US Navy says they're only expecting a 2 foot surge

[malaise]

in Hawaii. They're evacuating some places but not sending ships to sea.

[Fla Dem]

1. Famous last words....hope they're right. n/t

[malaise]

2. True since the Weather Channel has detected a tsunami

2900 nautical miles from Hilo heading for Hawaii.

[ThomWV]

3. If there is any group on the face of the earth that understands wave behavior its is the US Navy

No ship will be put in peril. You can bet anything on the face of the earth you like that within moments of that quake there were super computers modeling the waves that would result with no other purpose on the face of this earth than to give warning to our Navy. You can also bet that no expense what so ever was spared in doing the modeling or on the equipment which performs the calculations, nor on the communications system that relayed the results to the commands of that same Navy.

Really, they don't play games with this sort of shit.

[malaise]

26. Well they were very close

They said two feet and it was three feet - Bravo Navy!!!

[backscatter712]

5. Hope so too.

I heard earlier reports that the tsunami was fizzling - hope they're true.

[Selatius]

4. If the quake were in deeper waters and not near the coast, the tsunami would be monstrous.

The tsunami that killed 250,000 people in 2004 across South Asia occurred in deep water, I believe.

[GreenStormCloud]

7. It was also much closer to the shore that it hit.

As the wave travels from Chile to Hawaii, it is also spreading out in other directions, so the wave weakens. Some of it goes south, some south-west, some west, etc. across 180 degrees.

[kevinbgoode]

6. Here are some links to Hawaii news reports of the warning and size:

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/

http://www.co.hawaii.hi.us/cd/tsunami/maps.htm

Looks like 2.5 feet predicted on the Big Island and about 39 inches expected on Oahu. . .

Interesting news reports. . .

[kagi]

8. Protected harbors and exposed locations...

Most of the Navy's ships are in protected harbors that wouldn't see much of a surge from the tsunami, but places like Hilo which aren't typically a harborage for Navy ships are likely to feel a lot more impact. So if I was in the danger area, I'd take less note as to what the Navy's doing, and more note how closely the shoreline faces the expected wave direction and the local coastal conditions that might magnify the surge of waves.

I'm hopeful that there'll be no damage, and a whole lot of people grumpy that they had sirens and hassles of moving out of the way. Property can be fixed if it does turn out to be damaging waves. The entire exercise is worth it, and really is the first big test of the systems put in after the big Indian Ocean tsunami.

[maddezmom]

9. CNNI just reported they they are sending them out now

and the ones in San Diego.

[TexasObserver]

23. Getting the Navy ships out to sea makes sense.

If the vessels are at sea, the impact of a tsunami is minimal. Navy vessels are at risk in the harbor, because that's where tsunami wave action meets a thin shelf.

Out at sea, the tsunami is largely unseen, under the surface. As the wave reaches the continental shelf, it has nowhere to go but up, and that's what makes it bad for the shoreline. Ships and boats well out of the harbor should be fairly safe. I would think that the further they get from port, the more likely they are to avoid damage. The last thing the Navy needs is ships tethered in the harbor during suddenly rising tides.

[Edweird]

10. I may be wrong, but I seem to recall their intensity forecasts being essentially useless.

It basically boils down to "there is one coming, so get out of the way - just in case". Not that there's anything wrong with that. I wouldn't bet my life or livelihood on a 2 foot surge prediction, though.

[SpiralHawk]

11. NB - We are CLOSE to the Full Moon

Waters run high.

[Codeine]

19. *sigh* nt

[davsand]

21. In case anyone doubts the Moon's impact on tide levels

http://www.sciencebuddies.org/mentoring/project_ideas/Astro_p009.shtml

[Codeine]

22. Tides are not tsunamis. nt

[SpiralHawk]

25. Ain't nobody saying they are

But if the waters are running high already, as are people's emotions, then it could be some sort of factor.

I doubt sincerely that it's no factor at all.

[davsand]

12. As I recall the US Navy in Hawaii has not always been terribly prescient.

They may never live down that whole Pearl Harbor thing--ya know?

Sorry to sound so flip about it, but it seems to me that maybe it is better to error on the side of caution in cases like this. They put people at risk when they downplay or deadpan this kind of thing. There are families of service people who live and die by this kind of decision making right along with the service men and women.

I was glad to hear that the Navy had, in fact, sent some of the ships out to sea to ride this out. At least THOSE families realize this is potentially serious.



Laura

[old mark]

13. They expected sabotage on the ground in 1941, too. Parked all the aircraft

in nice, straight lines, close together, so they could be guarded easily. Made fine targets for an attack from the air, as did all the battleships and cruisers tied up alongside the harbor docks.

They don't deserve to live it down lest they repeat it.

mark

[cherokeeprogressive]

14. When you say "They don't deserve to live it down" please understand that the workaday Sailor had no

say in where aircraft were parked nor did they make the decision to "nest" the battleships. They stood tall and fought though, even though they faced seemingly insurmountable odds.

2386 Americans died, and for all that, nearly HALF died because of a lucky hit on the USS Arizona. I'd say they acquitted themselves quite admirably that day. Quite admirably indeed.

The US Navy played THE major role in winning the war in the Pacific, just a few short years after nearly being destroyed at Pearl Harbor.

What they DO deserve is the neverending respect they EARNED.

[harkadog]

17. Always the armchair admiral on the internet

With that great 20-20 hindsight.

[KittyWampus]

15. A two foot surge here would inundate certain areas. Not submerge them, but it'd

cover over some areas and cause salt water to get pushed into fresh.

[spanone]

16. they are sending out the ships now....per m$nbc..david shuster reporting

[malaise]

18. I was just going to post that

CNN has given us a fair amount of misinformation today. Good to hear and clearly they're expecting waves bigger than two feet

[upi402]

20. Wave height varies, sending ships out now

Just heard on CNN so it could be utter bullshit

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. According to CNN they are scrambling