A sign that the jobless recovery may become a new jobs recovery?

[Godhumor]

"Fewer Americans than anticipated filed claims for jobless benefits last week, signaling the worst employment slump in the post-World War II era is easing as the economy expands.

Initial unemployment claims fell by 12,000 to 502,000 in the week ended Nov. 7, the lowest level since January, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people receiving jobless benefits dropped, as did those getting extended payments."

...

"Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York last week said payrolls may soon stop dropping. Their research showed that jobless claims at around 500,000 are consistent with stable payrolls with the unemployment rate around the current level.

'The economy is approaching the point at which employment stabilizes and then begins to grow,' Chief Economist Bruce Kasman and colleague Abiel Reinhart wrote in a Nov. 6 note to clients."


The article does try to balance this out with quotes from the Fed on this being a less than robust recovery for an extended period of time, but it would be nice if there is finally some sign that trimming staff has reached the basement floor, so to speak.

Article: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQgsR8PkBmqw&pos=1

[Craftsman]

1. When you slit a hogs throat the bleeding eventually slows

But that is due to blood lose not healing

[Vinnie From Indy]

2. I have never trusted the "jobless claims" number as being reflective of true unemployment

I think that many folks are simply "disappeared" when they fall off the rolls. The dirty little secret about future employment growth is the fact that MANY of the new jobs will pay significantly less than the jobs lost. Is it really a good thing for America that an unemployed engineer who used to earn 45k a year is now making 15k or less a year as liquor store clerk?

[rfranklin]

3. It is meaningless...no new jobs are being created...

Over the past ten years there has been a net loss of jobs. When the Bush administration was trumpeting miniscule gains in jobs, the truth was that they weren't even keeping up with population growth. And you are right, many people who once had good jobs have now given up or are struggling with minimum wage service jobs or are self-employed and making a lot less than before.

[SoCalDem]

5. There can never be "enough" jobs..

we have peaked:(

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/SoCalDem/190

Decades-worth of unnecessary jobs/businesses have come to an end.

Posted by SoCalDem in General Discussion

Thu Oct 15th 2009, 04:47 PM

This is what's at the crux of our next problem.

We (the US) are no longer the driving force in the world. We no longer make & provide the necessities of life for the world.

When we stopped BIG manufacturing, on a grand scale, we switched to a "make-work" economy, where paper-pushing, phone-answering, consulting, counseling, tending-to, etc., became our "new way".

We were all told that manufacturing was dirty, time-consuming, back-breaking work...it polluted (it really did), it was costly to maintain and innovate all those creaky old factories, and our "colonies" abroad could do the work for pennies on the dollar...YAY!! cheap stuff.

The manipulation of currency and trade deals and so many other financial shenanigans drove this runaway bus, but it's finally run out of gas, and there are so many enterprises that will never be coming back, and so many jobs will never return either.

We can accept the fact that the fantastic steel mill wages & UAW wages and so many other "good" jobs will never again be here, but even the cruddy soul-sucking desk/cubicle jobs are scarce now.

We overdid it, because so many people had to have an income, and that meant there had to be jobs for people, even if they were not "necessary" jobs.

Those of us who are older, have a reference point to gauge the changes.

A town of 20-30K used to have a few shoe stores, a few good department stores, a couple of grocery stores, maybe 2 or 3 theaters..There was competition, but there was also enough business to support all (or most) of these businesses. Many were businesses that had been there for 50 year or more, and had supported families, employed people, and prospered. They were NOT 110K sq.ft./jammed to the rafters stores. They were modest family businesses. The owners did not "borrow to meet payroll". they paid for their merchandise with the 10-day-discount, they saved their profit, for lean times, and they did not loot their businesses for their own gratification.

Everywhere you go today, things are exactly the same, all towns have the same stores, restaurants, etc. People all work for the same bosses, because a precious few own everything. Entrepreneurs start a business, it prospers a little, and they immediately look into selling it for "big-bucks" to a corporate cannibal, who guts it, lays people off, and passes it on to the next corporate cannibal, looking for a write-off. The customers & employees of that company just fall by the wayside.

There is more to business than just price-cutting and undercutting. People have basic needs and they have wants & desires. Businesses crop up to satisfy these needs & wants, but when there are too many places offering these goods & services, there's not enough demand to keep them all afloat.

People are lazy, and they like to get everything easy. It's no wonder that the shopping center idea took root in the 60's & 70's, but too much it still too much.

We were all better off when we had fewer "choices", but those choices were goods made by, transported by, sold by our own fellow citizens, and the commerce was spread around to everyone along the line. Money circulated and it made stops all along the ladder..top to bottom.

Progress always puts someone out of business, but hyper-progress and mass consumerism has put millions out of work, and millions more deep into life-crushing debt..and lowered wages for most of us.

What's next?

Where will all these unemployed find work?

house building-selling-furnishing? unlikely anytime soon

will 45-60 yr olds "go back to school" so they can start over? unlikely

just how does a 24 yr old saddled with 40K of school debt, ever get out of debt in time to start a life?

If 35-40% of income goes to put a roof over your head and 30% is "acceptable" for medical COVERAGE (not the actual medical procedures), how does the remaining 30% lead one to a comfortable lifestyle?

all questions & no answers yet..

stay tuned..it's going to be an interesting docu-drama

[Sinti]

6. Most of this is absolutely true - but you're only thinking of "what is"

It's important to think of what could be. We are seeing systemic failure of an entire economic system right now. There are other ways to run the economy of a nation. We are smart primates, as humans, and are never limited to "what is." We must create a better system.

Progress always puts someone out of business, but hyper-progress and mass consumerism has put millions out of work, and millions more deep into life-crushing debt..and lowered wages for most of us.

To me, this statement, while technically true, seems completely illogical. How can using more stuff make less jobs? How can "progress" make life harder for people? It doesn't make sense. The problem is that we focus on the paper, the thing we pass around to represent resources, innovation and labor. I think we need to recognize that this paper will not sustain life, it is the underlying thing it represents that sustains life.

Making larger and larger piles of this paper to sit with the intention of gathering more paper is a very flawed economic system. Not employing human beings to produce things because you are able to acquire more paper by leaving them jobless does not make logical sense - unless you value the paper more highly than human beings. The paper is merely sleight of hand.

If less work is required of us, as human beings, in order to produce the products we use, then we should have more leisure time. Man is innovative very often in an effort to create more leisure time - hence, laziness can be creative.

The only real problem I see is the weird paper worship, the need to blame rather than look at the root of the problem, and of course the ever-raging battle between: "Greed is Good" and "Generosity is Good." Our party won, shouldn't we be getting in tune with the latter?

Obviously, the nation has been taken over by some weird coin-worshiping cult from outer-space, and the most of the human beings here are still in shock. As they begin to realize what has happened, in "face-palm" fashion, they will again understand that they acquire their means of survival by working together and dividing labor in amicable ways. I do hope that the human beings don't allow themselves to seek vengeance on the coin-worshiping cult, after all, they too were fooled by this false ideology.

It confuses me why the Christians don't see this. Their book of myths, stories and suggestions is full of warnings about this cult.

[SoCalDem]

7. "using" more stuff.. cheap stuff from China, Viet Nam, India, Malaysia, etc

and since everything still costs money, leisure time is not something we can afford:( Bosses don;t like to pay people to be idle:(

Barring a total collapse (not pleasant to think about) , we will have an impossible task ahead, to even change things a little bit.. We gave the keys to the asylum., to the inmates, and all they want from us now is go away, and shut up.. oh .. and to keep sending them money:(

[Sinti]

11. We need to deprogram nearly the entire nation

They need to realize that $$ are not worth more than any human life. I think regularly about where one might begin, and I can reach individuals on a one-to-one basis - but they go right back in a week or so.

Money, within our society, has the sole purpose of attracting more money. You don't want to do anything with your coin that will not bring you more coin, otherwise you'd be better off just holding the coin in a vault somewhere. This is basically a psychosis, IMO.

Ayn Rand - started up the modern cult, but these cults have existed before.

Money, when it was invented, was intended to facilitate trade. It's easier to pass coins around than to barter, especially when there are a lot of goods available. It's purpose is not to make more of itself.

Greed, in those days, would have been a want for more and more luxuries - which would have kept the merchants and artisans in business. Coin is only as good as what else it can buy, it can't feed you, clothe you, house you, or keep you warm at night - you have to give it away to get that stuff. Greed today is a desire for more and more coin - very strange.

People need to open their hearts - greed is not good, it kills you, it kills your neighbors and everyone else. Generosity does just the opposite, it supports and sustains life. We need to find a way to make this clear, or we will probably all die.

Look at Easter Island - it is possible they all died off, because they worshiped the stone men. The stone men had more value than human life. So, the stone men still stand, but the humans have long since died off.

Fortunately, like the coin-worshiping cult, once you get a new idea started it will often start to grow on its own. It's the getting it started that's the problem.

[SoCalDem]

12. We quit "spending" in 2004, and have not missed it at all

I have not been inside our mall in 5 years...it's about 10 minutes from my house.

Shopping becomes pathological.. the more you see, the more you want..and most people have houses stuffed to the rafters with stuff..stuff they probably don;t even want..but they think they need it..

Parents are saving stuff for their kids, and when they die, those kids will say. "what they HELL did they keep this for?..they will laugh and throw most of it away..

I've already told my boys that I want all three of them to plan on spending a week next summer.,.no wives..no friend-visiting.. just time with me & dad & we're gonna go through this house & the storage unit in the back yard, and they';re either going to take stuff home with them. or at least tag it, so we know what they want,, and waht we can toss:)

[Sinti]

13. It's a different world when you focus on what makes you happy

rather than what might make me look as good, or better than the other guy. Hording is a natural reaction to a fear of lack, though. It's a basic survival instinct. It's crazy what I've seen people store and keep for... I have no idea what for.

[NNN0LHI]

9. I agree that the good UAW jobs will not be back as long as Americans keep buying foreign cars

That is a given.

Don

[SoCalDem]

10. We opened the flood gates in the 80's and there's no going back

Detroit laughed at the dinky little "toy-cars" and paid no attention to what was happening..

We could have competed then, but it's too late now..

[XemaSab]

14. My last job paid 50K a year

My next job, which starts next week, will pay $8.75 an hour. x(

[earthside]

4. Then There Is This ...

Job openings remain close to record lows - USA Today

Job openings are at rock-bottom levels, according to government and private surveys released Tuesday, a trend that could keep the unemployment rate high even as layoffs slow.

Small businesses in particular are reluctant to add workers as they struggle to obtain credit. Many are pushing their current employees to produce more. Economists say small businesses account for about 60% of new jobs. ...

These week-to-week 'new claims' numbers are interesting and an indicator of the current state of lay-offs. But as this recession goes on, the bigger question becomes more and more are there any indications that real hiring is underway?

And when you look at the still declining tax receipts in the states, it is clear that the recession is deepening, not bottoming ... and certainly it is not over by any means.

[Toucano]

8. Any improvement is welcome news, but there is a cancer on our economy

that requires a more radical treatment in order to fully recover.