Washington considers a decline of world oil production as of 2011

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http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2010/03/25/washington-considers-a-decline-of-world-oil-production-as-of-2011/

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The DoE dismisses the “peak oil” theory, which assumes that world crude oil production should irreversibly decrease in a nearby future, in want of suffisant fresh oil reserves yet to be exploited. The Obama administration of Energy supports the alternative hypothesis of an “undulating plateau”. Lauren Mayne, responsible for liquid fuel prospects at the DoE, explains : “Once maximum world oil production is reached, that level will be approximately maintained for several years thereafter, creating an undulating plateau. After this plateau period, production will experience a decline.”

Glen Sweetnam, who heads the publication of DoEs annual International Energy Outlook, agrees that what he identifies as a possible decline of liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 could be the first stage of the “undulating plateau” pattern, which will start “once maximum world oil production is reached”.

M. Auzanneau - After 2011 and until 2015, do you acknowledge that if adequate investment is not there, a chance exists that we may experience a first stage of decline in the “undulating plateau” you describe ?

GLEN SWEETNAM - I agree, if the investment is not there, a chance exists that we may experience a decline. If we do, I would expect investment in new capacity to increase if there is still demand for oil.

Glen Sweetnam acknowledges the possibility of a close-by and unexpected fall of world liquid fuels production in an email interview, after several requests of details about a round-table of oil economists that Mr Sweetnam held on April 7, 2009 in Washington, DC.


The DoE April 2009 round-table, untitled “Meeting the Growing Demand for Liquid (fuels)“, was semi-public. Yet it remained unnoticed and unjustly, as it put forward forecasts that are far more pessimistic than any analysis the DoE has ever delivered.

Page 8 of the presentation document of the round-table, a graph shows that the DoE is expecting a decline of the total of all known sources of liquid fuels supplies after 2011.

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http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2010/03/25/washington-considers-a-decline-of-world-oil-production-as-of-2011/


I like how everyon dismisses the Peak Oil "theory" despite this "theory" having been proven in EVERY SINGE DEPLETED OIL WELL IN HISTORY, as well as the fact that it is a well-known phenomenon inside the oil industry.

So, the Obama administration subscribes to the alternative that once maximum world oil production is reached there will be a few years of an "undulating plateau", huh? Well, folks, the "undulating plateau" is a long-known aspect of the Peak Oil "theory" which is ALREADY SEVERAL YEARS ALONG!



And guess what? The INVESTMENT that Sweetnam talks about? THE FUNDS FOR THAT INVESTMENT IS GOING TO MANIFEST ITSELF AT THE PUMP AND THE MONEY FOR INVESTMENT IS GOING TO COME FROM YOU AND ME IN THE FORM OF ECONOMY-WRECKING HIGH FUEL PRICES! On the other hand, if that graph above begins to decline appreciably, IT WILL BE A TERMINAL DECLINE NO MATTER HOW MUCH MONEY IS THROWN AT IT!

More from the article...


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The DoE predicts that the decline of identified sources of supply will be steady and sharp : - 2 percent a year, from 87 million barrels per day (Mbpd) in 2011 to just 80 Mbpd in 2015. At that time, the world demand for oil and other liquid fuels should have climbed up to 90 Mbpd, according to the presentation document.

“Unidentified” additional liquid fuels projects would therefore have to fill in a 10 Mbpd gap between supplies and demand within less than 5 years. 10 Mbpd is almost the equivalent of the oil production of Saudi Arabia, world top producer with 10.8 Mbpd.



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World oil production DISCOVERIES PEAKED IN 1964! How in the HELL will anyone find the equivalent of all the oil Saudi Arabia has ever produced in the next 5 years? NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!



I tried to bring attention to this issue a few days ago with a http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=8022492">detailed post and received NOT A SINGLE RESPONSE. This is an issue that will affect ALL OF OUR LIVES and our way of life. The implications of an oil-starved world are horrendous. Yet, no one here cares to even acknowledge it except those like me who are watching the situation. Continue to ignore it at your own peril.

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1. Kick. n/t

[LeftinOH]

2. Oil shale; offshore drilling; open wildlife reserves to drilling; drill baby drill!!!

-that is the official Republican response. Meanwhile, I'd like to see more aggressive alternate-energy promotion AND public transit support from this admistration.

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3. You can't pump sunshine and wind into an 80,000 lb. grocery truck

moving food from California to Texas. And you can't grow enough corn to do it either. We've already seen what happens when ethanol production ramps up. People die from starvation when you do that.

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4. KICK! n/t

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5. Un-recced without comment. Nice rebuttal. n/t

[PufPuf23]

6. The facts that the world needs to get serious about energy (k&r)

use, efficiency, and sources is an understatement.

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7. LaHood: ‘This Is the End of Favoring Motorized Transportation’

http://washingtonindependent.com/79284/lahood-this-is-the-end-of-favoring-motorized-transportation

A sudden interest in Washington for favoring NON-MOTORIZED transportation?

Gee...I wonder why that is.

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8. If a Ghawar-sized field were discovered tomorrow, it would contain enough oil to power

the world for how many years?

Ghawar is the largest oil field ever discovered and contained an estimated 170 billion barrels of oil when discovered, not all of which will be recoverable. But, for the sake of argument, let's just say that it will all be recoverable.

If we started using it tomorrow (instead of the 7-8 years it would normally take to bring such a new discovery on line), it would last the world...wait for it...5 years! And that doesn't account for any increase in demand.

Don't believe it? Go research it for yourself.

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9. Kick. n/t

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10. Oil 82.41 +2.41 +3.01%

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11. Falklands oil search disappoints

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/business/8592734.stm

Shares in Desire Petroleum have almost halved after the oil explorer said a well being drilled off the Falkland Islands may not be economically viable.

Shares in other companies operating off the Falklands also fell amid fears that the region's reserves may disappoint.

The well is the first to be drilled off the islands for a decade, sparking a diplomatic row with Argentina which has renewed its claim to the Falklands.

Shares in Desire ended Monday trading in London down 49.5%.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/business/8592734.stm


Yeahhhh....you're not going to get investment dollars like that...

Anyone ever wonder why exploration companies are wanting to go into place like ANWR and deep water? Anyone ever wonder how we're going to mitigate climate change without reducing our dependence on oil? Any ever wonder why we need to transition to a green economy?

DOES ANYONE GIVE A FUCK ABOUT THIS ISSUE?

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12. '...how is it that readers in France now know more about U.S. Department of Energy

oil supply forecasts than Americans do?"