Dems would have 103 (up 41), Labour would have 271 (down 78) and the remaining 32 seats would be taken by other parties.

Labour would still be the largest party with 271 seats despite being third in the popular vote, because of the distribution of votes in 2005 and the application of uniform swing, he told Sky News.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Sun-YouGov-Poll-Puts-Labour-In-Third-Place-Lib-Dems-Up-Eight-To-Second-After-First-Leaders-Debate/Article/201004315606044?lpos=Politics_First_UK_News_Article_Teaser_Region_2&lid=ARTICLE_15606044_Sun_YouGov_Poll_Puts_Labour_In_Third_Place%2C_Lib_Dems_Up_Eight_To_Second_After_First_Leaders_Debate

That is a huge swing. Way more than I expected. The 'uniform swing' projection should be taken with a large pinch of salt - at that amount, the assumptions in it don't really hold. It shows how silly a First Past the Post system can be - the party coming third could, in one model, get the most seats.

http://www.today.yougov.co.uk.nyud.net:8080/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/DailyPolling-160410.jpg

How much difference did the leaders' debate make to how you will cast your vote at the general election?

No difference - I will vote in the same way as I would have before the debate: 46%

Not much difference - It has made me think again, but I will likely vote in the same way: 22%

TOTAL NOT MUCH/ NONE: 68%

A little difference - I am reconsidering how I will vote having seen the leader's debate: 19%

A lot - I have changed how I would vote in the light of the leader's debate: 5%

TOTAL A LITTLE/ A LOT: 24%

Don't know: 9%

http://www.today.yougov.co.uk/politics/latest-voting-intention-16-april

I don't think the swing will last, at that level; but it's so big that it may indicate a significant number will stay with the Lib Dems in the end.

[Ebadlun]

7. That is interesting

I hadn't seen that one - it's going to impossible to call this election.

The liberals have been slowly increasing their seats since being almost wiped out around WWII, so a breakthrough can't be ruled out.

[Hippo_Tron]

10. The history of the Liberal Democrats is pretty interesting

The Labour Party emerged as a more left wing alternative to the Liberal Democrats were a centrist party. They haven't governed since Labour emerged as a serious force. But ever since Blair, and especially since his support of the Iraq War, the Liberal Democrats have emerged as the left wing alternative to Labour.

[Ebadlun]

12. They have a tendency to collect protest votes

A lot of disaffected Tories voted for them in the dog days of the Major government, people who were diametrically opposed to what they actually stood for.

[xchrom]

11. Recommend

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

15. Clegg is a breath of fresh air, but I still question their ability to govern.

Since they have, like, no experience at it. At all. I mean zero. (Well, unless you count the Cambridge city council.) The primary benefit I see is that they're siphoning off votes that otherwise would have gone to the Tories, and that's always a good thing.

[madfloridian]

16. Howard Dean: Clegg can win UK election

From the BBC

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8597521.stm

"Mr Dean praised Mr Clegg as a "young, dynamic leader".

And he said he could be the big winner from Britain's first televised election debates, capitalising on disillusion with the two larger parties.

..."Speaking on the Washington Journal, simulcast on US network C-Span and BBC Parliament, he said: "I don't think there'll ever be a coalition between the Liberals and the Labour government.

"I know the Liberals, I know Nick Clegg very well, and he intends to win this and I think they could.

"So you may have a hung Parliament but I think you won't have a coalition. At least not that coalition going forward."

Asked if Mr Clegg could be the next British prime minister, Mr Dean said: "I think he could".

'Dynamic'

Mr Dean, who was chairman of the Democratic National Committee from 2005 to 2009, has close links with the Lib Dems and has spoken at their party conference in the past."

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

17. I'm sorry, but what the FUCK?

The Lib Dems aren't taking a majority in Parliament. Not going to happen.

[T_i_B]

20. Yep. Lots of wishful thinking out there....

...based on quite frankly unrealistic polls.

[laughingliberal]

18. +1 nt

[LeftishBrit]

19. Clegg won't be PM

Our first-past-the-post electoral system will prevent this. However, if the LibDems do well, we could have a hung parliament, and they could be very influential in determining who is PM. A minority government could depend on them.

[Blue_Tires]

21. ttt