HCR Reconcilation - The votes are (still) not there.

[Suji to Seoul]

Let's look at the 11 who have stated to use Reconciliation. Let's assume we have those:

Feinstein, Kerry, Sanders, Brown, Whitehouse, Bennett, Burris, Gillibrand, Merkeley, Franken, Leahy.

The following are definite "yes" votes: (48 total yes votes)
Reed - RI
Byrd - WV
Schumer - NY
Boxer - CA
Udall - CO
Udall - NM
Rockefeller - WV
Specter - PA
Casey - PA
Kohl - WI
Feingold - WI
Wyden - OR
Inouye - HI
Akaka - HI
Mikulski - MD
Cardin - MD
Levin - MI
Stabenow - MI
Tester - MT
Shaheen - NH
Harkin - IA
Lautenberg - NJ
Menendez - NJ
Webb - VA
Warner - VA
Dodd - CT
Murray - WA
Cantwell - WA
Carper - DE
Kaufman - DE
McCaskill - MO
Klobuchar - MN
Bingamen - NM
Dorgan - ND
Reid - NV (if the votes are there)
Durbin - IL (if the votes are there)

The following are definite "maybe" votes: (4) votes
Begich - AK (being a DEM in AK has advantages. He may be one term and we can use that for our advantage.)
Conrad - ND (Since I have not heard a peep from him, he's in the maybe section. Someone help me out.)
Hagan - NC (Since I have not heard a peep from her, she's in the maybe section. Someone help me out.)
Johnson - SD (Since I have not heard a peep from him, he's in the maybe section. Someone help me out. Conserva-Dem.)

The following are the "no" votes, the Blue Dog, DINO-moles in the Senate: (7 votes)
Baucus - MT (expect revenge for Reid's "spine" on the jobs bill. Too much of an asshole.)
Bayh - IN (expect a pure traitor from him no. I expect him to jump ship completely. Too conserva-Dem)
Landrieu - LA (No unless she gets a big "bribe" for LA. Too pathetic.)
Lieberman - CT (No completely. Too worthless.)
Bill Nelson - FL (no completely. Too spineless.)
Ben Nelson - NE (no completely. Too selfish.)
Pryor - AR (No chance for his vote. Too brain dead.)
Lincoln - AR (No chance for her vote. Too stupid.)

We do not have it. Expect 41 no votes.

Right now, it's 48 yes, 4 maybe and 7 no.

edited to add Bingamen, Dorgan, Durbin and Reid as "yes" votes.

[sandnsea]

1. Reconciliation only needs 50 votes n/t

[Suji to Seoul]

2. We have 43 definite "yes." Find me seven more please!

[sandnsea]

15. I see some possibilities

Pryor, Begich, Johnson, even Conrad, Baucus and Bill Nelson might be moved. If we would have gotten our asses out in the streets today, maybe the politicians and media would think we're serious.

[quiet.american]

3. Did you forget to add the "43" yes to the 11 signatories? Took another look- see your math now.

I see you added 32 "yes" to the "11" to get 43.

[Suji to Seoul]

7. Yes. 32 yes plus 11 signatories = 43 votes.

[Jennicut]

8. There is only 32 yes votes plus the 11 that would sign on already.

That makes 43 plus we need 7 more.

[quiet.american]

9. Yes, thanks all - I had taken another look and "figured it out." :) nt

[Jennicut]

4. Bingamen was the original gang of 6 but actually came out for using reconcilation a long time ago.

It was talked about here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/25/first-gang-of-six-member_n_268518.html
Reid and Durbin would go for it if the votes are there. That leaves Begich, Conrad, and Hagan. Not too sure about them. Dorgan might be okay, he was always pretty liberal.

[Skink]

5. Reconciliation would mean it is time for the dems to vote in lockstep.

they've been begging Obama to lead so now is the time for them to follow orders.

[bluestateguy]

6. Bingaman has said he would do it in the past

Reid is the "leader" so he has to be deliberately vague to keep the other side guessing; when push comes to shove, he would be a yes. Same with Durbin.

Dorgan need not worry about reelection and has not been the PITA that the other Blue Dogs have been. I'd put him down as a yes.

Johnson, Begich and Hagen don't have to worry about reelection until '14, so I would be optimistic about them.

[upi402]

10. Reid needs to act like MAJORITY *LEADER*

His office said he'd go for it if the majority supported it. FUUUUUCK!!!!!! Twist some arms ya pantywaste!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! argh:argh: :grr: :nuke:

[Leopolds Ghost]

11. Why do you people support mandated private HC with a privately run "option" for 5% of uninsured?

I thought so. All just an act...

[pnwmom]

17. More and more people would choose the public option as time went on.

That's exactly why the Republicans are opposed to it.

And you are wrong about it only covering 5% of the uninsured. That's nonsense. And please don't cite again any article from 2005.

[gateley]

12. I'd move Begich and Dorgan into the yes column. Not based on anything, just my

guess. Maybe even Durbin.

Are your yes votes definite, or just guesses, like mine? If they're 'official' -- it's really encouraging. This started with just what - eight?

If this gets more momentum, I bet there will be some arm twisting from on high, so we may just get the votes we need, even from a Blue Dog or two.

This is exciting!l

PS -- Hagan from NC is a she -- Kay Hagan. She bumped Elizabeth Dole out of office.

[Suji to Seoul]

13. You know. I live in China. I am beginning to think Chinese and type English

"ta" is he and she. Sometimes, I make the mistake my students make. I've lived here 18 months now.

I'm basing it on voting record and the State they represent. Jack Reed would be more inclined to vote for reconciliation than Mark Begich. RI is more liberal than AK.

[gateley]

14. Ha! Well even if you lived here you may not be familiar enough w/Hagan to

know she's a she. She's new and you don't hear a lot about her. I only knew because I lived in North Carolina at the time and voted for her. :hi:

[sandnsea]

16. FDL says they have 20 definites

I really think this is doable. I think it will be alot more politically palatable after Obama gives Republicans one more chance to be reasonable.