Rep Mike Castle (DE) to announce his next move at noon today (this could be huge!)

[LynneSin]

Mike Castle is the only republican that can win statewide races in Delaware - he's already served 2 terms as the governor and 9 terms as our lone member of the house. And he usually wins with 10points per race.

There was an unwritten rule in DE that Castle, Carper and Biden would never run or campaign against each other but since Biden is now VP we have an open seat for senate with the special election in 2010. (Current occupant Ted Kaufman said he never had any intentions other than holding the seat until the special elections happened).

Castle has his first strong competition in 9 elections with former Lt. Gov Carney running for the US House. And polls have constantly shown Castle easily defeating Joe Biden's kid Beau - mainly because many folks don't think Beau has had enough experience with only 2 years as our state AG and one of them he spent overseas in Iraq on National Guard duties.

The worst that could happen with Castle, other than a Republican pick-up, is that the republicans are stuck with another pro-choice, pro-environment republican in their midst - Castle is alot like Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe and Arlen Specter. But it would be a republican pick-up - that's for sure.

http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20091006/NEWS/91006015&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL

[ccharles000]

1. k/r

[Captain Hilts]

2. All politicians are moderates in DE. It would be a great place for the first primary for either

party. It is agricultural, rural, white, black, poor, rich, etc.

Everybody has a chance to meet their elected reps, so if one's an ass, word gets out really quickly.

[LynneSin]

3. Getting elected can be a lifetime position

I mean it's not like there is any competition for Castle in the primaries. Sure, maybe that fundie nut job that ran against Biden might try again but heck, she lost by 30pts to Biden last election and Biden didn't even bother to campaign for his senate seat.

Anyone in Delaware can tell you it's not easy for an upstart candidate to get a chance in this state and especially with the democratic party. We could lose a seat here in Delaware but at least it's not an uberly vile repubican. I've had Santorum, I could tolerate Castle.

And any chance of getting rid of Carper, who has been one of the problems with the democrats when it comes to healthcare - that will pretty much be shot. Democratic party ain't going to mess with an easy win that will cost little money to get re-elected.

[Captain Hilts]

5. My firm did a lot of polling in DE, and it always rates high for general satisfaction

for how things are going in the state.

Carper even survived the weird murder relating to his aide, perhaps because enough folks had met him.

Yes, a LOT of stability. Once you're in, you're in. Even Roth, despite the WORST hair in the senate.

[KharmaTrain]

4. Can He Make It Out Of A Primary

If he's stuck with having to battle a Club For Growther, he may not see the General. If this is a closed primary and with the current status of the remnants of the rushpublican party, there's no room nor tolerance with anyone to the left of Atilla the Hun.

[WI_DEM]

6. Yes, he's won primaries state wide for his house seats.

[LynneSin]

9. Against whom?

Christine O'Donnell? She couldn't win a republican primary against another no-name and tried a write-in against Carper 6 years ago. She also ran against Biden and lost by 30 points to a man who didn't bother doing 1 minute of campaigning in his own state.

There are no other republicans and this is delaware, we have fundie nut-jobs but not overwhelmed by them. And republicans know that any other republican candidate will lose big time (well at least the Del Repubs know this which is why they won't put up a primary fight).

If Castle runs this is the republican party best chance for a pickup in the 2010 election.

[KharmaTrain]

13. Best Chances Aren't What The GOOP Is About...

If that was the case, Arlen would still be a GOOPer. The far right is more than willing to split the party to hurt a moderate.

My question pertained strictly to the primaries...and if a moderate stood a chance of making it to the general. I'm watching a so-called "moderate" here in Illinois, Mark Kirk, pandering to the far right to get the Senate bid...then I'm certain he'll play moderate in the general, but his pandering to the right is sure to come back and haunt him.

From what I've read, Beau Biden appears to have the inside track on his father's seat...both in polling and in money/organization. While Castle stands the best chance to grab the seat, but if he doesn't pass the "purity" test, he may never get the chance to take on Biden.

Cheers...

[kristopher]

15. Not overwhelmed by them???

You must live in a different Delaware. Sussex is solid fundie whackjob and Kent is only a little less so; or did you forget that the video of them assailing Castle at his meeting on healthcare was the one that started the media frenzy on the topic.

[LynneSin]

16. Well luckily I"m up North and we'll keep the state blue

but I know what you mean.

:cry:

[kristopher]

11. The righties hate Castle.

Any analysis that doesn't factor in a third party candidate is likely going to miss the mark. The right wants a hard core wingnut.

[KharmaTrain]

14. A Party Truly Divided and Still In Denial...

I expect we'll see a strong third party showing in the NJ Governor's race, and many polls and pundits appear to be ingoring that factor. I've long predicted the rushpublicans are headed for a major schism...those who know the only way to win elections is to moderate vs the "True Believers". Right now the far right controls the agenda, but sooner rather than later, the party bosses who rely on winning elections to keep their jobs aren't going to tolerate constantly canabalizing their best chances to win. When the "regulars" try to retake their party, watch the fireworks.

[WI_DEM]

7. I don't care if he's a pro-choice, pro environment republican with no influence in his party

his election would mean that the nutty right who control the GOP would be stronger in the senate, so I hope he loses if he runs. If he really wants to accomplish something, however, he could become a democrat and run.

[NYC Democrat]

8. well there goes that seat I don't really see a way someone as popular as Castle can lose

don't get me wrong it won't be a blow out hell I doubt it will even more then 4% but I am nearly sure we lose that seat now.

[LynneSin]

10. I always thought it had to do with the fact that his last name is Castle and the largest county...

in Delaware is New Castle. (also the most populous but a blue county).

But Castle is like everyone's grandfather - everyone has a nice Castle story. Hell he grocery shops the same place I do and I've met him - he's really nice. He even posed in the picture I have with Carper and Kaufman.

The thing is this Castle is not only the best chance for the republicans but he's awfully chummy with the democrats too.

He should run as a democrat. I even said that to him in from of Carper and Kaufman (who had a good chuckle and agreed when I said it to Castle).

[kristopher]

12. I think we need to wait and see who the Dems field.

I don't think Castle is a shoo in at all since the right hates him and will probably split for an independent fundie.

[kristopher]

17. One more point about this...

Do you think we can expect to see tiny Delaware get a couple of Presidential visits campaigning for the Dem (who will possibly be the son of the VP)?

What effect do you think that might have?