Iran's Nuclear Program is in Shambles. Talk of Bomb just PR

[illinoisprogressive]

Nuclear plans in chaos as Iran leader flounders


Boasts of a nuclear programme are just propaganda, say insiders, but the PR could be enough to provoke Israel into war

Peter Beaumont, foreign affairs editor
Sunday January 28, 2007
The Observer

Iran's efforts to produce highly enriched uranium, the material used to make nuclear bombs, are in chaos and the country is still years from mastering the required technology.

Iran's uranium enrichment programme has been plagued by constant technical problems, lack of access to outside technology and knowhow, and a failure to master the complex production-engineering processes involved. The country denies developing weapons, saying its pursuit of uranium enrichment is for energy purposes.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2000303,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=12

[StrictlyRockers]

1. K&R because it's the truth.

[bdrube]

2. Wouldn't surprise me. Have Bush, Dick & co. been right yet? n/t

[mmonk]

3. But, but......I thought if we heard the truth

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x60840

[slipslidingaway]

42. Thanks

:yourock:

[yurbud]

4. Iran would not be a threat to us EVEN IF they had nukes--we have 10,000 warheads

no country in history has undertaken a military action that has 100% chance of provoking an extermination level response.

[mmonk]

5. That's the dirty little secret politicians

and their sugar daddy interests don't want the public to know or rationally think about.

[Gwerlain]

31. Absolutely correct.

And the previous follow-on comment about the politicians, particularly our Imperious Fuhrer... errrmmm, pResident, who is counting on the irrational responses to "nucular weapons of mass distraction" from BOTH sides to bolster his case.

Make no mistake: a nuclear weapon in the hands of Iran is a CITY-level threat, but the US is not a city, it is a country, and our doctrine on the response to the use of a nuclear weapon against us in war or peace is clear, unmistakable, and petrifyingly frightening. No country that could ever possibly be identified as being involved could ever take the risk. No one is that insane; you'd have to be batshit. In the event that a nuclear weapon is used against US citizens, any time, anywhere, and the perpetrator can be identified as a country, Shrub doesn't have to declare anything, he needs no authorization, he needs no permission, he can LAUNCH A NUCLEAR ATTACK AT WILL WITHOUT WARNING AND WITHOUT FURTHER CONSULTATION. Understand? You think he'd hesitate for a SECOND? Think about it. Speaking of batshit.

This is not and never will be a threat, at least not for decades to come.

[yurbud]

36. How did they sell that hat full of shit to people old enough to remember the Cold War?

[Gwerlain]

39. Ever see...

The China Syndrome? People will believe anything.

[Pandrmn]

6. Would you be willing to be your life on this?

[blonndee]

7. blah blah blah mushroom cloud WMDs terra terra terra blah blah blah

GO WAR! Right?

[Pandrmn]

8. Were both fingers in the ears at the same time?

[blonndee]

9. That's my question to you

Glad you're able to comprehend it after all the Kool-Aid you've drank. Too bad so many cowardly freeper types honestly believe this kind of shit. How many so-called "patriots" are just brown-shirted wannabes who are scared shitless while the actual brave patriots of this country aren't afraid to stand up for what's right and think for themselves.

Good thing you're not one of those cowardly freeper types, right? :rofl:

[roguevalley]

10. some time back the experts in the commission that monitors

nuclear technology worldwide -I can't remember the exact name ... IAE??? - said they could make nice glow in the dark watches with what they have done so far. the Iyatollahs are pissed at their current leadership for making such a mess of the country. Imagine what we could have prevented if we had half their sense.

[blonndee]

13. "glow in the dark watches"

Dang, I'd like to have one of those...like I had when I was 8 years old! :rofl:

Still, I'm not discounting the possibility that a threat could emerge, only that it's the same old same old bullshit AND that It Doesn't Have To Be This Way.

SOME presidents were intelligent and savvy enough to understand the concept of diplomacy. But SOME presidents are so fucking ignorant, stupid, and arrogant that they think they have the right and the means to dictate to the rest of the world the way Things Should Be. Which, ironically, only endangers us more, which our friend on this thread could never possibly begin to understand.

[Pandrmn]

15. Can't remember - I bet that happens alot. See post #12.

[blonndee]

17. HAHAHAH!!!

you don't even understand what you're replying to. Oh my god, this is hilarious.

[Pandrmn]

22. Are you a real Blondie?

[blonndee]

23. Are you a real Idiot?

[alittlelark]

44. Are you a real male from FL?

What is your purpose here?

[Pandrmn]

45. Yes, debate. Are you a real female from California?

[alittlelark]

46. As REAL as it gets - w/ a full profile.

[Pandrmn]

47. How far from the coast is Los Altos?

Elevation?

[alittlelark]

48. 200 some feet elevation- we're in Los Altos Hills.

How far from the coast.... Google it.

[Pandrmn]

49. I did, long way from the surf. I will bet it is beautifull! Nothing here higher

than a sand dune - makes one appreciate the mountains. (Beautifull beaches - only white quartz sand beaches in the world). Is that wine country?

[Morereason]

51. Yes, and they just KICKED OUT THOSE OBSERVERS!!!

Sure there is propaganda and this whole thing is Bush's fault (it escalated with his "Axis of Evil" and agression), but this move concerns me.

[Pandrmn]

12. Wrong! Question was dippy: would you bet your life....what is with all

the insult and freeper baiting? You seem to be very familiar with cowards?:bounce: :hi:

[blonndee]

14. You know freepers, then? And cowards?

You know they're one and the same, right? :rofl

edited to add: I agree, question was dippy AND therefore very freeperesque. Very "moranic."

[Pandrmn]

21. Profound dippy! So what you are saying is that those men and women

serving in our armed forces that may be freepers are cowards? News flash to them! Talk about moran! Guess you owe your gratitude to a bunch of freeping cowards. Something tells me that you are not welcome.:bounce: :bounce: :wtf: :puke: :dem:

[blonndee]

24. Yeah, my army boyfriend agrees with me

and he also thinks people like you are stupid Nazi wannabes. He is NOT on your side, however much you wish he was.

[Name removed]

28. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Change has come]

27. Gratitude for what?

:hi: They're killing Iraqi's instead of Libs? :dem:

[Pandrmn]

29. Serving in our armed forces

[Change has come]

32. Defending our Constitution?

From enemies Foreign and Domestic? :hi: :dem:

[Pandrmn]

33. Risking their lives. Defending our constitution is our job.

B-)

[Change has come]

34. That sure made last November satisfying!

A few more elections and we WILL restore our Constitution! :patriot:

Freepers don't have to take an oath?:hi:

[Pandrmn]

35. Hope you are right! I mean left, you know what I mean!

[Pandrmn]

37. Ps. Great Cat!

[Pandrmn]

30. Serving in our armed forces

[tkmorris]

38. Well. you're welcome

However, I disagree with you utterly about Iran, and just about everything else you've posted. So do the majority of other veterans I know.

[Pandrmn]

41. The WWII, Korean, Vietnam, and other Vets agree they would bet

theirs and their families lives on the intelligence regarding Iran? Further, they would rebuke our gratitude for their service?

[Gwerlain]

18. Yes.

And based on your posts, I know a hell of a lot more about it than you do, sport.

Troll alert, folks.

[blonndee]

19. I did so already.

This dude...already Kool-Aided himself.

[Pandrmn]

25. Oh no, not another revocation!

[alittlelark]

43. I am 'My life' . Why would I BE my life on something?

Talk to your 6th grade English teacher.

[WritersBlock]

53. We already are. Because the alternative is GeeDumbya kicking off WWIII. n/t

[Nutmegger]

11. I heard some asswipe on NPR say that they are four/five years away from the "bomb"

What utter crap. :puke:

Good info, :kick: and :thumbsup:!

[roguevalley]

16. given the propensity of the gov't to lie, we cannot trust them. unfortunately.

[Gwerlain]

26. Well, actually,

that's what El Baradei thinks, too; "at minimum," however, is added to his opinion. Did you notice whether the asswipe said that or not? And did you notice that El Baradei is quoted in the very article this thread references as saying so?

My personal opinion is that it's more like a decade, but that is probably over-optimistic. In any case, the ayatollahs are telling Ahmadinejad to back off; which, if it IS all propaganda, might just be a good idea, all things considered.

[cynatnite]

20. I don't want Iran to have a nuclear bomb...

I think they'll get it in probably about 10 or 15 years. Hopefully, both the US and Iran has progressive types who are more interested in peace rather than sticking their tongues out at each other like first graders.

[slipslidingaway]

40. Explainer: Enriching uranium (for dummies)

This short article helped me to understand just a little of the process.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1752042,00.html

[Morereason]

50. What concerns me is that they were kicking out observers in the last week

I was going with the thought of propaganda until I saw this. They kicked out the lead observer as well as others. That concerns me.
Not that Bush gets any credit. If Iran is building bombs it is a reaction to his stupid "Axis of Evil" rheteric and war mongering.

[MadHound]

52. And why were they kicking out inspectors?

Oh, yeah, because the UN is passing a resolution to put sanctions on Iran.

Meanwhile the latest inspection report detailed that Iran had no facilities to produce nuclear weapons, and are years away from any possible weapons grade material. In fact the only nuclear material that Iran has produced is a few grams of fuel grade, five percent enriched uranium. Weapons grade is eighty five percent enriched, and that take a long time to produce via gas centrifuge. In fact if you have fifty thousand centrifuges, it would still take you ten years to produce enough material for a bomb. Currently Iran has three hundred, and is adding three thousand more. A number much more in line with producing fuel grade material, not weapons grade.

And while we don't have inspectors in Iran, we still know what they're doing to a certain extent. A facility to make nuclear weapons would be a hard thing to hide. They can't make the required components themselve, so they have to import them. These facilities are specalized, and pretty large. Take years to build too. Between keeping an eye on their imports, and a satellite scanning their country side, it's a pretty safe bet that we'll know when Iran is producing weapons. if ever.

[Morereason]

54. I disagree... We were only guessing with N. Korea

We unfortunately do not have good enough technology to know without inspectors.

Understand, I do not like what Bush has done. He has painted the world into a corner. And stoked all this up. But we can't ignore where it is going. I was an opponent of dropping Bombs in Iran, But these latest moves have me very concerned.

[MadHound]

55. No, somebody knew exactly what was going on with N. Korea,

It is just that this misadministration seems to have a propensity to not listen to its intelligence experts.

It is utterly amazing what we can discern from satellite pictures, and not just visible spectrum but infraread and ultraviolet. The last generation of satellites can read your signature on a piece of paper. The new generation can discern what sort of paper it is. The next generation will be able to do so when you are in your house.

And frankly, the time factor is what is reassuring here. It would take decades for Iran to enrich enough bomb grade material with the number of centrifuges they have now. They don't(according to inspectors on the ground) have any sort of nuclear weapons facility, another time consuming enterprise. And frankly, the materials that go into these two endeavors are quite specialized and rare, and thus are easy to track. I wouldn't get worried until I heard that Iran had taken delivery of fifty thousand centrifuges. Then it would only require ten years to enrich enough material for a bomb.

There is this low but rising drumbeat for war with Iran. It is evident in this misadministration and in the MSM. Don't fall for it, it is pure BS. The roadblocks that Iran has to overcome in order to have a fully functioning nuclear weapons program insures that it will be years before Iran is nuke capable. In the meantime, we should find common ground with Iran in order than we don't have to worry about a weapons program.