Is a coup in Iraq about to happen?

[ck4829]

It's funny, while mortars and rockets are falling in Baghdad, the Parliament is planning to take a 2 month long vacation.

At the same time, the Bush Administration is putting more and more troops in Baghdad too.

They could just walk into Parliament and install Chalabi as the new Prime Minister.

[rox63]

1. If a coup did happen, would the MSM even tell us about it? n/t

[MUAD_DIB]

7. I don't think that you would be able to hide something like that

for very long. It would be covered, and AWOL would give us some excuse about Malaki and terererrerrrr and freedom and insurgency in its last throes...yadayadayada...

[bryant69]

2. I think Calabi is pretty well discredited at this point

But it is possible they would put someone else in charge.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[Dhalgren]

4. Whoever the US picked to install as dictator, he would need an Iraqi

militia at his disposal. Just being backed by the US would get him killed before the name-plates were changed. The new US-backed strongman will need a formidable indigenous guard ready to rumble from the get-go. The only Iraqis who have these are Iraqis that are unacceptable to the US (at least right now).

[cosmik debris]

3. There is an eerie similarity with Ngo Dinh Diem

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ngo_Dinh_Diem

Vietnam's democratically elected President overthrown in a CIA sponsored coup. I've been expecting this for months now.

[dave_p]

5. Hardly democratic

Diem's elections were scarcely democratic: it was a case of replacing one currupt despot with others. Diem was a liability and US support was the only think maintaining his regime: in such circumstances the US was entitled to get rid of him. Neither should have been there in the first place. There's certainly a parallel available if US policymakers want to go down that route.

[cosmik debris]

8. Oops, my bad

I mis-remembered. Sorry.

[dave_p]

6. Wanted: an army

Having proclaimed its puppet Iraq "sovereign" the US can't really displace the present government using its own forces: it would need a functioning Iraqi army. Unfortunately Bremer abolished that in May 2003, so they're stuck with a Keystone Kops substitute with a decent record of fighting rabbits.

A strong regime wouldn't be welcome in Washington either: the present fragmented, rudderless regime of rival sectarian ministries offers far better opportunities for converting slaughter to business opportunities for GOP-friendly monopolies.

With an effective local army off the table, I'd expect the present chaos to continue. It suits the militias and most importantly it suits the corporations whio don't want to have to account to a central authority.

[leftchick]

9. it won't be Chalabi

it will be the CIA's Allawi.