The protesters at Tienanmen Square got the word out by faxing around the world.

[rug]

In Tehran words and pictures are getting out by youtube and twitter.

The technology of the last 20 years is about to bring down a government.

[EFerrari]

1. If the embassies are taking in the opposition wounded,

isn't the capitol already out of their hands?

:wow:

[drm604]

2. My understanding is that the Basij are now waiting outside embassies

and taking into custody people who try to enter.

[Adsos Letter]

4. I heard that also.

[EFerrari]

6. But having to do that only further exposes their weakness.

Their process has exploded. I hope SOMEONE has a plan to put this back together.

[rug]

12. That last sentence says it all.

[Adsos Letter]

15. I heard a report last night (I can't swear to the accuracy) that the Basij were covering their faces

so as not to be identified. The source claimed this was an innovation, and indicative that the Basij are fearful that the potential for a powershift is real enough to cause them to fear repercussions.

[rug]

18. If the police are hiding their faces, they've lost.

[EFerrari]

21. Is there any indication that a different regime is ready to step in?

That's the real question here. If this regime falls amid violence, what then?

[rug]

23. I haven't heard anything about an organization or a program. It's spontaneous.

And that's the big problem. This is beyond an election now. The government, and the ideology of the last 30 years, is up for grabs.

The opportunists will swoop in instantly unless some entity steps up.

[EFerrari]

24. The opportunists have been there all along, imho.

Mousavi was heavily backed by the Saudis. I'd hope that they have a plan. I take it that the State Department is also in the loop, given that one of their flunkies leaked about Twitter.

At least that idiot isn't still in the White House.

[drm604]

22. Supposedly a crowd in Tehran chased a bunch of Basij into a Basij headquarters

then set it on fire.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGyZo2jOOYY

[madeline_con]

30. Their families can be dragged from their beds, also. n/t

[PretzelWarrior]

8. then the people need to take the guns of the basij. shoot them....

and then guard the areas outside the embassies. THIS IS BULLSHIT! FUCK THE POWERFUL and CRUEL Iranian dictators.

[aquart]

16. Passive resistance is not a concept for you, is it?

You'll get your wish. It's going to be much bloodier. None of the blood will be yours.

[madeline_con]

28. That's not the approach to take with the Basij. n/t

[JI7]

20. once you take away their weapons there is no need to shoot them

[madeline_con]

29. They'll live to fight another day. Kill them. n/t

[JI7]

31. how about taking them prisoner ?

[madeline_con]

32. And keep them where?

Actually, hostages to leverage the release of protesters isn't a bad idea, except for the logistics of where to keep them, how to feed them, and all sorts of other considerations. If there's a general strike, it will be increasingly harder to secure food as time goes on.

[EFerrari]

33. Lots of space on the university campus. Probably food facilities

and a first aid station, too.

[madeline_con]

34. Food facilities have to have food distribution. n/t

[EFerrari]

35. Sure. But if the government manages to interdict food supply

it won't be much harder to feed a few hostages than to feed everybody else and the group facilities might make it a little easier to organize.

[madeline_con]

36. a few hostages There are hundreds of Basij, to even make a dent in their numbers,

a lot of them would have to be taken off the streets. Killing some would be a practical necessity.

[Adsos Letter]

3. I wonder how the military will come down in all of this.

Stand aside, as in Russia in the 90's?

Back the status quo?

Split internally and initiate a phase of increased violence?

[EFerrari]

5. That is the next important locus of power to watch, imho.

Thoughts, wishes, prayers.

[Adsos Letter]

10. Yes; as I just responded to you in another thread...

Are there fractures of loyalty within the military? How will those play out, if they exist? Will Iran's sense of being surrounded by enemies force the military to side with the status quo in order to forestall further instability?

Thoughts, wishes, and prayers, indeed.

[Hoopla Phil]

7. Oh Hell, and I thought I saw video of it. . . .

[rug]

9. Any non media video you saw was much later.

[Hoopla Phil]

19. Really? I remember staying up late to watch the "live" CNN footage. . . Humm. . . .

[Selatius]

11. When China crushed the protesters in 1989, they used a trick to get around internal opposition.

When the Chinese government first sent in military units, they sent in units not too far away from Beijing itself to crush the protesters. The problem was when the units were attempting to move through the city and reach the square, they were swamped by citizens who begged, pleaded with them. They were saying things like, "It could be your brother in the square there. Do you really want to do it?" This thoroughly demoralized the units. Many of the soldiers were either from Beijing or the surrounding areas, and they consequently had some sympathy.

The regime found that since these units could not reach the square, they would be pulled back and placed into barracks.

The next thing the regime did was to bring in military units from far away, hundred or thousands of miles away. They calculated that the soldiers in these units would have little in common with people in and around Beijing and would be less likely to be sympathetic to them. Add in some propaganda just to make sure. They calculated correctly. The units were sent in again, and again they were swamped by citizens as they attempted to reach the square, but this time they pushed through using force despite the pleas from the citizens. These soldiers were far more willing to fire on citizens, and they did. Thousands of student protesters died in those June days, but the regime was secured in its seat of power.

The Chinese Communist Party did not go the way of the Soviet Communist Party.

[Adsos Letter]

13. If the reports suggesting large numbers of Hezbollah from Lebanon

have entered the country, one might expect a similar result.

My question is, what will the iranian military do/ The longer this continues ( and I can't imagine it ending anytime soon) the more I suspect they will be forced to pick a side.

[Selatius]

25. What will the Iranian military do? That's the million dollar question.

Hard to say. To be sure, there are loyalists in the ranks who follow Khomeini and his dictates. They will answer him when he calls them out of the barracks. If the regime decides to try to copy China's example, they will hand select the most loyal units and then push their way through Tehran until it is all cleared of protesters.

This will require massive clampdown on information. They don't want news spreading inside Iran that thousands were killed. It might provoke potentially dissident units into rebellion. They could do this by cutting the power grid as another means of stopping information. No power, no cellphones, no internet, no problem for the regime. This would give the regime time to put down the protesters. Even if news gets out, the units that might rebel would have nobody to join in the streets. The protesters are already dead.

They would try to make sure that the military, as a whole, does not get a chance to answer the question of which side to support. They want to keep units that might disobey orders in check simply by not giving them orders, to simply keep them in their bases and in the dark.

[rug]

26. Cutting off electricity is opening their jugular.

[Selatius]

27. It's a possibility, cutting off power to Tehran to take it.

That, and basically sealing off all roads in and out of Tehran until the whole thing is over, kind of like what happened in parts of Beijing.

However, I think this regime is a bit more brittle than the Chinese Communist Party was in 1980s China. It may have already cut its own throat by rigging its own election.

[rug]

14. At least the Soviet Party didn't turn into Goldman Sachs like the CCP.

But back to your point. The Iranian government has a real dilemma. There's far more external pressure on them and far less internal support for them after 30 years of theocracy.

[aquart]

17. Nor were they professing to follow the Koran and the will of Allah.

[Life Long Dem]

37. Remember yesterday, when the media's blackout turned into Twitter images!

With no filter! Remember this day in the fight for power to the people. And remember the word's of the President on this day. "The world is watching". There is new meaning to this sentence today all because of recent technology to in fact literally mean "the world is watching!".

[Name removed]

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