Another same-sex marriage battle next year may be too soon
By Mike Swift
Mercury News
Posted: 05/29/2009 11:00:00 PM PDT
Updated: 05/31/2009 04:49:48 AM PDT
Despite painful consecutive losses at the ballot box and in the courts, advocates for gay marriage are gearing up for a fight they say they can win: a statewide vote on same-sex marriage in 2010. But there are signs next year could be too soon for another fight on this volatile and exhausting issue.
For several reasons, the political climate in 2010 could be even less hospitable than in November, when 52 percent of the state's voters endorsed Proposition 8, restricting marriage to a man and a woman. Gay men and lesbians have since won the right to marry in several New England states and Iowa, but those victories came from legislative or judicial actions — not initiative elections.
"The turn in 2010 is going to be markedly negative for them," said Frank Schubert, the Sacramento political consultant who ran the Yes on 8 campaign last year, and who would head a 2010 campaign to uphold Proposition 8.
Schubert predicts at least a third of the 2008 electorate, particularly those young, first-time voters who turned out to vote for Barack Obama, won't show up at the polls in 2010. "They are not going to show up to vote for Gavin Newsom or Jerry Brown," he said of two potential Democratic gubernatorial nominees for 2010.
http://www.mercurynews.com/elections/ci_12486231the tyranny of mob rule.