A Bubble In Search Of A Pin (info on unemployment)

[FarCenter]

This month the household survey showed the largest one-month turnaround that I could find. As The Liscio Report noted:

"Adjusting for the changes in the population controls, total household employment rose by 784,000 - and when further adjusted to match the payroll concept, employment was up 841,000. Moves of this magnitude (regardless of sign) are unusual, but not unknown - and frequently undone in subsequent months. The less volatile ratios were also up, with the participation rate up 0.1 point, and the employment/population ratio rose a nice 0.2 point, its first increase since last April. While it's too early to say whether this strength in the household survey is a harbinger of an upturn that will soon show up in payrolls, it's something to be filed under 'tentatively encouraging.'"

The work-week hours rose slightly. Income growth was better than it has been. Temporary workers rose, which is typically a harbinger of an increase in full-time employment. The number of people working part-time for economic reasons plummeted by 849,000.

And finally, the unemployment rate fell 0.3% to 9.7%. This of course means that more people are dropping out of the labor pool, and it also means they will at some point come back.

On the negative side, a loss of 22,000 jobs is nowhere close to the 100,000 new jobs that are needed just to hold unemployment steady. 41% of those unemployed have been so for over 6 months.

And quoting David Rosenberg:

"While there will be many economists touting today's report as some inflection point, and it could well be argued that we are entering some sort of healing phase in the jobs market just by mere virtue of inertia, the reality is that the level of employment today, at 129.5 million, is the exact same level it was in 1999. And, during this 11-year span of Japanese-like labour market stagnation, the working-age population has risen 29 million. Contemplate that for a moment; fully 29 million people competing for the same number of jobs that existed more than a decade ago. That sounds like pretty deflationary stuff from our standpoint.

"Not only that, but consideration must be taken that in 2009, we had a zero policy rate, a $2.2 trillion Fed balance sheet and an epic 10% deficit-to-GDP ratio. You could not have asked for more government stimulus. Yet employment tumbled nearly 5 million in 2009."

Finally, a very sad chart, courtesy of David. Those in the 25-54 year-old male category have seen their total number of jobs fall back to the level it was in 1996. Fourteen years later, and the "breadwinners" who are supposedly in their prime have seen an almost 10% drop in employment.

<SNIP>http://www.businessinsider.com/a-bubble-in-search-of-a-pin-2010-2-2

[dkf]

People seem to be working later in life too.

That just expands the numbers who need jobs

[dkf]

1. People seem to be working later in life too.

That just expands the numbers who need jobs

[DesertFlower]

2. i see a lot of seniors working in

grocery stores, etc. i don't think they're doing it because they're bored. they need the money.