You can't tie down electoral defeat to a single issue

[jpgray]

Mass human behavior is far too complex. Even after consulting polls for hours and plotting strategic plans to net the most votes at the least cost, political handlers who train for years on this stuff miss the mark time and again. The truth is there are too many factors both tangible and intangible to say "Democrats lose because of abortion" or "Democrats lose because of gun control." The fact of the matter is, ignoring the effect that attempted political triangulation and over-handling causes on a candidate's chances needs to be studied as well. No one stance, even a marginally accepted stance, on an issue can wholly sink a candidate, barring a massive scandal or image crisis.

The reason it often seems that gun control or morality sink Democrats is precisely -because- such issues are designed to give the Democrats the losing position, and the Republicans the strong position. In other words, the Republicans push issues they already have the electorally strongest position on. The Democrat is then forced to pander to this position or meet it halfway. But you'll note most of the "strong issues" Republicans run on will have no effect on their actual goals, which are economic. Gay marriage is opposed even by some GOP office-holders who are later revealed to be homosexual themselves. How to explain this? At a certain point of wealth and political power, lack of marriage doesn't have a big impact on their lifestyle. Financial concerns such as deregulation, weakening labor rights, and corporate graft have a much bigger impact.

Therefore Republicans can safely batter away at the ballot boxes of Democratic candidates without any active risk to that which they hold dear--their economic platfrom. An economic platform that is wildly unpopular once explained fully to the vast majority of Americans. Since Democrats hold issues such as equal rights or abortion rights very dear, they are not in a good strategic position--they are forced to be "Republican-lite," to meet the detestable stance of Republicans halfway in their handlers' eyes to avoid hemorrhaging votes.

The fact is, the real need is to make these superficial issues less important than the true issues facing the country. Republicans can easily retreat on gay marriage or abortion rights if it becomes unpopular, because they don't really care. Stem cell research is a good example--many pols have abandoned the rote GOP line on this issue because it is profoundly unpopular. The minute the hardcore religious votes don't offset the other lost votes effectively, they will jump ship, because on the grand scheme of things, it doesn't change their main goals. Those are chiefly economic goals.

So instead of constantly playing defense on issues designed to hurt Democrats, Democrats should take what stance they will on those window dressing issues and instead fight back hard where the GOP is profoundly weak, as polls show time and again--economics. GOP power is based on their economic platform, and they can't effectively retreat from their stances as they may on the superficial morality issues because their financial and political coalitions are all largely based on those issues. Instead of hearing "gun control/gay marriage is a losing issue for Democrats," you would increasingly hear "CEO welfare is a losing issue for the GOP." And instead of a politician being forced to take a wrong stance to keep votes, you would see politicians forced to take the right stance for the same reasons.

[stillcool]

1. Democrats lose because of fraud?

By targeting voter fraud, White House cuts voters
Rights advocates say minorities and the poor kept from pol

By Greg Gordon, McClatchy Newspapers
WASHINGTON - For six years, the Bush administration, aided by Justice Department political appointees, has pursued an aggressive legal effort to restrict voter turnout in key battleground states in ways that favor Republican political candidates

[jpgray]

2. Certainly hurts. But that's just one potential cause. For some people it's Nader, guns, gay rights

Everybody has the data and the logic to back up their position. But every one of them could be wrong, or all of them could be right. There's no way to determine an absolute cause of an electoral loss--there are just far too many factors.