National House Ballot, February 1st: Republicans take their first lead

[Karmadillo]

http://www.openleft.com/diary/17203/national-house-ballot-february-1st-republicans-take-their-first-lead

National House Ballot, February 1st: Republicans take their first lead
by: Chris Bowers
Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 11:47

February 1st: Republicans +1.2%
Last update: Jan 29: Democrats +0.3%

Commentary: For the first time since I began monitoring the national House ballot since October, Democrats have fallen behind. Further, they have no clar <sic> path back into the lead, as five separate polling organizations now show them facing a deficit. This includes two of the three polling outfits with weekly poll updates, Daily Kos and Rasmussen.

It would be very difficult for Democrats to maintain control of the House of Representatives when facing a deficit like this. The median error for this methodology is 1.77%. As such, given current polling, the odds of a Democratic victory in the popular vote (if the election were held tomorrow) would only 32%. Given that Republicans have an edge in current district composition (the 218th district has a Cook PVI of R+2), that Republicans will likely have an edge in total number of districts with a candidate, and that many of these polls are still measuring all adults rather than registered voters or likely voters, if anything the Republican advantage of 1.2% is an underestimation.

Later in the month I will be introducing a House forecast that looks at individual seats. However, do not expect that more detailed, seat by seat forecast to be any more favorable to Democrats. Republicans are now in a position to retake the House. Barring any improvement in the national political environment, I expect them to do just that.

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[Faryn Balyncd]

1. There is 1 issue more populat than either party: "a public plan like Medicare" available to all:

....which 72% favor.


(Even 82% of the 2008 Obama voters who jumped ship & voted for Brown.)


As long as the Democratic Party is the party trying to pass as "reform" a wildly un-popular No-Public-Option MANDATE that only 34% of voters think is "better than passing nothing", rather than Medicare-for-All (which voters understand & support) the Democratic Party will keep sinking in the polls.


Mandatory insurance without a public plan will DESTROY the Democratic Party.







"If Barack Obama’s bill gets changed to exclude the public entities, it is not health insurance reform . . . it rises and falls on whether the public is allowed to choose Medicare if they’re under 65 or not. If they are allowed to choose Medicare as an option, this bill will be real health care reform...."

- Howard Dean