Iran: The End Game Approaches? - DailyKos

[WillyT]

Iran: The End Game Approaches?
by Dallasdoc
Mon Jun 22, 2009 at 08:06:42 PM PDT

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Tonight the invaluable Nico Pitney at HuffPo cites a very interesting analysis of Iranian clerical politics published at EurasiaNet, a project of the Open Society Institute which is sponsored by George Soros.

A source familiar with the thinking of decision-makers in state agencies that have strong ties to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said there is a sense among hardliners that a shoe is about to drop. Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani -- Iran’s savviest political operator and an arch-enemy of Ayatollah Khamenei’s -- has kept out of the public spotlight since the rigged June 12 presidential election triggered the political crisis. The widespread belief is that Rafsanjani has been in the holy city of Qom, working to assemble a religious and political coalition to topple the supreme leader and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Yesterday's reports indicated that five members of Ayatollah Rafsanjani's family were arrested by the authorities, ostensibly to prevent their assassination as a provocation by the regime's opponents as Rachel Maddow reported this evening. Rafsanjani heads the Assembly of Experts, based in the holy city of Qom, which is the group which has the power to name or remove the Supreme Leader (Khamenei). Rafsanjani's maneuvers have been rumored since the unrest began, and I've been watching for word of their results. This is the first significant report I've found, though sourcing is anonymous.

... Rafsanjani has succeeded in knocking the supreme leader off his pedestal by revealing Ayatollah Khamenei to be a political partisan rather than an above-the-fray spiritual leader. In other words, the supreme leader has become a divider, not a uniter.

Now that Ayatollah Khamenei has become inexorably connected to Ahmadinejad’s power grab, many clerics are coming around to the idea that the current system needs to be changed. Among those who are now believed to be arrayed against Ayatollah Khamenei is Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the top Shi’a cleric in neighboring Iraq. Rafsanjani is known to have met with Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani’s representative in Iran....

The sole justification for the Islamic Republic in Iran is the idea that the state should be guided by religious authorities to ensure that it follows religious ideals of justice. The actions of Ayatollah Khamenei in stealing the election and brutally repressing the populace since has forfeited the Supreme Leader's religious authority, as there is no longer any moral justification for his leadership. al-Sistani's involvement would represent not only an interesting reversal of neighborly political meddling in the area, but also serves as a reminder that the Shi'a clergy in Iraq hold great authority throughout the Shi'a world, including Iran. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, perhaps the most respected religious authority in Iran, has called for three days of mourning for the victims of the demonstrations, which legitimizes future defiance of Khamenei's authority and sets up a religious as well as a secular confrontation.

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More: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/6/22/745732/-Iran:-The-End-Game-Approaches

:wow:

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. I got the feeling that we are reaching a tipping point too

[MrModerate]

2. Interesting that an Iraqi cleric may be involved in destabilizing Iran . . .

Rather than the other way around. Sadly, I don't see how this can resolve without great upset, and probably substantial bloodshed.

[Aloha Spirit]

3. Well, he's not that foreign, grew up in Iran

but good point!

[Wizard777]

4. I've heard one of their Generals have been arrested too. So the military may be fragmenting as well.

The military is Khamenei's only real hope of retaining power. I think Ahmadinejads trip to Russia was to try to arrange some back up from an alli. But I don't think Putin is going to play ball with Khamenei and Ahmadinejad.

[alfredo]

5. K&R

[WillyT]

6. Morning Kick !!!

:hangover:

:kick:

[NashVegas]

7. Gee, Maybe We Should Shift Our Troops In Iraq Over, So They Can Help Stabilize Things?

:sarcasm:






Mark the date.

[sufrommich]

8. I doubt Obama has any intention of doing anything even

approaching a military intervention in Iran. The Bush years are over.

[KharmaTrain]

9. Yes...But Going Into Another Phase...

As a student of history, I see some parallels in the ongoing Iranian social and political revolution (going back to 1941) and those in France, Germany, Russia & China. It's a clash of cultures, history, technology and religion...and these revolutions tend to take many twists and turns over the years and the generations as the focus of said revolution changes.

Many of the scenes I see are eerily reminiscent of 1978-79...but this is a new generation rising up against an established oligarchy. It's a move that, while not repudiating the '79 revolution, it's sure to send the political fate of Iran in a different direction. As is always the case, true change comes from within...and hopefully we are wise enough to support the change while trying to understand it.