Mother Jones: Goodbye to Cheap Oil

[steven johnson]

The new 2009 International Energy Outlook (IEO)produced by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy has some grim projections: a sharp drop in projected future world oil output and a corresponding increase in reliance on what are called "unconventional fuels"—oil sands, ultra-deep oil, shale oil, and biofuels. This projected drop in oil output is new to this governmental report although it has been in the NGO press for some time. The combination of increased third world consumption and no readily available alternative energy sources make future belt tightening likely.

As recently as 2007, the IEO projected that the global production of conventional oil (the stuff that comes gushing out of the ground in liquid form) would reach 107.2 million barrels per day in 2030, a substantial increase from the 81.5 million barrels produced in 2006. Now, in 2009, the latest edition of the report has grimly dropped that projected 2030 figure to just 93.1 million barrels per day—in future-output terms, an eye-popping decline of 14.1 million expected barrels per day.

Even when you add in the 2009 report's projection of a larger increase than once expected in the output of unconventional fuels, you still end up with a net projected decline of 11.1 million barrels per day in the global supply of liquid fuels (when compared to the IEO's soaring 2007 projected figures). What does this decline signify—other than growing pessimism by energy experts when it comes to the international supply of petroleum liquids?

Very simply, it indicates that the usually optimistic analysts at the Department of Energy now believe global fuel supplies will simply not be able to keep pace with rising world energy demands. For years now, assorted petroleum geologists and other energy types have been warning that world oil output is approaching a maximum sustainable daily level—a peak—and will subsequently go into decline, possibly producing global economic chaos. Whatever the timing of the arrival of peak oil's actual peak, there is growing agreement that we have, at last, made it into peak-oil territory, if not yet to the moment of irreversible decline.

At first glance, the International Energy Outlook for 2009 hardly looks different from previous editions: a tedious compendium of tables and text on global energy trends. Looked at another way, however, it trumpets the headlines of the future—and their news is not comforting.

http://www.motherjones.com/economy/2009/06/goodbye-cheap-oil">Goodbye to Cheap Oil

[krispos42]

1. And yet there are oil tankers full of crude anchored off our coast

Thank you, JP Morgan.

[TacticalPeek]

2. Not just crude, record amounts of refined product are floating in tankers in this glut.

So who's buying 72 dollar oil when there's hardly a place to park it?

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=Business_News&subsection=market+news&month=May2009&file=Business_News2009051981730.xml

Bend over, here comes last summer again.

[krispos42]

3. There is a shortage of crude as an investment tool, not as a consumable resource

You give tax breaks to the rich, and this is what they do.. invest it. You slash Social Security and make everybody invest in 401(k)s, and all that money gets invested as well.

In oil. And real estate. And tech stocks.



And then people sit around scratching themselves wondering why everything costs so damn much. IT'S BECAUSE YOU'RE VOTING REPUBLICAN!!!

[TacticalPeek]

4. In oil. And real estate. And tech stocks.

And congresscritters.

[JDPriestly]

5. Obama was elected to prove Democrats can do better.

So far, our hopes have not been fulfilled. Obama has more time, but not much more. Human nature will kick in and kick Obama out if he doesn't make some bold moves very soon. He wanted this job. Now he needs to do it. We need strong regulation of Wall Street, taxes on speculation and day trading and real health care reform including at least a public option if not single payer.

[hoosier_lefty]

6. WoW!

I think you nailed it 100% !

Also Congressional Democrats need to kick it in high gear
or they are gonna lose their hold in the mid-terms.