Copenhagen climate summit: Five possible scenarios for our future climate

[Javaman]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/18/copenhagen-five-climate-scenarios

With talks in Copenhagen descending into chaos, the prospects for stabilising temperatures below 'dangerous' levels look increasingly slim. Here are five possible scenarios for our future climate

1C – Vital for low-lying island states but virtually impossible
The Arctic sea ice is already disappearing and, after a 1C global average temperature rise, it would disappear for good in the summer months. Heatwaves and forest fires will become more common in the sub-tropics – worst-hit will be the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, Australia and south-west United States. Most of the world's corals will die, including the Great Barrier Reef. Glaciers that provide crops for 50m people with fresh water begin to melt and 300,000 people are affected every year by climate-related diseases such as malaria and diarrhoea.


2C – The temperature limit the scientists want
The heatwaves seen in Europe during 2003, which killed tens of thousands of people, will come back every year with a 2C global average temperature rise. Southern England will regularly see temperatures around 40C in summer. The Amazon turns into desert and grasslands, while increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere make the world's oceans too acidic for remaining coral reefs and thousands of other marine lifeforms. More than 60 million people, mainly in Africa, would be exposed to higher rates of malaria. Agricultural yields around the world will drop and half a billion people will be at greater risk of starvation. The West Antarctic ice sheet collapses, the Greenland ice sheet melts and the world's sea level begins to rise by seven metres over the next few hundred years. Glaciers all over the world will recede, reducing the fresh water supply for major cities including Los Angeles. Coastal flooding affects more than 10 million extra people. A third of the world's species will become extinct as the 2C rise changes their habitats too quickly for them to adapt.

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