Florida and South Coast DUers - here comes Tropical weather season 2009

[malaise]

An area of showers and thunderstorms is over the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, in association with a trough of low pressure. The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to forecast that this disturbance will develop into an extratropical low by Tuesday. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it lifts northwestward over Florida. Up to nine inches of rain may fall over Florida by Friday (Figure 1), thanks also to a cold front expected to move over the state over the next two days. The exact timing and location of the rains over Florida are still uncertain, as the GFS model predicts development of the low over the Bahamas, while the ECMWF and UKMET models predict development over South Florida. At present, it appears wind shear will be too high to allow the extratropical storm to transition into a subtropical or tropical storm. However, if the storm's center emerges into the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week, wind shear may be low enough to allow a transition to a subtropical storm (10% chance).

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1223


Looks like a Tropical Storm at most.

[spanone]

1. take care down there malaise!!!!!

:hi:

[malaise]

2. Just well needed rain

down here so far. Thanks.

[fishnfla]

15. we do need the rain

but do stay away hurry-cane!

[lpbk2713]

3. I'll be happy if we don't get another season like '04.

I remember it well. We were right in the middle where they all crossed paths.

I don't want that to happen again any time soon.

[malaise]

7. My sister and her peeps

packed up and headed to another sister in Atlanta after the second one.
They couldn't take another one.

[buzzycrumbhunger]

4. Duhhhh

. . . so that's why it's been raining since last Wednesday. . . I was so glad to see a green yard again that it didn't occur to me to question why. Luckily, I love rain (though it makes me prone to climbing in bed for hours and hours at a stretch, like today). Don't mind the occasional TS, just so the serious hurricanes stay the hell away. I've still got crap I never repaired from the summer of Charley et al. . . :eyes:

[malaise]

8. Get cracking and repair that stuff

After TS Gustav last year, I'll even pass on Tropical Storms.
We just started refilling our hurricane supplies cupboard.

[Jeanette in FL]

5. My oh my, how the time just flies

I cannot believe that Hurricane Season is upon us again. Jeeze. It seems like just yesterday we were discussing......

I have a project going on in South Florida and they had to quit early today because of the thunder and lightning. I just told them about this storm coming.

We do need the rain though, the whole state has been under drought conditions for a long time now.

Thank you for the heads up, I always look forward to your updates, malaise.

:hi:

[malaise]

6. Stay safe sis

Here we go again. Good luck this season.

:hi:

[dgibby]

9. Thanks, M.

I'm in SC, and over the past 3 days we've had enough rain to overflow a 32gal. trash can! The dogs have to do the backstroke across the backyard! If that's not enough, it's windy and 58 degrees in Charleston. Go figure!

[malaise]

11. That's a lot of water

Watch out for the mosquitoes. :hi:

I heard last night that five people drowned in rip currents in Florida yesterday.

[ixion]

10. wheeee!

actually, I'm glad. We need rain here badly. :woohoo:

[malaise]

14. The Weather Channel peeps just said

that storm or no storm Florida will be a mess.

[ixion]

17. yeah, always is...

what can you do about the weather? :hi:

[dkofos]

12. Starting early this year.

[malaise]

13. Jeff Masters link has a list of the early storms

List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19511.asp
Check out Able and
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at190898.asp
Hurricane 1

[flvegan]

16. Ugh. Feels like we just finished last season a month ago.