WHO says swine flu alert closer to pandemic, spreading widely between people but low mortality still

[uppityperson]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hG6zmXnY6v5La-llZ8qbQIrdE-WAD98IMB4O0

The World Health Organization said Tuesday it is "getting closer" to declaring a global outbreak of the swine flu virus as the infection appears to be taking hold outside of North America. WHO flu chief Keiji Fukuda said the disease has reached 64 countries and infected 18,965 people, causing 117 deaths. The overwhelming majority of cases and deaths have been reported in Mexico and the United States, but increasingly the virus is spreading from person to person in countries as far apart as Britain, Spain, Japan, Chile and Australia.

"We still are waiting for evidence of really widespread community activity in these countries, and so it's fair to say that they are in transition and are not quite there yet, which is why we are not in phase 6 yet," Fukuda said.

Phase 6 is the highest alert on WHO's scale, signaling a pandemic — a global epidemic. In terms of the geographic spread of swine flu, the world is "at phase 5 but getting closer to phase 6," Fukuda said. WHO is now debating whether to add a second measure that indicates how dangerous the virus is — rather than just how widespread — after several countries raised concerns that declaring a global pandemic could cause mass confusion and panic even though it is still unclear how dangerous the virus will be.

Some nations have already imposed costly trade and travel barriers, "drastic actions" that Fukuda said WHO would seek to prevent. The agency is calling the situation "moderate" rather than "mild" while it waits to see how the outbreak develops. Some experts have reported patients with symptoms different from those expected in this type of flu and the virus is causing severe infections in healthy, young adults. "So we do have some hesitation in calling such an infection mild," Fukuda said. "It's probably fair to call the situation something like moderate right now."

[Mojorabbit]

1. We are already at six

The WHO is bowing to political pressure not to call it yet. It is a shame to see.

[uppityperson]

2. You mean we are at 6, but WHO hasn't called it yet? I agree

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html

Current WHO phase of pandemic alert
Current phase of alert in the WHO global influenza preparedness plan
Pandemic preparedness

In the 2009 revision of the phase descriptions, WHO has retained the use of a six-phased approach for easy incorporation of new recommendations and approaches into existing national preparedness and response plans. The grouping and description of pandemic phases have been revised to make them easier to understand, more precise, and based upon observable phenomena. Phases 1–3 correlate with preparedness, including capacity development and response planning activities, while Phases 4–6 clearly signal the need for response and mitigation efforts. Furthermore, periods after the first pandemic wave are elaborated to facilitate post pandemic recovery activities.

The current WHO phase of pandemic alert is 5.


In nature, influenza viruses circulate continuously among animals, especially birds. Even though such viruses might theoretically develop into pandemic viruses, in Phase 1 no viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause infections in humans.

In Phase 2 an animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.

In Phase 3, an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks. Limited human-to-human transmission may occur under some circumstances, for example, when there is close contact between an infected person and an unprotected caregiver. However, limited transmission under such restricted circumstances does not indicate that the virus has gained the level of transmissibility among humans necessary to cause a pandemic.

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.

During the post-peak period, pandemic disease levels in most countries with adequate surveillance will have dropped below peak observed levels. The post-peak period signifies that pandemic activity appears to be decreasing; however, it is uncertain if additional waves will occur and countries will need to be prepared for a second wave.

Previous pandemics have been characterized by waves of activity spread over months. Once the level of disease activity drops, a critical communications task will be to balance this information with the possibility of another wave. Pandemic waves can be separated by months and an immediate “at-ease” signal may be premature.

In the post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.

[FiveGoodMen]

3. I personally know twenty people who have died of this in the last week.

We should shut down the world!

[kestrel91316]

4. Your ignorance of public health, epidemiology, and virology, as evidenced

by your snark, is nothing to be proud of. This bug poses a major POTENTIAL threat. We ignore that threat at our own peril.

[FiveGoodMen]

6. And quaking in fear will help us how?

[uppityperson]

9. Ignoring the reality that it is widespread will help us how? WHO is trying to

find a way to get across to people that "pandemic" doesn't mean death, but widespread.

It is funny that you seem to want to mock WHO and those of us who are interested in this by only seeing a pandemic as life threatening. Watching this isn't quaking in fear, but keeping an eye on this.

[uppityperson]

5. Perhaps you missed this part of OP subject lint " low mortality "

you don't have to click on any thread you know. If you click to merely mock, shame on you. Several of us are watching this with interest and not everything has to be OMG THE WORLD'S GONNA END.

[FiveGoodMen]

7. No, I saw that.

I also saw things like this:

"The WHO is bowing to political pressure not to call it yet. It is a shame to see."

Apparently, politics is preventing us from panicking enough.

[uppityperson]

8. Then you also saw this in OP...

"WHO is now debating whether to add a second measure that indicates how dangerous the virus is — rather than just how widespread — after several countries raised concerns that declaring a global pandemic could cause mass confusion and panic even though it is still unclear how dangerous the virus will be."

People panicking is causing WHO to bow to pressure and is preventing them from calling it what it is.