Global Warming and Colder Springs….

[Junkdrawer]

True Story:
In the late 70s, my brother worked at NOAA at their climate modeling division. One of the scientists there created a Jet Stream model. That model showed that, as Global Warming added energy to the atmosphere, the bends in the Jet Stream would increase until there was “a week of summer and a week of winter pretty much the whole year round.” The model was dismissed as producing “ridiculous results”.

Now, assuming that this model wasn’t so ridiculous, how would this play out? Well, the Arctic is in darkness half of the year, so, Global Warming not withstanding, it’s going to get cold. And its peak of cold will tend to be near the end of the dark period, say February. But if a meandering Jet Stream spreads this cold over larger areas, we can expect much colder late winters and much cooler springs in the temperate latitudes. And, since energy is conserved, this means that average Arctic temperatures will rise faster than would otherwise be expected. Here’s a map of average temperature deviation:



Note that the largest warming is seen in the Arctic.

Now, this may be really bad news for the things we worry most about Global Warming, namely the melting of Arctic ice and, especially, Greenland ice. Indeed, that latest news reports seem to bear this out:

Study shows Arctic ice still disappearing

BOULDER, Colo., April 5 (UPI) -- A team of U.S. scientists has determined the maximum extent of Arctic sea ice the past winter was the second lowest on satellite record.

The University of Colorado-Boulder researchers said the extent of the Arctic ocean covered by at least 15 percent ice was 5.7 million square miles in March, slightly higher than the record low of 5.6 million square miles measured in March 2006.

The declining sea ice has been blamed on higher winter temperatures in the Arctic, which are believed to be a result of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and strong natural variability in the ice, said researcher Walt Meier of CU-Boulder's National Snow and Ice Data Center.

....


http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/index.php?feed=Science&article=UPI-1-20070405-09120400-bc-us-arcticice.xml

[Kolesar]

1. In the eastern US, the persistent "Bermuda High" pushes the jet stream to a stable northern route

...the jet stream wavers north and south in the western United States, but in the east it stays north and heads out through the Ohio Valley or Southern Canada and off into the North Atlantic Ocean. Are you saying that the jet stream will now waver around well into summer?

[Junkdrawer]

2. As I heard the story, the early NOAA model showed the jet stream...

meandering over larger and larger areas the more energy you added to the system.

In other words, instead of a straight line band circling the globe, it looks like a sine wave with larger and larger amplitudes.

[Kolesar]

6. I've pondered the duality of the location of the jet stream & location of the high pressure systems

The low pressure systems form at the borders of the high pressure systems (air masses) and are especially potent when the air masses are of different temperatures and moisture levels. So, by one view the jet stream "forms" by following the low pressure systems and the fronts at the borders of the air masses. By another view, the jet stream itself has an ability to define how far north the air masses travel by acting as a sort of wall. This might be question for the weather forum to sort out.

[Junkdrawer]

8. One way or another, it seems that arctic cold is getting mixed...

with temperate warmth faster than it used to.

[Junkdrawer]

3. I just Googled this up:

Jet streams off track, may affect weather patterns

Seattle researchers have discovered that warming of the Earth's atmosphere seems to be shoving jet streams out of their normal tracks — a change that could expand deserts and profoundly affect the world's weather patterns.

Over the past 27 years, the high-speed air currents that steer storms to temperate zones in both hemispheres have shifted about one degree toward the poles, or about 70 miles, scientists estimate in a paper published today in the journal Science.


...

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003019908_jetstreams26m.html

[Toots]

4. self delete

:shrug:

[lovuian]

5. Yes the artic is in darkness for 6 months BUT imagine 24hours

of sunlight beating down on you... that could be literally tropical
lots of different factors

[Junkdrawer]

7. This much we know:

1.) The Arctic is getting warmer than the average global temperature rise.

2.) Late winters and early springs are getting colder in the Eastern US

I submit the two are related.