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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:25 AM
Original message
Possible Credit Dislocation: Be Warned


I have reason to suspect that the "monetary transmission mechanism" is full of rocks (again), and we are about to have another instance of what could colloquially be called "fun." (Yes, that's sarcasm.)

Here's what we know and what I can deduce from it:

* JP Morgan's "cash position" was analyzed by a writer who published on SCRIBD, which showed that actual cash held has deteriorated radically. By more than half in the last year. The deterioration is continuing, not slowing.

* I am hearing repeated anecdotes from multiple areas that foreclosed property held by banks with multiple full-price offers that include a financing requirement are being sold instead to people with actual cash at radical reductions from that price. This implies that these financing contingencies are regarded as not only potentially no good but factually no good, as if the banks know for a fact that the credit pipeline will (not might), within weeks or months (in the time required to close), disappear. There is no other rational explanation for this behavior.

* Citibank's credit-card terms change implies a willingness to accept and even provoke a complete and intentional destruction of their credit card business as a very high probability outcome, given that nobody in their right mind will accept a 30% interest rate who has an alternative. The obvious implication is that only those who can't transfer balances out will remain and if your credit is that impaired there's a good chance you will default - either intentionally or otherwise. This too implies foreknowledge of a near-complete impending freeze in the credit markets.

* The change in terms on credit accounts is NOT confined to Citibank. I have received a fax from a customer of Infibank with substantially identical terms, in which both the standard and penalty rate was adjusted to 29.99%. This strongly implies that whatever Citibank smells the problem is not confined to them.

* Both of these credit card "adjustment" letters are of course marginal rate changes. That is, they are both based off the PRIME rate. The importance of that is missed by many. Don't be one of them (more on that below.)

* I recently received a back channel communication indicating that The Fed is aware that this has been and still is a solvency problem and has so briefed certain members of Congress. This from a source believed reliable, but which cannot be independently confirmed.

This data is not conclusive. But - if you are dependent on credit access and these anecdotes are in fact indicative of actual knowledge of an impending lock-up you are at grave financial risk.

Note that "margin" type rates that are based on the PRIME rate could hurt you far worse than you believe. With PRIME at historic lows should any such dislocation spike the prime rate your interest rate could go much higher with little or no notice or ability to do anything about it.

IF this is going to manifest as a dislocation of some sort it will probably occur within the normal closing window for real estate transactions, since the anecdotes related to that have the best-defined "reach", and the discounts being accepted to avoid this risk are massive to the point of denoting near-certainty of this event in the minds of the market participants who are electing to accept these cash-discounted offers.

Therefore, if you are dependent on such credit access I would take immediate action to do whatever is necessary to mitigate, to the extent you are able, the consequences of such a dislocation.

Consider how you survive returning to what essentially amounts to a cash economic posture in your business and personal life.

Note that the indications above are far stronger than what we saw going into last fall before the wheels came off. As a consequence if these actions are those of people with real knowledge (and this is not a guess on their part) I would expect the outcome to be worse than what we saw last fall in terms of economic impact.

Those who are short dollars (synthetically or in the actual market) need to beware - if I am reading this correctly you're about to get a really ugly surprise.

If you want to speculate on this outcome levered bets on radical dollar appreciation look like one of the best choices out there, followed closely by bearish levered bets on commodities. I would not consider such a speculative play that is not characterized by defined risk, as this analysis is based on nothing more than observation of behavior by market participants that all point toward their foreknowledge of an event that might happen in the reasonably-near future and is not, at present, backed up with actual significant credit-spread widening or other objective criteria.

Disclosure: Initiated a small speculative, defined-risk play LONG the US Dollar (UUP CALL options for March 2010)
Facebook Possible Credit Dislocation: Be Warned

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1539-Possible-Credit-Dislocation-Be-Warned.html
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:32 AM
Response to Original message
1. This is going to be very interesting....
In a chinese curse kind of way.....
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. Hopefully if anything is going to happen
It happens before Bernake is reconfirmed by the Senate.
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. My wife is supposed to get a small inheritance before the first of the year....
I hope the fucking thing doesn't disappear down some financial rat hole....
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:47 AM
Original message
As long as it is in a bank as a deposit
and it is under $250,000 you will get the money, the money might be depreciated but you will get the money none the less.
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:53 AM
Response to Original message
13. It's way less than that, so I guess it'll be OK -
But I get the feeling that this could be worse than anyone can predict.....

I wonder: Could the US of A become insolvent over this?

And if so can we lynch a couple of these fuckers in the streets??

I don't wanna go back to dumpster diving...At my age I can't defend my dumpsters.
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roguevalley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 04:53 PM
Response to Reply #13
40. I will hold the rope, Cliffordu.
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #40
41. You and I could prolly lift enough weight to hangem' by twofers.
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roguevalley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-25-09 12:14 AM
Response to Reply #41
74. BWAHAHA. We can dream. ;)
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femrap Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 12:25 PM
Response to Original message
24. That's what I fear....
the dollar will be devalued but the price of food and necessities will explode. I think I'll go buy some more red wine and toilet paper!

Good bartering materials.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 12:34 PM
Response to Reply #24
27. Most of our farms are owned by a few corporations
If it is more profitable to sell the food overseas than feed the American People...they will do it.
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femrap Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 12:26 AM
Response to Reply #27
53. I have no doubt of that.
It's important to have a garden and learn how to can. My freezer is full and my cupboards are full of canned goods. Also lots of red wine....yum.

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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 05:28 PM
Response to Reply #24
42. could be them ammo stockpilers are on to something.
I'll build a still......
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 12:02 PM
Response to Reply #5
19. The corrupt cons who are trying to destroy...
...this country, had this scheme cooked up and boiling on the burner for years. They relaxed
banking regulations, so the banks could loan to anyone and sell financing that would set people
up to FAIL. Wall Street was deregulated, and was allowed to operate in secret. This has been
going on for years.

In my opinion, they were planning to collapse the entire thing in order to further erode democracy
and control the populations (and of course to enrich themselves). When they realized that Obama
was going to be President, they just started knocking blocks out of the foundation.

Make no mistake, this corrupt system will collapse on Obama's watch--because if everything fails
on Obama's watch--they can regain power. It's the only way they regain power.

No way in hell the bloodsucking neocons are giving up all of the "progress" they made with their
grand PNAC plan. They got their coveted foothold in the Middle East--the most difficult step of
their plan. Anyone think they're just going to walk away? No one in the Bush Administration
has retired.

Look at Cheney. They're just waiting in the wings.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #19
22. Actually
I'm one of those who believe that it isn't and organized conspiracy. Just greed, and greed infects both parties. Remember Larry Summers and Paul Rubin did all they could and succeeded in stopping derivative regulations in the 1990s.
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bertman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 08:13 PM
Response to Reply #22
60. I believe it was Robert Rubin.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 08:27 PM
Response to Reply #60
64. oops
I was thinking of Pee Wee Herman :rofl:
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bertman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 08:54 PM
Response to Reply #64
65. or Pee Wee Volcker, the only one in the administration who thinks Summers and Geithner
are insane. Of course, they put Pee Wee Volcker in a basement office, canned his staff, and turned off his phone. Arrrggghhhh!!!!

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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 09:15 PM
Response to Reply #65
67. Summers and Geithner have played that game before
Ask Brooksly Born.
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xchrom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:33 AM
Response to Original message
2. moves like this are aimed right at the middle class...
'* Citibank's credit-card terms change implies a willingness to accept and even provoke a complete and intentional destruction of their credit card business as a very high probability outcome, given that nobody in their right mind will accept a 30% interest rate who has an alternative. The obvious implication is that only those who can't transfer balances out will remain and if your credit is that impaired there's a good chance you will default - either intentionally or otherwise. This too implies foreknowledge of a near-complete impending freeze in the credit markets.
* The change in terms on credit accounts is NOT confined to Citibank. I have received a fax from a customer of Infibank with substantially identical terms, in which both the standard and penalty rate was adjusted to 29.99%. This strongly implies that whatever Citibank smells the problem is not confined to them.'

these guys can probably be bailed out again -- but so far there has been a real unwillingness to help out those of us out here directly.
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Ardent15 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:35 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. There's still a middle class?
I thought decades of Reaganomics destroyed it.
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juno jones Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:55 AM
Response to Reply #3
15. Good one!
Welcome to DU.
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Craftsman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #3
17. NAFTA signed by Clinton is helping destroy it
Truth is both parties dance to the fiddle of the bankers and global corps.
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Uncle Joe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 08:13 PM
Response to Reply #3
59. No there is still a middle class, but I forgot where he lives. n/t
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. Oh if there is another bailout proposed
I'll be taking to the fucking street. I will get in my car and drive to Washington to stand outside of the capital screaming till I'm arrested.
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xchrom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:43 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. shrug -- i don't blame you -- but lets face it --
they have access to power you and i don't have.

i know many DUERS here think moves like this won't hurt them -- but it will.

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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Many DUers would volunantarily move onto a collective farm
with armed guards if the President told them to.
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. A long as I get to be a member of the Politburo I'm there.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. I was looking for a figurehead mayor role
:shrug:
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:49 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. Welcome, Komrade!!
Vodka at 6 every night. And every morning....
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bertman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 08:16 PM
Response to Reply #4
61. Sorry, Jake, but you won't be able to get there. The capital will be ringed by troops and
SWAT teams prepared for just such a populist uprising. But you could stand by the roadway on I-285 and scream.

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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:53 AM
Response to Original message
12. Some thoughts...
Edited on Fri Oct-23-09 11:56 AM by CoffeeCat
I am no financial expert. I look forward to this thread being a springboard for discussion so we can all better understand
what in the hell is happening--so we can prepare and BE prepared. Kudos to AllentownJake for posting this article!

I have been trying to figure out what is going on with the banks since the bailout. In January, most of the bailout banks
reported "record profits". January was hell the economy. No one was taking out loans, or moving. The housing market
and new construction had tanked. Banks were not lending. So...where in the hell were these "record profits coming from??

Another thing about the banks. They lobbied Congress to allow accounting standards to be changed. Congress obliged and as of
early this year---THE BANKS WERE ALLOWED TO DETERMINE THE VALUE OF THEIR TOXIC ASSETS. This junk is worthless and we all know
it, but the banks were allowed to assign ANY value to this junk. Could that be part of where the record profits are coming
from? Fake profits based on high values of worthless paper?

These banks are not healthy. There's too much that doesn't make sense and there's too much that is secret.

Like what happened with the bailout funds? Did they count the bailout funds as revenue/profit--thereby using that money
to hide that the financial system is in tatters?

I agree with Denninger...the next implosion will be not as easy to hide.

About the credit-card companies. I've said this many times on DU--these companies DO NOT want us holding their cards anymore.
They are doing anything and everything to get us to cancel or default. Ridiculous fees for people who pay off balances...30 percent
interest rates, cutting credit lines to A+ customers, etc. In my opinion, it's more than wanting to close down their credit-card
divisions. They know damn well the economy will collapse, and they want to reduce the number of cards in the hands of people
who are panicked and raiding the Walmart shelves. I'm so glad to see Denninger pointing out that the behavior of the credit-card
companies is not just unfair---IT'S STRATEGIC.

I have some questions. Denninger warns that if you are short dollars, you are in trouble. Is he talking about having actual
cash on hand--out of the banks?

Denninger is also warning those who rely on credit cards, as well, correct?

I imagine that if the next crash is as bad as many suspect--and if there are visible failures of big banks and credit intuitions--that
there could be panic or bank runs. What impact would this have on the dollars in our banks, or the investments in our 401ks?

Again, I hope we can have a robust discussion. We're not going to get one from the media and Denninger has been spot on with his
analysis and forecasts, thus far.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #12
20. I agree with most of Denniger's assesments
1) The banks are insolvent. Under normal conditions and if these were individual cases, the FDIC would have seized most of the big boys. The fact of the matter is the FDIC doesn't have enough money to guarantee all the deposits of the big boys and is actually in the red this year.

2) When you don't have to recognize the losses on your bad investments it is easy to report profits. The banks have been given a free pass to commit accounting fraud by the government in hopes that they would stabilize on their own.

3) The reason he is saying get rid of your dollar shorts is because a run on the banks would actually cause the dollar to appreciate. Translation if you are shorting the dollar as a currency you are about to be wiped out.
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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 07:45 PM
Response to Reply #20
45. So is that why he is saying he is gong LONG on the dollar???
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 07:46 PM
Response to Reply #45
46. Yes
Edited on Fri Oct-23-09 07:47 PM by AllentownJake
He has moved money into dollars in anticipation of a short term liquidity issue. Also the result of a bankruptcy of a too big to fail will result in a market decline and people moving into money market accounts for safety.
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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 08:28 PM
Response to Reply #46
47. Ken Lewis leaving BOA is not happenstance, then, I take it?
Fleeing ahead of the storm?
Ahead of subpoenas?
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 09:36 PM
Response to Reply #47
50. Possibly
Lewis isn't going to be able to avoid the subpoenas. I think the BOD is aware of more of the problems than the general public and forced him out.
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femrap Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #12
23. Am I correct that in the
2005 Bankruptcy Bill there is NO way out of Credit Card debt....just like Student Loans?

Of course, how does a bank get $$ out of a turnip? But the mark on one's credit report will be there forever.

Maybe all of these 'prison camps' that have been built are really 'debtor's prisons?'

I have some cash on hand in case there is a 'bank holiday.' My freezer is full and I have lots of canned goods.

Per halfpasthuman.com forecasts....October 25 is a red letter day for Bad Financials. Next week could be ugly.
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glitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 10:33 AM
Response to Reply #23
54. I don't believe that is true "2005 Bankruptcy Bill there is NO way out of Credit Card debt" nt
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femrap Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 08:25 PM
Response to Reply #54
62. Maybe is was just made more
difficult. But Student Loans follow you for life...unless you can arrange working as a teacher in an underserved area.
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glitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 09:13 PM
Response to Reply #62
66. Yes, I believe it was made more difficult, but not that much more.
People shouldn't be discouraged by the alleged difficulty.
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Bonhomme Richard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:55 AM
Response to Original message
14. Many small business and their employees are going to be going.....
right over the cliff in the very near future.
I started my own business 10 years ago and the suggestion back then was to build it with credit cards because banks do not lend money unless you have the collateral to back it up. I never bought into that thinking and fortunately was able to do it on my own. Today I have a comfortable amount of cash on hand to weather the storm. I can't say as much for a lot of my colleagues. The really shaky businesses have already failed but I do believe that a large majority of small companies are holding on by their fingernails. A few more months of this current economic situation will put them right over the edge and I don't see things changing anytime soon.
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cbayer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 11:58 AM
Response to Original message
16. AllentownJake,
Please be aware that our posting rules require that copyrighted material be limited to three paragraphs with a link to the original source.

Thanks,

cbayer
DU Moderator
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #16
21. Apologies
will do in the future.
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negativenihil Donating Member (772 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
18. Just the other day i got a notice
From HSBC who issued my Best Buy card. Honestly, i don't understand most of it, but it seems like the interest rate is going to be jacked up and variable based on some figures that get published in the WSJ.

I don't have the notice with me, so im sorry for not being more clear.

The other point that stuck out for me was i could "opt-out" of this - which would cancel my card.

The silver lining is i have a $0 balance on the card right now. (i managed to get a real sweet 18month 0% interest rate when i bought my HDTV a little over a year and a half ago and it was paid in full EARLY)

Honestly i am a little freaked out at the moment. I have 2 other cards - a Master Card via HSBC and a Vista through Chase. The Master Card has always been paid on time, and i was planning to(and will) pay off the remaining balance of like $300 with my next non-rent paying pay check, but i did recently notice that my credit limit had been silently reduced to $900 from $1500 (again - no late payments or anything). My real worry however is my Chase card. I've unfortunately had to lean on it quite a bit in the past year or so so it's got a sizable but not insane balance on it (well i guess that's all relative - it has a 5k limit and i owe a bit over 4k. As with my other cards, i've made all my payments on time and most of the time above the min. payment. in any case i know plenty of people who are in far worse trouble with credit cards, but this is my own little hole here we're talking about lol). If Chase sends me a similar notice, i'm going to be pretty screwed.

Bleh, sorry if i rambled.
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starroute Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #18
25. I believe if you opt out you can finish paying at the current rate
So if you can do without using the Chase card in the future, you can have it frozen at the current interest rate and continue making monthly payments at the current interest rate for as long as it takes to pay it down.

At least I'm pretty sure that's how it works. Hopefully someone on this thread can confirm.

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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 12:33 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. Yes
When they change the terms you have an option of paying off your balance till the card expires as those were the original terms in the contract.
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negativenihil Donating Member (772 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #25
29. Well
Luckily enough, Chase has yet to pull this sort of stunt, im just getting overly worked up.

Absolute worst case scenario - i could pay off my chase card in full at the expense of a lot of my savings.

Thank you for pointing out that bit from the opt-out :)

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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 09:33 PM
Response to Reply #25
70. I opted out got a reduced APR twice, one with bank manager witness, the other
agreement in writing and they reneged on both agreements. They call every five minutes and my robot answers.
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Nikki Stone1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 01:07 PM
Response to Original message
28. Jake, thanks for posting this
I am a deadbeat who pays off my credit balance every month. I have no other consumer debt. My car was paid off a couple of years ago and it runs well--low mileage. I have some savings in credit unions. What I am wondering is will the FDIC be able to cover my savings (it is under 250K) if anything should happen?

The freezing up of credit is worrisome for a lot of reasons. Businesses rely on credit and our entire lifestyles (mortgages, car loans, etc.) also rely on easy credit. Does this mean that our entire lifestyle is about to change and only those with cash are ok, or and does this seem to be short or long term?
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 01:13 PM
Response to Reply #28
30. It all depends on government reaction
The FDIC will get you your money. They maybe required to go to congress to get funding, but no one will let the FDIC fail.

I believe that most of the smaller banks are immune from the next part of the disease. As long as the government can declare a bank holiday and protect the smaller banks they should survive.

Our lifestyle should change. Our country did not operate this way from 1930 to the mid 1980s. We will come out stronger as a nation in the long term just like we did in 1930, however our politicians need to stop trying to prop up a failed system.

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Nikki Stone1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 01:22 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. It just amazing how short a time it took for some greedy bastards to topple the system
Creating and maintaining take time and work. Destruction takes seconds, it seems.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. That is the way it always works
Edited on Fri Oct-23-09 01:32 PM by AllentownJake
The people fell asleep for about 30 years. People trusted what was being sold to them by a series of snake oil salesman in both parties.

Where we are, didn't happen overnight. It took 30 years to repeal every vestige of the New Deal they possibly could. W, almost made it a full repeal with his private accounts.

Right now we are treading water, trying to prop up the failure of the past 30 years. It isn't a recovery, it's a cover-up as Gerald Celente likes to say. He's predicting an American Renaissance after the collapse so it is not all doom and gloom. Just hang in there and weather the hurricane.

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Nikki Stone1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 02:01 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. I heard Gerald Celente on Art Bell
He was so right on about so many things. What kind of renaissance does he forsee?
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 02:09 PM
Response to Reply #33
34. A return to values we held
40 years ago. He also is predicting a renaissance in art in the form of physical art and movies and music. A return to the America that values their own community.

At the same time he is predicting Ghost Malls, increased crime, and kidnappings of the wealthy and boss nappings.

Gerald doesn't have a political ideology, actually has a general disdain for politicians but he predicted this crisis almost perfectly. I trust him more than most of the economist out there.
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Nikki Stone1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 02:26 PM
Response to Reply #34
35. The community values thing sounds like Catherine Austin Fitts, whom I also like
I want to be part of something like that.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. Fitts is excellent
Summary of her articles/actions

http://www.scoop.co.nz/features/RealDeal.html
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Nikki Stone1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. Thank you. So often I have wanted to head down to Tennessee and see what she is doing
We're all going to need her advice.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 03:22 PM
Response to Reply #32
38. It's a generational thing.. and it happens with irritating regularity
because the "next" generation always thinks they have come up with a foolproof way to spin gold from straw..
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #38
39. Human Beings have an inate ability
Edited on Fri Oct-23-09 03:31 PM by AllentownJake
To believe that they are better or smarter than human beings who existed before them. Every child thinks they are smarter than their parent and every parent thinks their children are going to end the world (not literally but on the generational thing).

Nations are the same way, we are smarter, more evolved, more civilized, than the Romans, Spanish, English, Germans etc...

As the people who survived the Great Depression as adults died out, the reforms were gradually taken away. You see, because people are different now than they were in 1920.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 07:57 PM
Response to Reply #39
58. People always say: This time it's different

and then the mess that is created is worse than anything previous.
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CountAllVotes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 07:34 PM
Response to Original message
43. kick & recommend
n/t

:kick:

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nc4bo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 07:44 PM
Response to Original message
44. K&R. nt
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WhaTHellsgoingonhere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 08:37 PM
Response to Original message
48. I've been looking for some reading like this. Thanks
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roamer65 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 09:32 PM
Response to Original message
49. The M1 money supply increase is the largest in American history.
Edited on Fri Oct-23-09 09:33 PM by roamer65
I strongly recommend getting out the US dollar right now. Buy gold and silver. They are going to try to print their way out of this crisis.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 09:36 PM
Response to Reply #49
51. They are printing their way out of this crisis
In the case of the Too Big to Fail, they can't print fast enough.
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Nikki Stone1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 08:26 PM
Response to Reply #51
63. Hyperinflation on the way?
:(
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-23-09 10:01 PM
Response to Original message
52. You sure do post a lot of links from that site. Who is "Karl Denninger"?
Edited on Fri Oct-23-09 10:03 PM by ProSense
He isn't linked to on any of the more progressive blogs.

An Open Challenge To The States

I'm stunned.

Washington DC and many of the so-called "drive by" media are trying to play off the "Tea Parties" as some sort of right-wing partisan thing.

They're wrong.

I was one of the first to call for mailing Tea Bags to legislators. Here's the proof:

    Therefore, on February 1st, which is more than enough time for Barack Obama to be seated in his chair in the West Wing, I am recommending an act of peaceful, lawful and yet unmistakable protest.

    That is, to mail President Obama one teabag. Nothing dangerous, nothing illegal - just one teabag.

    Send one to your Congressman and one to each Senator.
Posted on January 20th.

And by the way, I stole it from Tickerforum, where it was suggested.

To those who wish to call me some sort of "right-wing hack" I will simply reply that you have not been reading The Ticker. I have been an equal-opportunity rabid dog with my mighty Internet Pen, calling on the carpet both Democrats and Republicans in their mishandling and outright complicity in this economic mess.

link


It isn't often that DU and Freeperville eat up the same steady diet of bullshit: Possible Credit Dislocation: Be Warned


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Hatchling Donating Member (968 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 11:36 AM
Response to Original message
55. Kick-too late to R. nt
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Nikki Stone1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 11:49 AM
Response to Original message
56. "The ‘Democratization of Credit' Is Over
Here is an interesting addendum to your post:

http://www.counterpunch.org/cooke10132009.html

Another way the G-20 plan is already being enforced is by the restriction of credit for workers and small businesses. A recent Wall Street Journal article was titled, "The ‘Democratization of Credit' Is Over -- Now It's Payback Time." The “democratization of credit” simply means that workers and low-income people had access to credit if they needed it. No more.Credit that was once used to cover end-of-the-month expenses and emergencies will once again be a privilege of the highly paid and wealthy.

Workers must understand that the current effects of the Great Recession are to become the new rules of the “reformed” U.S. economy. The living standards of the past are to stay in the past. Before, U.S. workers took out enormous amounts of debt to in a struggle to defend their standard of living, since wages and benefits were steadily shrinking. The hope was that the economy would improve, and better times would return. The reality is far different.

The U.S. economy is losing its place of total dominance in world affairs. And instead of the U.S. government reacting to this by adding social programs, they are taking them away. Government money will continue to bail out banks when needed while funding trillion-dollar wars.

Once the reality of the above situation can no longer be denied, and U.S. workers recognize these policies as a corporate and government attack on their collective standard of living, they can begin to act.
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Delphinus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 02:24 PM
Response to Original message
57. If I understand correctly,
I should keep my cash instead of using it to pay off debt. Do what I can to mitigate my debt, but keep cash.
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 09:18 PM
Response to Original message
68. Must be because I closed all my accounts and quit paying my credit card.
:evilgrin: Son of a bitches. Old whatsher name was right, just couldn't take their shit any more.
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Me. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 09:30 PM
Response to Original message
69. How About A 79.9% Credit Rate?
“79.9 percent rate targets credit-challenged

OPS_admin | Oct 16, 2009 | Comments 0

credit trap79.9 percent rate targets credit-challenged

Gordon Hageman couldn’t believe the credit card offer he got in the mail.

“My first thought, it was a mistake,” Hageman said.

The wine distributor called the number on the offer, gave them the offer code and verified his information. Sure enough, it was right: the pre-approved credit card came with a 79.9 percent APR.

Yes, 79.9 percent.

The offer is for a Premier card from First Premier Bank, which is based in South Dakota. On its Web site, First Premier says it is the country’s 10th largest issuer of Visa and MasterCard credit cards. The site also says it “focuses on individuals who have less than perfect credit but are actually still creditworthy.”

“I think they’re trying to take advantage of me,” said Hageman.

Ya think?

Hageman acknowleged that his credit isn’t perfect, but he said it’s about average. He said the pre-approved offer didn’t mention the actual interest rate on the card — for that, he had to read the enclosed fine-print disclosure.

“I think you’re beginning to border on deception there,” San Diego State marketing professor Michael Belch said.”

http://www.onepennysheet.com/2009/10/79-9-percent-rate-targets-credit-challenged/

Google page: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&channel=s&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&q=79.9+percent+rate+targets+credit-challenged%2C&btnG=Search&aq=f&oq=&aqi=
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Union Yes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 09:35 PM
Response to Original message
71. We as a nation will regret refusing to nationalize all banking in America.
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earth mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 10:24 PM
Response to Original message
72. We need to stop playing the game by their rules.
They can't stop commerce and they can't stop bartering.

Those fuckers are going to feel it when people won't and can't shop at Walmart anymore for their god damn chinese crap.

I do think we will all win in the end but only if we give those bastards the middle finger and do things on OUR terms.


Time to turn off the t.v.-especially the corporate media whores.

Time to stop buying anything but necessities-food and gas.

Time to start cottage businesses and start bartering with friends and neighbors for things like repairs and haircuts.

Time to grow those veggies and stockpile supplies.



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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-24-09 10:26 PM
Response to Reply #72
73. The wisdom of a mom!
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Nikki Stone1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-25-09 09:49 AM
Response to Reply #72
75. My fear is that they'll outlaw veggie gardens by zoning laws
and outlaw bartering altogether. I heard that bartering was illegal, technically.
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-25-09 11:26 AM
Response to Original message
76. kick
:kick:
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