I see only 3 possible outcomes to Heath Care Reform ( ok, Health Insurance Reform)

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

1. Pass a crappy bill that does not have a public option and has no mechanism to drive down costs, does not negotiate drug prices and is mandatory. Also allows higher co-pays for individuals.

Result - people with halfway decent health coverage now provided by their employers will be furious when they discover that their out-of-pocket costs will increase thanks to "reform". Anger all around from those guys plus the people who resent being mandated to buy something from a private for profit sector that they may or may not be able to afford.

Democrats blamed for all the obvious flaws in the bill and get spanked in next elections as the Republicans make hay all day long with why they couldn't vote for such a stupid and corrupt bill.
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2. Pass no bill.

Result - Every Democrat and independent in the entire country who voted for Democrats with a mandate to FIX THE SYSTEM will be totally disgusted. More deaths, more bankruptcies.

Democrats blamed as they have the Presidency, House and Senate and have proved they are completely feckless. Disillusioned Dems stay home in disgust and Repubs flourish at polls. Horrible side effect - Teabaggers will consider this a gigantic victory for their methods of bigotry, ignorance and intimidation and more people will join their insane coterie.

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3. Pass a good bill with a public option, allow people to CHOOSE whether to stay with what they have or move to the PO, cap co-pays, remove all unethical policies like rescission, prior conditions, etc.(effective immediately), negotiate drug prices, and find a way to make insurance affordable and not eat up 15-20% or even higher of gross income.

Result - Big victory for Dems, Repubs look like recalcitrant morans, Happy Dems and independents go to polls to reelect or elect even more Dems to maintain or grow majorities

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[rucky]

1. Republicans will suffer, too, if #2 happens.

Incumbents in both parties won't be safe.

[paulk]

2. if we have to settle for insurance reform

then, with the majorities we have in Congress, #3 should be the outcome.

Anything less will be a failure of leadership, both in the White House and in the Congress...

[NYC_SKP]

3. My crystal ball sez:

We will pass a decent bill with a public option, however the PO won't be as widely available as we'd like.

Providing coverage to few, only the worst cases and most poverty striken, will doom the public option because it will be used mostly by people who qualify for subsidies. How can a public service be competitive if it doesn't take more of the mainstream population and is mostly subsidized policies??? :shrug:

I think the various progressive caucuses, with the President's tacit support, will push for making the PO more widely available.

There will be an unworkable mandate, and this will bring more business to private insurers, good for them. :eyes:

Private insurers, however, will have to play by new rules. If these are well enforced, they will offset some of the new profit they're seeing from having new mandated clients.

So, an exchange will be created with PO available to few at first but designed to grow to become more widely available.

And the Private insurers will have to change their practices but will write more policies and remain profitable.

[Tim01]

4. I think we will see #1, unfortunately. nt

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

5. It's looking that way. The Dems pass the Lemming Health Insurance Reform Act of 2009

and take us all collectively over the cliff.

We can STILL be saved IMO by the Progressive House caucus if they stick to their guns about a real public option.