NJ Gov Poll: Christie 40 (-4), Corzine 39 (+4)

[MadBadger]

Race is now a tossup

After trailing by 9 points in our New Jersey Governor poll last month, Jon Corzine has now pulled within one. Chris Christie leads the race with just 40% to 39% for Corzine and 13% for independent candidate Chris Daggett.

Last month the race was 44-35-13 so Christie has seen a four point drop in his support and Corzine has had a corresponding four point gain while Daggett has remained in place.

It was thought that Corzine's only chance at winning was to make voters dislike Christie even more than him, but he actually has seen a gain in his favorability over the last month. While a majority of voters still don't care for him the 37/55 spread is a whole lot better than the 32/60 of a month ago.

For the first time more voters in the state have a negative opinion of Christie than a favorable one. 44% have an unfavorable opinion of him to 42% positive.

Since PPP's first survey of the contest in June Christie's positives have dropped a point and his negatives have risen by 11. Corzine's favorables have gained a point and his negatives have dropped one.

Corzine's gain since last month's poll is the results of two key trends: a consolidation of his support among Democrats and Christie losing some Republican and independent voters to Daggett.

Last month Corzine was getting 64% of the Democratic vote while Daggett was at 15%. Now Corzine's at 70% and Daggett's at just 10%, an indication that some Democrats who might have considered casting a 'spoiler' ballot for Daggett are now just sticking with the party.

More:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/toss-up-in-new-jersey.html

[Pirate Smile]

1. The momentum sure looks good.

[tabbycat31]

2. some polls have Corzine ahead

every poll I've seen is different.

the X factor here is Chris Dagget, the independent who seems to draw more Christie voters than Corzine voters. I'm keeping my fingers crossed and working hard to keep Jersey blue.