2010 - US Senate Elections - Who Shall We Support?

[placton]

These are the seats which will be voted on next year, and who should we vote for/support? As a bonus, I include predictions for each race! As a result of this year, and Health Care Deform, it's gonna be a bloodbath. Deservedly so, IMO. When Lieberman switches from fake Dem to GOP, the Senate is: REPUBLICAN!! Those who disagree, please use reasoned arguments, not name calling?

DEMS RUNNING AGAIN (9 seats I predict we will lose)
Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas- LOSE TO GOP
Barbara Boxer of California - WIN
Michael Bennet of Colorado - LOSE TO GOP
Christopher Dodd of Connecticut - LOSE TO GOP
Daniel Inouye of Hawaii - WIN
Evan Bayh of Indiana - WIN
Barbara Mikulski of Maryland - LOSE TO GOP
Harry Reid of Nevada - LOSE TO GOP
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York - LOSE TO GOP
Chuck Schumer of New York - WIN
Byron Dorgan of North Dakota - LOSE TO GOP
Ron Wyden of Oregon - WIN
Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania - LOSE TO GOP
Patrick Leahy of Vermont - WIN
Patty Murray of Washington - LOSE TO GOP
Russ Feingold of Wisconsin - WIN

Retiring Democratic Senators (2 seats we lose)
Roland Burris of Illinois - LOSE TO GOP
Ted Kaufman of Delaware - LOSE TO GOP

Retiring Republican Senators
Kit Bond of Missouri - STAYS GOP
Sam Brownback of Kansas - STAYS GOP
Jim Bunning of Kentucky - STAYS GOP
Judd Gregg of New Hampshire - STAYS GOP
George LeMieux of Florida - STAYS GOP
George Voinovich of Ohio - STAYS GOP

Republican incumbents
Richard Shelby of Alabama - STAYS GOP
Lisa Murkowski of Alaska - STAYS GOP
John McCain of Arizona - STAYS GOP
Johnny Isakson of Georgia - STAYS GOP
Mike Crapo of Idaho - STAYS GOP
Chuck Grassley of Iowa - STAYS GOP
David Vitter of Louisiana - STAYS GOP
Richard Burr of North Carolina - STAYS GOP
Tom Coburn of Oklahoma - STAYS GOP
Jim DeMint of South Carolina - STAYS GOP
John Thune of South Dakota - STAYS GOP
Bob Bennett of Utah - STAYS GOP

[placton]

1. any takers?

[eleny]

2. I'm not so sure about the Burris seat going to the GOP

I don't live in Illinois. However, what I hear from friends who do is that his seat will likely go to the Dem.

[placton]

3. that was my shakiest prediction - Burris replacement

but he won't be running on Health Care (he is retiring) and is seems he is backing off his promise not to support this POS bill - which will hurt his Dem attempted replacement badly

[eleny]

12. I don't think that what Burris does will affect the election

Chicago weighs heavily in Illinois and it's Dem for the most part.

I do agree with your Colorado assertion, though. I'm supporting Romanoff. But I don't know if either Dem can win against Norton. She's leading in the current polls. The campaign hasn't really started yet. I pity the Dem who has to campaign and uphold some of the administration policies both national and local.

Romanoff is farther left than Bennet who tried to get away with being a centrist. As soon as Romanoff announced, Bennet starting sounding like a liberal. Late last night I even saw an ad on tv where Bennet tried to make it sound like he was personally responsible for all the good things in the HCR bill.

One more factor is that Governor Ritter, a Dem, is having problems now.

[sharesunited]

18. Here are the Democratic contenders for that seat courtesy of politics1.com

Alexi Giannoulias (D) - State Treasurer & Ex-Banker
David Hoffman (D) - Ex-City of Chicago Inspector General, Attorney & Ex-Congressional Aide
Cheryle Robinson Jackson (D) - Chicago Urban League President
Robert Marshall (D) - Physician, Vietnam War Veteran & '90/'98 GOP US Rep. Nominee
Jacob Meister (D) - Attorney & Ex-Congressional Aide

[placton]

4. wow! everyone agrees!

and offff we go to the new year!

[cali]

5. I think Mikulski will win, so will Lincoln and Murray

in fact, I think your predictions are way off. Dems may lose up to 7 seats in the Senate. They won't lose anywhere near the number you're predicting.

[placton]

6. still a bloodbath, even with your numbers, tho?

[Alexander]

8. Up to 7 is not nearly as bad as your prediction of 11.

I'd like to see what you are basing these predictions on.

[cali]

11. well, not a bloodbath but not good for dems either

The Dems will hold the majority but it'll be a much slimmer margin.

[Alexander]

7. I'm supporting Merrick Alpert over Chris Dodd in Connecticut.

Alpert is running a Lamont-style primary against Dodd.

Dodd is going to lose, hands down. I just want this seat kept Democratic.

Some of your predictions I'm not so sure about. This list is unnecessarily pessimistic.

Mikulski losing her seat? She's been in Congress forever, she's not going to lose. Same with Patty Murray. Byron Dorgan? Come on. Do you have any polling that even remotely supports these conclusions?

Gillibrand losing her seat? Against whom? Republicans haven't put up any halfway decent challengers.

How are we going to lose Pennsylvania? You seriously think Pat Toomey is going to win? We don't even know whether it'll be Specter or Sestak yet, and polls show both of them can beat Toomey.

How do you have Democrats losing Illinois and Delaware? The worst polls show a tie, and Obama and Biden are pretty popular in those states.

Not so sure we're going to lose Florida, especially if Marco Rubio beats Crist. I also think we stand a good chance of winning Missouri and Ohio. Burr isn't exactly Mr. Popularity in North Carolina, either.

We will face a net loss in 2010, that's for sure. But it isn't going to be anywhere near the bloodbath you are predicting.

[eleny]

14. Do you think that Connecticut voters will elect a Republican after the lesson of Lieberman?

What's the feeling you get?

[Alexander]

21. Over Chris Dodd? Yes. Normally, no.

Dodd is perceived as being corrupt and out-of-touch. To be honest, he is.

He's the Senator who allowed Countrywide, et al. to award themselves bonuses with stimulus money, while he was getting a sweetheart deal from Countrywide on the side.

He also moved himself and his entire family to Iowa during his 2008 presidential run - which went nowhere.

I don't see Connecticut as normally supporting Republicans for the US Senate, which is why I'm backing Alpert. CT does, however, really want to get rid of Dodd very badly. And I can't say I blame them.

[eleny]

25. Thanks, Alexander

It's a pretty bad situation in Connecticut as it is here in Colorado.

[placton]

16. wait til the Health Deform debacle is signed

then all bets are off

[Alexander]

22. That's an if, not a when.

We'll see if the more liberal Democrats in Congress make good on their promise not to vote for anything that is bereft of a public option.

This means the House, too.

[Cleita]

9. Thanks for the list.

I was about to make one myself.

:thumbsup:

[FLAprogressive]

10. I don't think we lose Mikulski, Dorgan, and Murray.

Dodd, Bennet, Reid, and Mitt Gillibrand are write-offs.

[IndianaGreen]

13. I am NOT voting for Evan Bayh

He is a health industry whore, as is his wife!

[salin]

30. me neither...

but he'll win here without us. :hi:

[WeDidIt]

15. I think your predictions are full of shit.

Of your nine in the first list, two at most will be lost (Lincoln and Dodd) Of those two, I think we'll retain one.

Of the retiring Dems, we lose neither. Biden will win his father's seat in Delaware and Giannoulias will pick up Obama's seat.

Of the retiring GOP Senators, we'll pick up New Hampshire and Ohio. Possibly Florida and Missouri.

Of the remaining GOP incumbents, a fight in Arizona could throw it to the Dems if there's a third party run after a bitter GOP primary.

Overall, I say Dems get a net pickup of two seats in the Senate, pushing Lieberman to the back bench.

[placton]

17. I hope you are right, and I am dead wrong

see you next november

[eleny]

19. Giannoulias, the banker

Yikes.

My liberal pal in Chicagoland said she won't vote for him. :shrug:

But I've got my own problems here in Colorado. :(

[WeDidIt]

20. Giannoulias, the State Treasurer

He'll win hands down.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

23. I'll be voting for the most Progressive, anti-war, candidate on the ballot.

Even if I have to write one in.


“Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost." --John Quincy Adams

"I never submitted the whole system of my opinions to the creed of any party of men whatever, in religion, in philosophy, in politics, or in anything else, where I was capable of thinking for myself. Such an addiction is the last degradation of a free and moral agent. If I could not go to heaven but with a party, I would not go there at all." --Thomas Jefferson to Francis Hopkinson, 1789.

"Were parties here divided merely by a greediness for office,...to take a part with either would be unworthy of a reasonable or moral man." --Thomas Jefferson to William Branch Giles, 1795.

[LastNaturalist]

24. You obviously haven't been paying attention. No offense.

Mikulski is as safe as safe can be. Dorgan is safe so far, unless Hoeven runs. We have even oddds at Bunning's seat. Specter will eek out a victory. Patty Murray is very safe. Illinois and Delaware are not about to send Republicans to the Senate: Giannoulias is winning, and Castle is unpopular since he voted against healthcare.

Meanwhile, Burr is vulnerable against Elaine Marshall, Vitter is vulnerable against Charlie Melancon, Paul Hodes has a better than even chance to pick up New Hampshire, Voinovich is seat will go to Fisher/Brunner and Missouri is also a pick up with Robin Carnahan.

[Alexander]

26. Obviously.

[BlueDemKev]

29. Forget Louisiana

I live in the south, and unfortunately, Melancon has no chance against Vitter. Vitter was tied to prostitution rings back in 2007 and Melancon is a blue dog democrat if there ever was one (perfect for Louisiana), and yet Vitter is ahead by double-digits.

How? Because Obama is so unpopular in Louisiana (can't figure out why, considering almost everything he's doing helps them, less cap-n-trade), so Vitter is simply running against Obama, instead of Melancon.

Pathetic.

[MH1]

27. Why will we lose PA? Specter will lose to Sestak and Sestak will blow the doors off Toomey.

However if somehow Specter survives Sestak, you may be right. The democratic party base will not be highly motivated to support Specter.

[BlueDemKev]

28. Specter is WAY ahead of Sestek

And Specter vs. Toomey will be a tough match to win UNLESS we can rally the liberal base to (specifically in Philly & Pitt) to get out and vote in droves.

[onenote]

31. since you asked for reasoned analysis, would it be too much to ask you for the same?

The only analysis I've seen you offer for your prediction is that once the health care bill is signed, a whole lot of Democratic incumbents are doomed. Is that it?

Oh, and quick question -- without looking it up, name the candidate that is going to knock off Mikulski. The one that has raised $85,000 to her $2.5 million in a state where buying television time can get expensive).