What Happens If The Bill Doesn't Pass (From Krugman's Blog)

[dtotire]

December 19, 2009, 11:11 am
60

So, it seems that Harry Reid has done it. What I’m hearing is that the plan for the next few days calls for more or less nonstop action, with a series of cloture votes at crazy times, so as to get the health care bill through the Senate by Christmas Day.

It’s not the bill progressives hoped for. But it’s the bill that can pass, now.

And here’s what happens if a bill isn’t passed now: Democrats lose seats — maybe a lot of seats — in the 2010 midterms. A weakened President Obama wins reelection, maybe - but even that isn’t certain. No way he has the votes for another try at health care before 2015. Quite possibly, there isn’t another chance until 2021.

Some people say that we should throw it away and start over; is this what they have in mind? Because that’s the reality of what would happen.

If the bill is passed, it will make health insurance available to millions of people who can’t get it now either because of preexisting conditions, or because they just don’t make enough: community rating and the subsidies — remember, we’re talking about almost $900 billion in aid — will make a huge difference. Yes, there will be some people forced to buy insurance by the individual mandate; everything I’ve seen says that the number of people for whom this will be a real hardship will be far less than the shouting suggests.

We can some back to this. Progressives can push for bigger subsidies; stronger exchanges; a reinstated public option; stronger cost controls. Some of these things can be done through reconciliation. Having this bill in place will make it easier, not harder, to do these things than having passed nothing.

I’m not happy — this is too flawed a bill for joy — but I am relieved ( or will be once I’m sure that Joe Lieberman isn’t going to pull a double-cross). You can’t always get what you want. But if you try sometimes you might find you get what you need.

[endless october]

1. when does the "re-instated PO" happen?

put it in now and there's no problem.

but i'm supposed to back an insurance company profit bailout to help the 2010 elections? no thanks.

if i thought this could go anywhere good, i would back it NOW.

[JVS]

2. Does Krugman not realize that democrats will lose seats for passing this?

[BP2]

5. As Paul says, "It’s not the bill progressives hoped for

But it’s the bill that can pass, now."

If there is retribution, as he suggests, it sounds like he thinks it'll come from the Pukes.

But based upon the response from some on DU today, it might come from other voters who aren't as generous as Krugman is on this topic.

[Kansas Wyatt]

7. A LOT more seats will be lost if it passes, than if it doesn't pass.

The time is up for "Hope."

You only get to use "hope" once, then you have to put up or shut up.

No Public Option with mandates equals betrayed and pissed off Americans.

[Tom Rinaldo]

3. I have a deal for Krugman

He says:

"We can some back to this. Progressives can push for bigger subsidies; stronger exchanges; a reinstated public option; stronger cost controls. Some of these things can be done through reconciliation. Having this bill in place will make it easier, not harder, to do these things than having passed nothing."

If this Administraton will FIRST pledge in public, with Congressional leadership in agreement, that it will do exactly that, including a promise to use reconciliation to attain those ends, I will support this bill (if Abortion Rights are not harmed by it).

That's fair, isn't it? Given all the broken promises to date I think that's pretty generous to be willing to accept another one. But given all that has happened so far, he can't really expect us to simply hope that this administration will keep fighting for those changes, can he? Without an upfront pledge to the contrary, I believe this Administration wants to wrap up HCR with this bill and move along, not to be seriously looked at again.

[Laelth]

4. If the bill doesn't pass, the states will get the chance to fix the problem.

California will probably pass single payer on its own in 2011. All they need is a Democratic Governor. The legislature has already passed the bill. Schwarzenegger vetoed it. Once California has single-payer, most (if not all) states will follow suit.

It's likely that if we pass a new law now, the new law will preempt single-payer, i.e. the Federal law will preempt state law and prevent states from enacting a single-payer system.

THIS is what the health insurance companies fear. THIS is what brought them to the bargaining table. THIS is why they are not fighting Obama's tepid reforms, and THIS is why it is extremely important that we do not pass any health insurance reform bill this year.

Let's not settle for a bail-out of the health insurance industry. Let's insist on the eradication of it. In all likelihood, California will lead the way in 2011 ... if we can just give them time.

Canada got its single-payer system one province at a time, and it looks like that's the only way it can happen in the United States.

I don't think the Federal Government is capable of reforming the system right now. If this bill is the best the Federal Government can do, then the Federal Government should do nothing. It's time to let the states try.

Kill the bill.

Forcing people to buy insurance is no more the answer to a failed health care system than forcing people to buy houses is the solution to homelessness.

:dem:

-Laelth

[jwirr]

6. Where does it say the states have a chance to fix health care if this

passes? I understood that there is a clause in this bill that would allow states the freedom to do that inside the bill.

[Laelth]

20. That's the Kucinich Amendment to the House bill.

The Kucinich Amendment passed out of committee, but Nancy Peolsi stripped the amendment from the bill in House conference (and she did so, probably, under direct orders from the White House).

Believe what you will, but it seems one of the primary functions of this bill is to prevent any state from enacting a single-payer system.

:dem:

-Laelth

[jwirr]

23. I did not realize that amendment had been taken out. Wasn't Bernie

talking about something today about it would have to come from the states?

[snagglepuss]

8. Important points. This should be a separate thread. nt

[leftstreet]

13. Absolutely! This should be a new thread

:thumbsup:

[Hekate]

9. If the bill fails to pass the Repubs and FOX will declare victory. The "Obama's Waterloo" meme

If the bill fails to pass the Repubs and FOX will declare victory. The "Obama's Waterloo" meme...

... will be shouted from every RW microphone, picked up by the MSM and repeated as endlessly as "Dean's scream," and with the same amount of legitimacy (which is to say, none).

But you know what they say: Repeat the Big Lie often enough, and people will take it for the truth.

Hekate

[optimator]

10. krugman needs to stick to economics

and stfu about everything else.

[Hekate]

12. What do you think "economics" is?Krugman's the only one out there who brings it to the kitchen table

... instead of focusing exclusively on Wall Street. Paul Krugman is the real deal.

Hekate

[WilliamPitt]

15. (facepalm)

[MadHound]

11. Paul, you're making the same assumption that the Democratic party is making

Basically that you can ignore the liberal/left/progressive wing of the party. Sorry, but that doesn't fly anymore. Obama has already pissed off the anti-war left to the point where many if not most of them won't vote Democratic in '10 and '12. Now you're adding this travesty of "reform" to the mix.

Sorry, but the Dems are going to take a large beating for a long while. Don't say that you weren't warned.

[Kahuna]

17. Well well well. Threats threats threats. You forget, you too will suffer from

your own threatened actions. If the last 8 years of bushco didn't teach you about sitting on your hands and letting the other guys win nothing will. I don't want to hear the whining about it either. I will have just four words for you. STFU.

[MadHound]

19. Hell, I'm suffering no matter who's been in office

Under Clinton we got NAFTA, financial deregulation, 500,000 dead innocents in Iraq, media consolidation, outsourcing, welfare "reform" and the return to bubble economies. Under Bush we got more of the same, and under Obama, oh boy, more of the same ol' same ol' Some real "change" there:eyes:

I love bully boys like you, you ass u me things that aren't true and try to silence opposition. I've been in the political game since before you were even a gleam in your daddy's eye, your threats and bluster mean nothing to me, all it shows is that you lack in intelligence, aptitude and the common social graces. Oh well.

What are you going to stop me, you big strong keyboard commando, come up out of your basement or something:rofl:

[BzaDem]

21. I don't think anyone's really afraid of you

The bill is going to pass despite you. There isn't much more to it than that.

[MadHound]

22. You're probably right, the bill is going to become law

And when you start paying down twenty seven percent of your income for insurance premiums, when women find their rights restricted, when the middle, working and poor classes are destroyed by this mandated monopoly for the insurance industry, don't say that you weren't warned.

"Really afraid of you", typical bully boy mindset, thinking in terms of threats and violence:rofl:

Where've been these past couple of mornings, I've missed your amusingly inane lockstep posting.

[Kahuna]

24. Phew! Where to begin with your asinine assumptions. I'm not a bully "boy"..

and I doubt that you are very much older than I am, if at all. And I made no threats other than to tell you to STFU when you complain AGAIN under republican rule. And your last paragraph about coming out from my basement is too lame and too inept to even bother with a snappy reply. The only thing I might add is that if you are indeed as old as you claim (I somehow doubt it though from your behavior), you should probably try to act your age. It's high time y'know.

[TiberiusGracchus]

14. Oh great now we're taking plays out of the rightwing FEARMONGERING playbook?!

"Pass this bill or democrats will all commit seppuku and you will never get good healthcare legislation again!!"

That shit might work on the thoughtless teabaggers but give us a fucking BREAK. If we elect democrats who can't bring themselves to fight for our principles then WE MUST KEEP REPLACING THEM.

[Fire1]

16. I don't think too many progressives have thought of that.

That's too much work and accurately describes THE problem. Much easier to blame Obama.

[AllentownJake]

18. When Mr. Krugman says the administration was incompetent economically again

I expect the same people to be posting his opinion...since he's speaking about his expertise there, economics.