The forgotten senior swing voters

[JDPriestly]

Those of you who support Obama and think that the Republicans' prediction of a victory for their side in 2010 is a joke, watch out. Remember how Rove laughed at Democrats' claims that we would win in 2008. We had a secret weapon: young, first-time voters. Well, for 2010 and 2012, the Republicans have the secret weapon: working class people over 65 who switched to vote for Obama in 2008 and about whom he seems to have forgotten.

There is a lot of talk about the unemployed in our economy. Clearly, the economic downturn has hit them the hardest.

But older people whose primary income is Social Security but who normally derive a little supplemental income from investments or savings are also suffering. The extra interest income they used to get wasn't much, maybe only a few thousand dollars a year. But it made a huge difference in the quality of these seniors' lives, in their ability to put something in the collection plate at church, buy medications and give Christmas gifts to their loved ones. Lower interest rates and the decline in the stock market since Obama took office mean that they no longer have that discretionary money.

These folks don't qualify for private or government pensions. They may have a small amount of money in a 401(K), but they never earned enough to save much. Because they have very little income, they generally can't borrow money.

They don't look like the retirees you see in the ads on TV. They probably don't play golf or visit resorts. If they go out to eat, it is to cheap, chain restaurants. If they have cable, it's probably only a few stations. They lead quiet, frugal lives.

I talked to a lot of folks like these when I canvassed for Obama last year in the suburbs of a primarily Catholic city in the Midwest. I remember one woman who said she had not decided who she was going to vote for. She explained that she was choosing between the babies (abortion) and her Social Security check.

If she voted for Obama, she may be regretting it. No matter how many optimistic statements Bernanke and Obama issue on recovery, seniors have already been informed that they will receive no COLA increases in their checks for at least another two years. With rising Medicare costs, that means a decrease in the net income for this group.

This is the segment of the population that is the most bitter about the economy. Hope of an upturn and new jobs a couple of years from now cannot help them. They won't be looking for new jobs or earning money to save ever again. They are hurting now.

The promised improvements in the economy will be too little and too late for these retirees. The tea-baggers that we see at town halls look a bit more prosperous and self-confident than the kinds of people I am talking about. But it is to the less prosperous and confident seniors that the TV broadcasts of angry tea-baggers are directed.

These are the former Reagan Democrats. Their anger caused them to switch back to vote Democratic in 2008, but they weren't voting on the issues that moved Obama's younger voters. The people I am writing about always vote. The Republicans know why they switched to vote for Obama in 2008 and how to get them back. The Tea-Bagger strategy may seem silly to a lot of DUers. But its aim is clear and steady and, so far, it looks sure to reach its target.

The seniors I am writing about do not post on DU. I am speaking for them. So far, Obama's version of change is hurting, not helping, them. I hope that Obama and his aides do not underestimate the importance of these voters. Thus far, Obama has not reached out to them at all.

[katmondoo]

1. Are the seniors forgetting who gave them the horrenous

Medicare part D. Are they forgetting who gave them Social Security, who gave them Medicare to begin with. How and where would most of them be surviving without the Democrats.

[JDPriestly]

6. They watch TV. We all forget.

Obama and we should not take these votes for granted. Obama looked like he was going to save the situation. It's about expectations, not just reality. Everything is. So far, Obama and Bernanke are bragging about the low interest rates, forgetting that many Americans are hurting precisely because of those low rates.

[redqueen]

2. How is Obama's version of change hurting them?

I hope you're not referring to the lack of a COLA for SS payments, since that was done by Bush.

[JDPriestly]

7. Even I don't blame Bush for that. The lack of COLAs is Obama's responsibility now.

[redqueen]

9. So you're joining in with the right on that talking point, then.

Thanks, good to know.

[JDPriestly]

10. I'm pointing out a reality. At 66, I know what I see and hear on the streets.

We get calls every day from people anywhere from 50-up who have no hope. I'm a life-long Democrat who is really starting to doubt Obama. He says one thing and then his aides suggest another.

My point about the low interest rates isn't Republican or Democratic. It's the reality. Combined with no COLAs and rising prices on the items that seniors have to buy including supplemental Medicare insurance, there is a lot of anger. When you see the Tea-Baggers, think about this post. I'm writing about the people who identify with the Tea-Baggers. Obviously I would not be on DU for years and years, and I would not have walked precincts for Obama if I were a Republican or sided with them. Please look at the reality.

[redqueen]

12. What do you want people to do?

Go to their homes and try to talk sense into them?

Do you think they'd believe the truth?

You yourself just denied the reality that the COLA issue was decided before Obama took office... and somehow we're supposed to get somewhere with them?
:wtf:

I'd love to hear your suggestions.

[JDPriestly]

21. Obama could, for example, on the COLA issue get his friends in Congress

to investigate how the way that basket is set up, the way the COLAs are figured, affect older people. That would be a starting point. Maybe regulations or laws need to be more responsive to economic changes that affect seniors.

[rox63]

3. It was already known that there would be no COLA increases before Obama was elected

This one is from the Idiot Son's legacy, not Obama.

[SoCalDem]

4. Naughty teenager finds Mom's credit card..maxxes it out..

(Bush)

Bills arrive and must be paid

(Obama)

[JDPriestly]

8. Obama is doing a lot for young people.

The whole insurance reform is presented as something for people who are not on Medicare. Obama is not addressing the concerns of older people. He needs to. You can avoid what I am saying all you want. But this is the group that could make the difference in the coming election.

They have lost at every turn. And none of Obama's plans promise to help them.

[krabigirl]

11. Well, many of these same older people are the ones against gay marriage, choice, and freedom from

religion. Frankly, while I care for the elderly, I don't care for many of their views. And they are hopelessly misguided if they think a Republican will help them at all.

[JDPriestly]

20. That's what I pointed out in the OP.

One woman told me she was choosing between the "babies" meaning her slant on social issues like choice, gay marriage, etc. and her economic interest.

There is a good chance that she ended up voting her economic interest. Obama needs to make sure she knows that she made a good choice. So far, he has not done that. The Lilly Ledbetter Act and SCHIP are irrelevant to the voters I am talking about. Yet, those seem to be Obama's most important accomplishments thus far.

Lilly Ledbetter and SCHIP are great talking points for people under 40, but not for the older voters.

[SoCalDem]

13. "I" am not "avoiding" it, at all

Life is "fluid"..things change

Older folks (like me) tend to not like things to change, but we cannot stop it from changing.

Young people need JOBS, if we "old folks" expect them to keep paying INTO Social security & medicare.... true health care reform will enable THEM to work and to live, so WE can keep on going too:)

We are ALL connected in the mess..


Obama is not Superman.. Everything cannot be "done" all at once, and there is an order of degree in play here too. Everything that's leftover from Bush, has to be attended to. Obama did not start with a clean slate and an open field.

I'm sure he's doing the best he can, and we'll all have to hold on tight and hope for the best.

Whatever happens, I'm sure it's a lot better than what would have happened if McCain was in office

[JDPriestly]

19. No doubt it is better than what would have happened at McCain won.

But Obama needs to explain to seniors what he is doing for them, how he is helping them. The one thing I can see is that he saved the banks -- and the money these particular seniors may have in the banks. I don't think Obama has talked to seniors about what that means to them.

The eldest seniors are comparing Obama to their memories of FDR, and Obama is losing with these workikng class people.

[Winterblues]

14. So Obama can give hundreds of billions to the bankers and brokers but can not

keep COLA for Social Security.. I think someone's priorities are pretty messed up if that ends up being the case. while i would never ever vote Republican, I am having a hard time finding a reason to vote Democratic. I happen to be one of those Seniors the Op is about.

[LiberalAndProud]

16. Please,

You are welcome to snark all you want, but please understand what you are snarking about. There is a COLA formula. It's the law. It hasn't changed since 1973.

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/index.html
Several important parameters affect Social Security's Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program. We determine these parameters each October by following formulas set by law. Two important parameters are the national average wage index and the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). COLAs and wage-indexed amounts for recent years are summarized in a table. The table's column headings provide links to more detailed data.

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/latestCOLA.html
What is a COLA?
Legislation enacted in 1973 provides for automatic cost-of-living adjustments, or COLAs. With COLAs, Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits keep pace with inflation.

Latest COLA
The latest COLA is 5.8 percent for Social Security benefits and SSI payments. Social Security benefits will increase by 5.8 percent beginning with the December 2008 benefits, which are payable in January 2009. Federal SSI payment levels will also increase by 5.8 percent effective for payments made for January 2009. Because the normal SSI payment date is the first of the month and January 1 is a holiday, the SSI payments for January are always made at the end of the previous December.

[JDPriestly]

18. Obama needs to request a change in the formula upon which COLAs are

figured. The basket they use reflects the cost of a lot of stuff older people don't buy. Many older people do not have cell phones or computers, for example. The people I am writing about do not buy new cars.

The problem is that the people I am writing about have lost a relatively big chunk of their income because of the decrease in interest rates. Many of them lost money when the stock market fell. The amounts they lost were probably insignificant when compared to the salaries of traders on Wall Street, but extremely significant to the people who lost that money.

The bail outs for Wall Street and the huge bonuses to Wall Street traders have made the people I am writing about very, very angry because they see themselves as the victims of very serious injustice that no one has addressed. Losing your home at the age of 40 is one thing. But losing it at the age of 68 is quite another. Hopefully not many 68-year-olds have lost their homes, but for those who have, it is too late to start over. And for those who haven't lost their homes yet, that possibility is very frightening.

Obama has responded to the justified anger of these people with a call for calm and reason. That is the wrong response. Obama needs to respond with emotion and show understanding at the very least. Claims that the economy is getting better do not ring true to a man or woman in the mid-50s who has been out of work maybe for a couple of years, much less to retirees over 65 who can no longer work.

Obama's approach may have made a lot of sense to economists, and it may have been forced on him by Bush. But, if he is thinking about them at all, he needs to speak directly to older people and explain why his policies are helping them. Older people are very patient, but need to know where Obama is going on their issues. I've named a few of those issues.

Obama spoke to AARP audiences early on about health care reform. He was great in so far as I was concerned. But he seemed very bemused by some of the questions. Some of them probably did seem pretty silly to him, but the fact is they that didn't seem silly to a lot of seniors. And frankly, even though Obama's answers were good, at points his amusement may have felt like condescension to a lot of older Americans. Remember, there are a lot of people out there (myself included at moments) who are totally befuddled by the speed and complexity of the computer age. From the beginning of his campaign, Obama focused on the technologically savvy. He may not have intended to ignore the older generation, but that was the effect in many instances.

My comments are intended to alert Democrats to a forgotten group of voters. It's reality. It's a reality that a lot of younger people know nothing about. For those of you under 40, aside from your grandparents (or parents) and the people you deal with at work, how many people who are over 55 and live primarily on Social Security do you know? When did you talk to any of these people about how they feel about what is going on right now? I suggest you do that. And don't pick people who attend your local Democratic Club meetings or take Democratic stances at town halls and demonstrations. Pick people at random. You may be surprised at what you hear.

[asjr]

5. I am a senior on SS only. Obama has not

forsaken me--I will not forsake him. If you remember our country started going downhill a few years ago. Obama can't change anything overnight. I know many seniors like me. Don't throw me in with a bunch of naysayers that just enjoy the sound of their voices.

[LiberalAndProud]

15. The COLA freeze happened under Bush, I believe.

Obama has done nothing to harm our senior population, nor is he trying to. And he isn't ignoring them either.

Most of us have been held on a COLA freeze for a long time now. In fact, hourly wages have declined in relation to our cost of living. Bush did what he could to destroy both Social Security and Medicare. He may have dealt the mortal blow to Medicare with his Part D crap. That will be his legacy.

Independent seniors need to remember the damage the Republican agenda has done and will do on behalf of the interest of seniors. Because they truly believe you are entitled to retire on only what you have been able to earn and save over your "productive" years. Wall Street has no compunction over stealing their life savings either. And the Republicans are fine with regulating that industry less and less.

[JDPriestly]

17. In this last post, LiberalandProud, you suggest the very points

that Obama should be making. The problem is that he has not bothered to really speak to seniors much. He needs to.

Also, as for the COLA formula, it is based on a basket, and that basket does not contain what seniors buy. It contains what younger people buy. That is why the COLA formula should be set aside and the COLA should instead be based on the cost of seniors' needs.

Unemployment benefits were extended -- which benefited young people. Banks were saved from bankruptcy which benefited both young and old, but mostly old. Obama has not pointed the things he has done for seniors very effectively.

Also, jobs for young people should be an extremely big priority right now.