Is the stock price of the Health Ins. Co.'s a good indicator of where things are going?.....

[Postman]

Republican politician W says - "There will be NO Public Option"
Democratic politician X says - "There WILL be a Public Option"
Republican politician Y says - "There WILL be a Public Option"
Democratic politician Z says - "There will be NO Public Option"

Is it better to look at the stocks of these companies to see what's really going on?

What do yo think?

[napi21]

1. I suspect it would be. Those cos are going to be fine, but they

will never make the kind of money they did in the past. Stockholders know that.

[Oregone]

4. Then why are stocks going up?

If reform wasn't predicted to pass, it would follow their trends would be constant. If the reform was going to hurt them, I would think people would be selling off tons of stock. But, neither seems to be the case.

[rucky]

2. UNH is one point off its 52-week high.

And it looks like prices are only reacting to quarterlies.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:UNH

[Odin2005]

3. It's delusional speculative behavior by corporatists, nothing more.

[Statistical]

5. Yup. HMO Index is up 55% since april. Gives a good idea of what the market thinks of the "reforms"

Markets have very good ability to reflect the collective opinion of millions of people.
The HMO index has rebounded sharply off the lows.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXAMEX%3AHMO.X

HMO index (which is weighted average of major players) is up 55% since April.
It has fallen almost 1/3rd when talk of real public option was circulating.

[KharmaTrain]

6. Market Is Too Short-Term...

These days the market moves on day-to-day earnings and prospects. While rumors can give a sector the "jitters"...quick rises and drops...there's little indication from what I see that shows the healthcare industry betting one way or another on what the final legislation will be.

The dirty secret is the public option will be a long-term winner for the insurance companies and their stockholders as they will be able to cherry-pick the best "risks" and let those who aren't go into the public system. There also will be a large market in umbrella coverage...or coverage for services above and beyond what the government will cover. And then there will be those who want the "cadillac" policies...just like sending their kids to private schools, it's for those who don't trust or want to be part of the government program and can afford to self-insure. Even removing employee control would be a benefit as premium will continue to be paid regardless of where a person works. The reason these companies fear the government is that they won't be able to make the 30% profits they do now...but they still will make profits.