Why is intrade against the public option?

[glen123098]

http://www.intrade.com/ Intrade has the odds of a public option at around 9 percent. Thats pretty bad. What are the reasons for this?

[motorcity]

1. Because the rules state that an opt out or trigger means it expires at 0

Only a public option with out a trigger or opt out will give the value of a contract 100.

[Statistical]

2. Intrade isn't ever before or against anything.

The consensus of betters is that the probability of a true public option without any opt-out or trigger passing before 31 DEC 2009 is about 9%.

Very narrow contract.
If it doesn't pass - you lose
If it passes but doesn't have public option at all - you lose
If it passes and has a public option but after 01 JAN - you lose
If it passes and has a public option but with a trigger - you lose
If it passes and has a public option but with an opt out - you lose

Lots of ways to lose only one very narrow way to "win".

[glen123098]

3. OH ok, that makes me feel better.