Your predictions of America's economic future

[brentspeak]

Not a cheery post.

Here's a few of my predictions, though I know some believe Number Two to be way-out-there:

1) The deliberate demolition of the nation's manufacturing capacity has permanently killed the nation's economy (that's not a prediction, but history, which we're living through right now). In its place will be decades and decades of periodic attempts to start-up bubble, fad economies. The real estate bubble/fad grew and burst. What will be the bubbles of the future? Security teams to protect the nation's rich? I don't know.

2) If not a mass exodus of Americans seeking better prospects in other nations, at least the attempt by lots of people to do so. How many Americans will Canada allow into their country? Americans seeking refuge in...Mexico?? We're already seeing migrations of people out of Michigan, Florida, California, Ohio, etc.

3) Many desperate people in different parts of the nation subscribing to far-RW movements -- I mean, more than ever before.

4) In some states, some privatization of public roads. Private toll-booths, etc.

5) Game shows emulating Argentina -- offering jobs as prizes.

[OffWithTheirHeads]

1. We've been shock doctrined. It's already too late.

We're fucked and it's only going to get worse.

[Speck Tater]

2. The few who survive will have to rediscover the basic hunter-gatherer skills of our predecessors. nt

[Statistical]

3. You are aware the US has the largest industrial base and is 3rd largest exporter in the world.

The manufacturing output of the United States is roughly equal to that of the #2 (Japan) and #3 (China) nations COMBINED.

The idea that the US "doesn't make anything" is a tired meme.

Does the US make $9.99 plastic toys at Walmart? No.

Does the US make satellites, networking equipments, semi-conductors, heavy industrial equipment, precision cutting machinery, construction equipment, automobiles, civilian aviation, power turbines, telecom equipment, weapon systems, industrial chemicals, nuclear reactors and refined petroleum products? Yes.

[brentspeak]

4. Not quite. Many manufacturing statistics purposefully throw in US-BASED companies

American products made in Mexico, China, etc. by foreign laborers are often counted as "domestic" products.

on edit: I should also point out that, similarly, Japan shouldn't really be considered "No.2", as most of their products are actually no longer being manufactured within Japan, but in China, S.Korea, etc.

[Statistical]

7. lol.... No it doesn't. Have you even cracked a book on the subject?

If US company has a plant in Mexico that makes $1B worth of widgets that $1B in output will be a part of Mexico industrial output not US. GDP deals with location of production not ownership of it.

The US produced $2,696,880,000,000 worth of industrial goods in 2005 (latest year I could find easily) which is roughly 18% of the world industrial output ($14,931,200,000,000).

No other country even comes close.

[brentspeak]

12. That may be true regarding GDP figures, but not with all manufacturing indices

But the GDP itself is a pretty useless figure to measure economic status, anyway.

Here's more direct questions which gets right to the heart of the matter:

What will be the jobs to replace all the millions of lost manufacturing jobs in Michigan, Ohio, elsewhere? You're talking specifically about industrial production, and conflating that with manufacturing production.

[Statistical]

16. Well jobs is a trickier issue than inudstrial output.

At one point in this country it took 1 person to feed every 10. As such our economy was 3/4th agricultural. Over time productivity gains mean it only requires one person to feed about 300.

Industrial output has grown however inudstrial output has grown SLOWER than productivity gains.
Unless that changes more jobs will be shed even as total output goes up.
Lowering productivity isn't a viable solution (would just make us less competitive) so goal of US state dept should be to open up more foreign ports especially with key growing economies like Brazil.

[AllentownJake]

13. Hey I was looking for you earlier

What do you think of the neat little trick they pulled of releasing GDP numbers yesterday and than releasing September numbers showing weakening consumer spending the next day.

I knew something didn't make sense in that report.

[Statistical]

18. I don't think it was a "trick" just timing of reports by two different agencies.

From a stock market perspective it would have been better to have both on the same day. Good to balance out the bad.

From everything I could see decline today was technically driven. Funds wanting to close month positive so when market began to decline large players sold off to lock in gains and show mutual fund owners that they "won" for month of October.

Bad news on end of a month that was positive combined with large run up and the desire to lock in gains.... the decline was rather predictable. Sold some nice call spreads

[AllentownJake]

23. The reports were from the same agency

and they needed the September numbers to calculate the quarter numbers.

[Statistical]

25. well if it was a "trick" it was the worst possible setup for market.

Kinda like someone helping you cheat on a test by giving you all the wrong answers.

[AllentownJake]

27. it really wasn't a trick on the market

Most of the big players have their own reports and can read tea leaves without the aid of government reports.

This was more a media trick. You release bad news on Friday.

[treestar]

34. +1

For contribution of sanity. The U.S. is the leading manufacturer in the world. You wouldn't know that by reading DU.

[Autumn]

5. Way it's going now?

Down hill all the way.

[andym]

6. You've left out perhaps the most important factor

The unremarkable levels of educated Americans who can participate in current and future technology development has already doomed this country. Not to mention that many of the same Americans don't really understand economics very well, or even what is happening in their own country.

Couple that with China's 3-4X larger internal market and pool of talent (more and more of which are receiving reasonable education) and we can predict that China will overtake the US as the world's economic superpower within the next generation.

[HamdenRice]

9. Even if China overtakes the US, so what?

That's what I don't get about these predictions.

The US overtook Britain, but life in the UK is better than it was back when Britain was on top.

It's not a zero sum game.

[Statistical]

10. Exactly. US losing supremacy likely would force US to accept a realistic military budget.

[HamdenRice]

11. That would be the best part of it -- and is what happened to Britain. nt

[HamdenRice]

8. Fail !

Recovery.

High tech manufacturing rebound as under Clinton.

Restructuring of the financial system.

Health care overhaul this year leading to universal coverage with a Medicare for all option by 2012.

Stringent new environmental regs leading to new green industries and a reduction of greenhouse gases.

Oh, I forgot. The most likely, realistic outcome does not conform to dystopian doomer scenarios, nor to Obama hater epic fail fantasies.

[AllentownJake]

14. Can I smoke what you are smoking?

1) The jobs of the Clinton recovery, well business found out they could outsource those too.

2) None of the present bills before congress remotely restructure the financial system. They are all weak at best, counter productive at worst.

3) The Health Care overhaul is rather weak and the democrats are projecting losses in the 2010 midterms.

4) Yet to see number 4 but if you are talking about cap and trade that is another odd piece of legislation that creates a financial product to be traded but not sure if it is a job creator.

P.S. So go back to telling me how much I personally hate the man I campaigned for, for 9 months because you live in some sort of utopian dream world.

[depakid]

15. Third world bound in the next decade

[Jkid]

17. My prediction

More Economic Bubbles
More Two-Tired Service Jobs
Rise of price necessities with out minimum wage increase
No New Infrastructure
America Becomes Brazil

Final Destination

[Statistical]

19. Brazil is the 4th fastest growing economy in the world.

Might want to choose another country if your goal was doom & gloom.

[Jkid]

26. Then why there are slums near every city?

[OutNow]

20. Poorer and Dumber

Economic future

Your kids will be poorer and dumber than you and your spouse

That includes less job security, less savings for their kids education, less savings for their retirement which leads to

Your grand kids will be poorer and dumber than your kids

Repeat.....

Once we get over our mantra of "we're number one" it will be a slow slide down the economic ladder

OTOH, if we consume fuel and other goods in proportion to our population rather than 6X as much as other folks, it might actually help the planet

[dysfunctional press]

21. we'll eventually get our act together, possibly in the next decade or two.

alternative energy will drive the next phase of the economy. a couple of abandoned car factories are gearing up to make electrics- it's a start.
we'll be forced to reign in our worldwide military presence, in a swords-into-plowshares move to put people to work rebuilding our infrastructure.

we still have a LOT of people, people with abilities, and resources.

and we WILL get single-payer done. the people will INSIST on it.

[AllentownJake]

22. Gradual decline

spiked by false recoveries spurred on by Governement debt.

Ghost malls and shopping centers, a few riots, and declining home values as banks continue to unload housing they are currently holding on their balance sheets to prop up balance sheets.

At least 2 giant failures of banks the size of Citi, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo.

A failure of one of the giant media conglomerates.

Both a right wing movement and a socialist movement spurred on by tough economic times. With both parties trying to capitilize off of them while simultaneously control them.

Increased local and state taxes to attempt to pay for social services with measured push back.

[iceman66]

24. Bush dug us into such a deep hole,

it will take at least two full Obama terms to even begin to dig us out.

If Obama is re-elected, I'd expect to see some substantial improvement in the economy in about 2015 or so. If not, all bets are off.

[depakid]

28. Real wages have been decline for 30 years

and the gini coefficient (a measure of income inequality) has been increasing at an impressive rate.

Much as we would like, we can't blame all of that on Bush- or even the Republicans.

[Statistical]

29. Not true. Real wages have NOT been in decline for 30 years.

Want the real figure or are you happy just making them up?

[depakid]

30. Actually, it's been longer than that...

http://www.workinglife.org/wiki/Wages+and+Benefits:+Real+Wages+%281964-2004%29

There is of course, some fluctuation- but the trend is unmistakable.

[bikingaz]

33. Real wages have dropped & our future will be bleaker

We'll move from a position of world leadership to a 2nd tier country. Out there but no one really cares, akin to something like Argentina.

Bankrupt government, masses of un-employed college graduates with no work, crumbing economy, decimated manufacturing base.

We hear that the country does not have enough engineers and then many engineering professionals from recent graduates to very seasoned employees can't find work.

You want fries with that?

[brentspeak]

31. self-kick

:kick:

[Odin2005]

32. Very tough next few years as the BS is worked out of the system, then rapid rebound from new tech...

...and increasing public pressure forcing though progressive economic policy.