The Plum Line: GOP In Same Position In Generic Matchup in 2008 as in 2006

[Pirate Smile]

GOP In Same Position In Generic Matchup As In 2008 And 2006

Don’t look now, but by one measure, the GOP is in the same position as it was heading into the 2008 and 2006 elections, both of which resulted in crippling landslide losses for the Republican Party.

If you look at the generic Congressional matchup in the internals of the new Washington Post poll, you’ll see that the Dem advantage over the GOP is virtually identical to what it was heading into the two previous Congressional elections.

Right now, the poll finds that when respondents are asked whether they will vote for a Dem or a GOPer in the 2010 elections, 51% pick the Dem and 39% pick the Republican.

In June of 2008 (the most recent historical data in the WaPo poll), Dems led the generic matchup 52%-37%. And in early November of 2006 the Dem lead was 51%-45%. Today the spread is largely unchanged.

Despite this, GOP cockiness about the midterms is widespread. As GOP Rep John Shadegg put it, speaking about health care: “If they pass this bill, I wouldn’t want to be a Democrat standing for reelection in 2010.”

It’s true that there are plenty of other factors to weigh against the above numbers. Anti-incumbent fervor is running high. The GOP base, while dwindling in size, is fired up, while the Dem base could prove demoralized if Obama and Dems punt on the public option. Other polls have found a much tighter generic matchup.

But the above numbers suggest that whatever travails Dems are suffering may well be partly offset by the utter failure of the GOP to translate Dem difficulties into any real gains. By the above measure, at least, the end-zone dancing by some in the Republican Party seems way premature.

http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/republican-party/gop-in-same-position-in-generic-matchup-as-in-2008-and-2006/

[Arkana]

1. Hahahaha looks like the teabaggers have sandbagged their own party.

Thanks, morons! We couldn't have done it without you!

Also, John Shadegg is a complete tool--he actually thinks a health-care bill will HURT incumbent Democrats. I think I've found a recipe for success--do the EXACT OPPOSITE of what Republicans say to do.

[Hubert Flottz]

2. The GOPer's crackpipe based "reality" ain't selling anymore.

They've been BUSHWhacked!

[damntexdem]

3. Passage of strong health care reform with a viable, accessible PO could ensure this.

Or Congressional Dems could screw it all up.

I guess we'll see.

[RainDog]

4. yes. If Democrats want to control Congress and the executive branch,

they will deliver on health care with something that actually works for the American people, not the insurance industry.

I hope Democrats are able to understand where their long-term interests are located.

If they deliver to the American people over the screams of the Republicans, they will show they deserve to lead. Then they can move on to Wall St. THAT is what the American people want from their govt. Don't give tax money to the rich to squander while jobs are scarce. Not so hard to figure out. It's the economy, stupid, also means health care.