US Representative levels expected to change with 2010 Census

[liberal N proud]

With 2010 Census, states expected to gain/lose seats in Electoral College and US House

Eight states are expected to lose one seat each, in the U.S. House and in the Electoral College. They are Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

States that will gain will be Texas (3 seats), and one each for Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Utah.

http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2009/04/with-2010-census-states-expected-to-gainlose-seats-in-electoral-college-and-us-house/

[derby378]

1. Let's hope that the Texas legislature turns Democratic in November

Time for the state to redistrict. And we're still suffering from the 2003 redistricting boondoggle engineered by Tom DeLay.

[Xipe Totec]

2. What happened to Minnesota?

There is one congressional seat in Minnesota that desperately needs to go away; Michelle Bachmann's.

[provis99]

3. basically, blue states lose seats, and red states gain them.

If Texas really gains more seats, I'm hoping more than ever that Texas will secede, so we don't have to put up with their right wing cowboy crap any more.

[usregimechange]

10. delete

mis-read the op.

[cyberswede]

4. I hope Iowa loses Steve King n/t

[Romulox]

5. More power for mostly Southern, rural, Rightwing states. Yeehah! nt

[shraby]

6. Not necessarily...if the baby boomer Dems are

moving to the sunshine states as they retire, it might just make the southern states even more blue.

[Statistical]

7. The only problem is that we have majority rules system for electoral votes.

So TX gains 3 electoral votes.

Now say Democratic support goes from 35% to 42%. Well thats great and all except all the EV go to Republican side and now it is an extra 3.

Unless the Democratic "transplants" are sufficient to push a state over the 50% mark their support won't really help.

I haven't looked at them closely but most of the states are so solidly red I doubt even a 10% increase in Democratic voters would move them into the Blue column.

[TxRider]

8. Umm

Texas is one seat away from a dem majority in state legislature.

And could easily get a dem governor this time as well.


If people don't want southern states getting more representation they could always stop flooding into those states. Something about more jobs available here though.

[Statistical]

9. Well maybe it is a mixed bag. good at local level but bad at federal level.

I was thinking more Presidential elections.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/

McCain won TX by 55 to 44% and the Republican candidate will likely win it in 2012 & 2016 except now it is worth 37 electoral votes instead of 34.

It is unlikely that there is enough migration to offset an 11% deficit.

55% to 44%
55 to 44 so 99 units total.

EV goes from 34 to 37 = 9% increase.

If the "new comers" are 2:1 democrat thats 6 to 3

55+3 = 58
44+6= 50

58/108 50/108 that's 53% to 46%. TX still goes Republican and now it is worth 37EV vs 34 before.

That is based on the unlikely scenario that:
a) all future Democratic candidates will be as popular as Obama
b) "newcomers" to TX are 2:1 split

[blue_onyx]

11. I'm disappointed to see my state...

and other Democratic states lose electoral votes. Population trends change so maybe things will shift in our favor again someday.