China's electric car revolution

[ensho]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/KJ09Cb01.html


With 17 of every 1,000 people in China owning a car in 2008, compared with a global average of 120 per 1,000 persons, the country is already the second-largest auto market in the world. It is expected to exceed the United States to become the largest auto market by 2030. While this astounding growth is great news for the auto industry, it is disastrous for the world's most populated country.

China is running up against environmental resource constraints and an increasing dependence on foreign oil from Africa, Russia, and the Middle East. The country is already the top emitter of carbon dioxide and experiences widespread air pollution in urban centers.

The good news is that the Chinese government is not only aware of the problems posed by the prospect of fast-increasing numbers of cars on the road, but is also working to address the issue. Many major urban centers are building efficient public infrastructure and urban housing to incentivize people to get out of cars, and China has maintained heavy taxes on vehicle registration, driver's licenses, and car sales to limit the cars on the road. Nonetheless, the exponential growth curve that represents China's passenger vehicle registrations points to the fact these measures will not be able to stop the Chinese consumer.

and an increasing dependence on foreign oil from Africa, Russia, and the Middle East. The country is already the top emitter of carbon dioxide and experiences widespread air pollution in urban centers.

The good news is that the Chinese government is not only aware of the problems posed by the prospect of fast-increasing numbers of cars on the road, but is also working to address the issue. Many major urban centers are building efficient public infrastructure and urban housing to incentivize people to get out of cars, and China has maintained heavy taxes on vehicle registration, driver's licenses, and car sales to limit the cars on the road. Nonetheless, the exponential growth curve that represents China's passenger vehicle registrations points to the fact these measures will not be able to stop the Chinese consumer.

-long snip-

As Chinese domestic automakers find innovative ways to produce cheap electric cars to fulfill the demand of China's domestic market, they will be able to use this technology to expand internationally. A new generation of Chinese electric cars may help drive down the production cost of electric cars globally.

In doing so, electric cars may become the car of choice not only in China, as the fastest growing car market in the world, but also in the United States, the largest car market.
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[Romulox]

1. China is also the top producer of low grade coal in the world, IIRC...nt

[Statistical]

3. Electricity from the dirtiest coal has less CO2 emissions than internal combustion engine.

High efficiency power plants can be up to 60% efficient.
EV are about 95% efficient battery to wheel.

So a "coal powered" EV is somewhere around 50%-57% efficient coal -> wheels.
Internal Combustion Engines are <15% tank(gas) -> wheels.

When you burn a gallon of gasoline 85%+ becomes waste heat and 15% actually moves the vehicle.
This is an imbalance that gasoline powered cars can never overcome.

Dirties coal still far cleaner than gasoline due to the inefficiencies of small internal combustion engines.

[Romulox]

4. Those figures seem to leave out several factors:

To whit: the efficiency of the delivery system (including required infrastructure upgrades,) the relative efficiency of manufacturing electric vehicles vs. manufacturing internal combustion vehicles, the need for replacement of batteries during the normal lifespan of the vehicle, etc.

[Warpy]

2. Some of their electric cars look really neat

They're two or three seaters, great for the urban one child family, small, and spiffy. They're great urban transportation that keeps folks out of the rain, unlike the bicycles they're replacing.

Best of all, they don't belch hydrocarbons.

China's real problem is coal. Most households use compressed blocks of coal dust for heating and cooking. It's cheap but it keeps the air absolutely filthy in winter. It approaches being unbreathable in big northern cities like Beijing.

China is, however, already ahead of us in developing renewable energy technology. If we're not careful, they'll achieve independence and join the rest of the world in leaving us sitting in a sticky patch of black goo nobody wants.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

5. When I traveled to Beijing in the past

and that was over ten years ago, the air was incredibly polluted. It was dark in midday with a thick black cloud seemingly stuck overhead. I don't know if Beijing is situated in some kind of basin where air gets trapped, but it was pretty bad. There were lots and lots of cars back then, but with even more bicycles. I hate to think of what would happen if all those bicycle riders suddenly began driving cars. The streets were already difficult to drive as it was.