Do you favor or oppose creating a government-administered health insurance option that anyone can purchase to compete with private insurance plans?
Favor Oppose Not Sure
All 60 (59) 33 (34) 7 (7)
Dem 86 (84) 10 (11) 4 (5)
Rep 24 (24) 70 (71) 6 (5)
Ind 59 (58) 32 (33) 9 (9)
Northeast 73 (72) 19 (20) 8 (8)
South 47 (46) 47 (48) 6 (6)
Midwest 63 (62) 30 (31) 7 (7)
West 62 (61) 32 (32) 7 (7)
This looks a lot like the previous poll, and there's been little movement since the August polling, other than even strong Dem support, which polled at 81 percent at the end of August. But the movement has stayed within the 2% margin of error.
We included the public option vs. bipartisanship question again, and the numbers still hold, a little stronger than the WaPO/ABC poll where the split was 51-37. Fixing the healthcare system mess with the best possible bill is more important than having a "bipartisan" label stuck on it.
Which of the following scenarios do you prefer? (ROTATED): Getting a health care bill with the choice of a strong public health insurance option to compete with private insurance plans that's supported only by Democrats in Congress, OR Getting a health care bill with no public option that has the support of Democrats and a handful of Republicans?
Option No Option Not Sure
All 54 (52) 38 (39) 8 (9)
Dem 83 (80) 11 (13) 6 (7)
Rep 23 (22) 70 (70) 7 (8)
Ind 49 (47) 41 (42 10 (11)
And here's a good indication of how this vote might reverberate in 2010. Except for the south, every region has at least twice as much intensity on the "less likely to support" if they oppose the public option side.
If a candidate for public office opposed a public health insurance option to compete with private insurance plans, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate or would it have no real effect on your vote?
More Less No Effect
All 21 (22) 38 (36) 41 (42)
Dem 4 (5) 65 (61) 31 (34)
Rep 62 (61) 6 (7) 32 (32)
Ind 14 (16) 34 (32) 52 (52)
Northeast 8 (9) 52 (49) 40 (42)
South 36 (37) 23 (22) 41 (41)
Midwest 17 (18) 42 (40) 41 (42)
West 18 (20) 40 (37) 42 (43)
Look at the Independents again--they are twice as likely to punish a legislator for voting against the public option than reward him or her. And Dems are becoming even more likely to punish. When we say Dems need to worry about having a motivated, energized base working for them in 2010 if they don't pass a strong healthcare reform bill with a public option, we're not just blowing smoke. And it's going to be those Blue Dogs in marginal districts that need to worry about turnout the most.
Voters don't care about bipartisanship, and they do care about making this healthcare reform effort real, by providing competition to the private insurance industry.
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