Earthquakes due to global warming

[guardian]

First early maple syrup in Maine, now earthquakes in Chile. The gods are just, and of our pleasant vices Make instruments to plague us.



http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20327273.800-climate-change-may-trigger-earthquakes-and-volcanoes.html?full=true

the conclusion of the researchers who got together at the conference on Climate Forcing of Geological and Geomorphological Hazards. It suggests climate change could tip the planet's delicate balance and unleash a host of geological disasters. What's more, even our attempts to stall global warming could trigger a catastrophic event (see "Bury the carbon").

Evidence of a link between climate and the rumblings of the crust has been around for years, but only now is it becoming clear just how sensitive rock can be to the air, ice and water above. "You don't need huge changes to trigger responses from the crust," says Bill McGuire of University College London (UCL), who organised the meeting. "The changes can be tiny."

[cherokeeprogressive]

1. "how sensitive rock can be to the air, ice, and water above."

The fault broke 21.7 miles below the surface.

[BrklynLiberal]

2. You mean to say it is NOT the sinful lifestyle of those living nearby????????

duh!!

:crazy: :silly:

[Lorien]

3. Didn't a DUer theorize the same earlier today? nt

[ohheckyeah]

4. Yes, and got jumped on for it. n/t

[leeroysphitz]

7. and rightly so... n/t

[Junkdrawer]

14. Why? n/t

[Igel]

27. I'll venture a guess.

This article says that climate matters around the margins. You get 10s of cms of ocean water, you can help trigger a quake that's due to build-up of stresses in the rock. You get a rainfall, you can see how it can trigger having a volcanic dome shift now, as opposed to next week. You get winter, you get a slightly higher incidence of volcanic activity, and you can posit some possible causal mechanism.

In some cases the stats look reasonable and the causal mechanism seems reasonable. Then again, those instances are *really* at the margins.

Now, this is different from saying that a 1.2 degree C global change over the last 30 years (or whatever the numbers are--they're more than an order of magnitude smaller than the temperature difference between winter and summer in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere)--was the cause of the 8.8 quake in Chile. Yesterday there were those trying to blame that one--along an established thrust/slip fault known for producing some massive quakes and nearly any other quake--on AGW.

The problems are legion. Some are abstract--trying to deduce from a general rule "Climate can serve as the trigger to some kinds of quakes" that a specific quake is due to such a trigger. Even if the causal mechanism is there, it's still statistical, not deterministic. Moreover, no cause was needed: "AGW --> massive quake," and the "-->" amounts to a wave of Harry Potter's wand with the incantation being the name of this conference.

If you're into this not as a science-reporting article but an article of faith then there's no problem. But the two takes on this article shouldn't be confused. Now, sometimes things taken on faith turn out to be true. For example, it's true that an extreme example such as "the sky is made of marmelade, my sweat pants are grey, therefore most cats have four legs" is a true syllogism (since it yields a true conclusion), often all we have to base our evaluation of an argument's conclusion on is the syllogism itself. For now, the claim that AGW is related to the Chilean quake has to be judged false.

[Junkdrawer]

28. You could never associate AGW with a particular quake...However...

If changes in ocean levels trigger quakes and a 20% effect is seen when the northern hemisphere is in winter and therefore traps more water as snow, THIS winter and its excessive snow totals (attributed by many to AGW) should see more quakes than usual.

[Maru Kitteh]

9. Yeah, I wonder why?

Oh that's right - because it's crap.

[ohheckyeah]

29. And there are nice ways of telling someone they are wrong about

something.

[EFerrari]

11. It's easier to snark than to study. Go figure.

[Maru Kitteh]

32. Yeah. I'm going to study some astrology, phrenology and alchemy next.

After that, I'm going to research the effects of maleficent sprites on tectonic plates.

[EFerrari]

33. See? That was easy, wasn't it.

[theophilus]

30. It could have been me. I was just wondering. Anyway, I started

a thread and had to leave...yesterday. When I got back there were about 162 replies and it was locked. Many of the comments were interesting and useful. Many were so snarkified that I didn't want to credit them with much value. Anyway, many wonder and science will answer the question. Edison said that AC current was useless, for the most part, too. Time changes things. I WAS just wondering. Good day.

[Kablooie]

5. underground temperatures remain constant in just a few feet.

Bogus science supporting global warming will only hurt the real science.

[XemaSab]

10. There's a rule of thumb:

If you dig a foot down, take the soil temperature, and add a degree, you can generally figure out what the mean annual air temperature is.

Soil is THAT GOOD of a buffer.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

6. Uh, the evidence for this is actually pretty poor.

It's based on what I would consider to be a flawed analysis of earthquake activity over an extremely short period (geologically speaking) on one isolated, extremely thin microplate as it relates to el Nino. No other studies have ever supported these conclusions. Even if this stuff *is* true, all it does is move the exact date of the earthquake around a bit. The accumulated stress in the crust is still there, regardless of sea level changes. Man, sometimes New Scientist really pisses me off.

[Cirque du So-What]

8. Did any of you who are so quick to condemn actually READ the article?

The researchers focused on the Easter microplate - the tectonic plate that lies beneath the ocean off the coast of Easter Island - because it is relatively isolated from other faults. This makes it easier to distinguish changes in the plate caused by climate systems from those triggered by regional rumbles. Since 1973, the arrival of El Niño every few years has correlated with a greater frequency of underwater quakes between magnitude 4 and 6.

The team is confident that the two are linked. El Niño raises the local sea level by a few tens of centimetres, and they believe the extra water weight may increase the pressure of fluids in the pores of the rock beneath the seabed. This might be enough to counteract the frictional force that holds the slabs of rock in place, making it easier for faults to slip. "The changes in sea level are tiny," says Day. "A small additional perturbation can have a substantial effect."

Who among you have the education and background that permits putting up a coherent argument against these researchers?

<crickets>

That's what I thought!

[Junkdrawer]

25. I noticed that the small group that jumped on yesterday's locked thread...

are avoiding this one. Although their unrec presence is clearly here.

[sylveste]

12. huh?

if this isn't meant in jest, then it's the stupidest fucking thing i've read today. hard to tell sometimes.

[dems_rightnow]

13. I've definitely noticed a correlation

Between major earthquakes, and US Olympic bobsled gold.

[malaise]

15. I don't have a clue but we have enough evidence of

climate change affecting weather patterns across the globe. The Caribbean is experiencing severe drought and Europe is experiencing severe flooding and snow storms.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8540762.stm
Deadly storm lashes Spain, Portugal and France
At least nine people have been killed in storms that have lashed parts of Spain, Portugal and France.

Winds of up to 140km/h (87mph) caused chaos as they moved from Portugal up through the Bay of Biscay.

Five people are reported to have been killed in France, three in Spain and a 10-year-old boy in Portugal.

The storm is expected to track north-eastwards during the course of Sunday, reaching Denmark by the evening, French meteorological authorities said.

Falling trees

The storm, which has been called Xynthia, has put five of the 95 French departments on red alert - only the second such warning since the new emergency system was introduced in 2001.

Hundreds of thousands of homes in west and south-west France have lost electricity while a number of French coastal villages were flooded.

[Junkdrawer]

16. This will be attacked mercilessly. Why? Because there's a well funded....

effort to attack climate change science underway and the last thing they need is another cost associated with climate change.

[Bill McBlueState]

21. on the thread I read about this yesterday,

everyone who was attacking this idea of global-warming-induced earthquakes also supports the scientific consensus on climate change.

[Junkdrawer]

22. I didn't say here necessarily. n/t.

[hedgehog]

17. Thermal expansion? Seriously, it can be very powerful. To get an idea,

check out the expansion strips next time you cross a bridge.

[Junkdrawer]

18. Secondary forces and earthquakes...

To get an idea why tiny changes could lead to an earthquake, consider this:

Try to move a big book by blowing on it. Impossible.

Now, put the book on a board and raise one end until the book just starts to move. Now, you just might move the book by blowing on it.

Well, the book on the board is a lot like an overdue stress in an earthquake zone. Forces that would normally be secondary might just be enough to trigger a quake. Now, that quake would have happened sometime anyway, but a small change could well precipitate a rash of overdue quakes.

[muriel_volestrangler]

19. Though if it's a question of 'overdue' quakes, then it may not be a long term difference

The article points to an apparent seasonal effect, and one associated with El Nino, both of which they say increase sea levels by tens of centimetres. But since those are events that come and go, it would seem that it makes it more likely during those periods, and less likely outside them, because, as you say, it's stress building up in the rocks. When the quake happens, the stress is relieved, and so a further quake is less likely in following seasons/years. Global warming may make the quakes happen a bit earlier than they otherwise would, but the total number over a long period may not be affected.

[Junkdrawer]

20. I guess it depends on how many (if any) are triggered how quickly....

Too many at once could overwhelm our ability to render assistance.

[Edweird]

23. Climate change and geology are connected, but you have it exactly backwards.

[undeterred]

24. So far our attempts to stall global warming have been tiny. nt

[Junkdrawer]

26. Kick

:kick:

[TransitJohn]

31. Global climate change will affect geochemical and geomorphological surficial processes

but not any geologic or geophysical processes.

[Jkid]

34. Oh great...first more heat equals more moisture sucked out of the water.

Now this...damn.