If the unemployment rate doesn't improve...

[jtb33]

By the time the 2012 elections roll around, will Mitt Romney be able to defeat President Obama?

Assume that the unemployment rate is still sliding downwards (a horrible thought that far out, I know).

[scheming daemons]

1. By 2012, it will have improved.... not all the way back to <5%, but back to <8%

Just my crystal ball.

[Oregone]

4. Some crystal balls predict stagflation

And its entirely possible without enough federal money injected wisely into the economy. Who knows.

[jtb33]

7. I hope you're right!

...I'm just not that optimistic, hence my "what if" scenario.

[Common Sense Party]

2. It sure didn't improve by FDR's second term

But he managed to get re-elected.

[depakid]

3. Short answer- yes

[Auggie]

5. No. Obama is eminently more likable than Romney,

and that's how people vote.

[el_bryanto]

6. There are too many other factors to consider

Between now and then.

I can certainly envision scenarios where Obama loses to Romney, I hate to say. But most of them involve other factors.

Bryant

[ZombieHorde]

8. Obama will be a tougher sell if unemployment has not decreased.

If unemployment does decrease and a half way decent or a fully decent health care bill is passed, Obama should be an easy sell.

These are nil if something weird happens between now and then.

[LaurenG]

9. Unless Obama does something really bizarre - I don't think we'll have to worry

about republicans...They are causing themselves some terrible wounds, and wounding others in the process. The majority of people in this country are all about making the pain go away not trying to bring on more heartache. So no.

[CoffeeCat]

12. The big problem though...

...is that the Dem and Republican neocons have control of the voting machines.

I'm not so sure that the neocons really appreciate Obama, and they might be
planning on replacing him with someone who is more friendly toward their
radical agenda.

[LaurenG]

13. That is possible, I'm just not getting that scenario

but I do think there will be tons of corruption unveiled as we progress through the next 3 years.

[CoffeeCat]

10. The fact is...

...and I'm sorry I'm such a negative Nellie--but the economy is going to tank until we hit
a bottom that will be absolutely horrendous. And it's going to tank, no matter if Democrats
or Republicans are in control. I'm convinced that this has all been orchestrated.

The economic crisis in the fall, was an "economic 9/11" and our response was to bailout the
banks and give them trillions of dollars. That response was like the Patriot Act. We do
stupid things, when we're afraid and in the middle of a crisis.

The house of cards is falling and the economy is tanking. The Fascist warmongers who want
control of the populace will gain further control when everyone is poor, worried, fearful
and scrambling for food.

The only difference is---if there is a Republican or a DCL Dem in the White House--we will
take bigger steps toward Fascism. If there is a Progressive Dem or a politician who is
unfriendly toward this malark--this will slow down the Dem/Rep neocons too.

However, the house of cards has all ready started to topple and I don't see anything
stopping it. That includes continued and rising unemployment.

[Horse with no Name]

19. Which is why we should have let it fail

because inevitably, it will and instead should have taken the money to build it up rather than prop it up.

[left coaster]

11. Oh *sure*..

Mitt Romney aka The Job Killer will beat Obama in 2012..

:eyes:

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

14. "All politics is local" Tip O'Neil

To the average person, the ideology of a candidate is irrelevant. What's important is what's happening in their own lives or what they perceive to be happening to the country.

Obama didn't win because of his beliefs, charm, charisma, intelligence, or abilities. He won because Dubya made a shit salad out of everything.

If things aren't improving, or seen to be improving, Obama will have a hard time winning in 2012. People will seek "change" no matter how abstract the notion may be.

[MUAD_DIB]

15. And pray tell what will be Mitten's platform? More tax cuts?

That strategary has worked wonders so far.


Unless the GOPygs come up with more than just sound bites then what will they have to offer besides Mitt's empty smile?

[hugo_from_TN]

16. Yes

The economy trumps all other issues.

[obliviously]

17. I don't see a republican

party that is a threat to anyone other than themselves. What worries me is caribou barbie starting a conservative party and taking independents with her.

[Horse with no Name]

18. Do you really think a republican is going to vote for a Mormon?

Seriously? That's why they like that batshit crazy Palin--she's a Christianist...just like they are.
They could care less about intelligence or business savvy as long as they lub dem sum jeebus!

[OhioChick]

20. If the unemployment rate doesn't improve...

Then the Dems should be truly worried. As someone up-thread put it, economy/jobs trump all else.