What happen to the OMG SWINE FLU mega-disaster immanent headlines?

[Political Heretic]

It's only been like four days... is that the shelf life is MSM hysteria... which by the way blew the subject of torture RIGHT out of the headlines.

Read today that researchers are now saying swine flew looks pretty much just like regular flu, which by the way kills about 30,000 people each year without hysterical media fear-gasms.

EDIT - more importantly, will their be any media accountability for over-reacting and failing to provide any sort of journalistic objectivity instead opting for infortaiment cheap gags and sensationalism? Of course not.

[TWiley]

1. The same thing that should happen to asshole Dobbs and his racist campaign

It should go bye bye

[Junkdrawer]

2. The Pork Industry said xnay on the anicpay...

The US and Mexican governments said Yessir.

[Echo In Light]

4. Ha...apropos

[Political Heretic]

5. Oh please. They just started calling it something else, and were still reporting it.

That's not why the story has died.

The "story" has died because there was NO FUCKING STORY.

Just a nice infotainment distraction.

[Joanne98]

3. The swine lobby complained!

[MannyGoldstein]

6. Initial Reports From Mexico Were Pretty Nasty

Seems like either those reports were overblown, or the virus morphed into something milder.

[charlie and algernon]

7. it made it in the net, if it was going to be a massive pandemic

it would've happened already. The "net" in this case is air travel. Plus, what 100-200 people in the US have it and only 1 person died, giving it a 1% death rate?? not that scary.

[aquart]

14. More than 200 but you're right about the death rate.

THAT ISN'T WHAT IS SCARING WORLD GOVERNMENTS.

What is scaring them is that it came in the wrong season and killed the wrong people. JUST LIKE the 1918 bug, which was mild in the spring, came back in the fall to kill millions. THAT is what has all the systems gearing up.

And the rapid rate of infection has to do with nobody having antibodies to this flu. Because it's new.

Hopefully, they will be able to make enough vaccine by fall to prevent what happened in 1918.

[HereSince1628]

21. Cast not your pearls before swine-flu

Few understand.

Nonetheless EVERYONE in the know is grateful it has been mild everywhere except Mexico.

Everyone in the know hopes its significant antigens can be incorporated into a vaccine before next season.

[phantom power]

22. With modern vaccine manufacturing tech, that should be very doable, yes?

From isolated virus to mass produced vaccine in 4-6 months, isn't it?

[HereSince1628]

23. Looks to be more like the 6 month time frame. It is gonna be a close thing

for the vaccine makers.

Mid-October begins the season. It's often full underway by late November peaking in January.

[muriel_volestrangler]

31. If the labs manage to produce the hybrid needed for the vaccine quickly

First, "reverse genetics", where scientists take the H and the N surface proteins from the H1N1 virus and mix them with a laboratory virus known as PR8.

This creates a harmless hybrid virus which can be used for the vaccine.

The second technique involves injecting both the H1N1 and PR8 viruses into eggs and allowing the hybrid strain to be created through a natural re-assortment of their genes.
...
The first seed strain of H1N1 swine flu vaccine should be ready in three to four weeks. It will then take another four or five months for vaccine manufacturers to produce the vaccine in bulk.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8029917.stm

So it's tight, for the northern hemisphere; and the WHO is going to have to decide if this new vaccine should be made in preference to one of the existing strains they would have recommended otherwise. There isn't spare capacity; it's a tricky decision they'll have to make in the next few weeks.

[phantom power]

38. From the standpoint of shape-space coverage, I'd add this into the mix.

[Hannah Bell]

24. the 1918 bug produced 10s of 1000s of hospitalized cases within a month.

this bug doesn't seem to have such a "rapid rate of infection". in fact, spread seems rather slow.

[aquart]

28. Interesting. Which month?

Was that the initial mild spring infection? Or the virulent fall one? Because if that many got it in the spring, why didn't they have enough antibodies to save them in the fall?

[Hannah Bell]

30. My information is from Barry's "The Great Influenza," which i have on my lap.

Initial cluster = haskell, kansas in feb. 1918.

carried to camp funston, ks, early march.

"within 3 weeks 1100 troops at funston were sick enough to require hospitalization...then, like falling dominoes, other camps erupted with influenza....24 of the 36 largest camps experienced an influenza outbreak that spring...30 of the 50 largest cities...suffered an april spike in 'excess mortality'".

in europe by early april. By may:

"the british first army alone suffered 36,473 hospital admissions & tens of thousands of less serious cases."

in china end of may:

"it swept over the country like a tidal wave...half of chunking lay ill."


pp. 169-172 paperback edition.

[aquart]

32. Cool book.

But this is saying it was lethal out of the box. Definitely not what we've been dealing with. Thanks.

I can't even wrap my mind around such a worldwide horror. I understand about the shock of chunks of death here or there, but everywhere? Explains so much about the Roaring Twenties.

[Hannah Bell]

40. not lethal, it was very infectious, but not initially a big killer except in pockets.

but yes, according to what i've read, this swine flu doesn't seem much like 1918.

the "wave" thing seems a misnomer too. globally, the 1918 flu didn't disappear & then suddenly reemerge in the fall in a deadly form. it continued to infect people through the summer & into the fall at high levels.

i started wondering about those initial reports out of mexico about the swine flu striking down "young people in the prime of life with strong immune systems" when i read striking similar language in the book.

those early reports contained a level of detail unwarranted by the lack of real hard data & the supposedly chaotic situation in hospitals, etc. BUT PEOPLE TOOK THEM AS FACT.

The use of nearly identical language was suspicious - someone was drawing direct parallels to 1918 way in advance of the evidence - but it wasn't clear who - the statements weren't sourced.

& then shills like sanjay gupta go on tv & not only report "killing people in the prime of life" as fact, but say it's "cytokine storm" - set off my bullshit meter big time. Cytokine storm is a theoretical construct, not an observed fact.

If you're trained in emergency medicine, one of the first things you learn is not to pass on unconfirmed information & rumors to the public, & if you're asked about unconfirmed information to make it clear it's *not confirmed*. Rule broken by some of the *experts*, the media, & DU-ites recently.

[NeedleCast]

8. The same thing thats happened to the rest of these over-inflated mega-killer stories

Turns out it was never a story in the first place...

[Just-plain-Kathy]

9. After Rummy's stock portfolio profited $5million from his connection to the "bird flu" vaccine...

...the "Bird Flu" dropped off the planet. Now Obama just asked congress for $1.5 billion for "swine flu" vaccines and supplies. ...Big Pharmaceutical's appetite has been fed, the frenzy should be lightening up.

[TheCowsCameHome]

10. It went *Poof* - Just like McCain/Palin '08

[phantom power]

11. The initial mortality estimates (6%) were wrong.

I think the rate of infection was also determined to be lower than initially thought.

[Oregone]

13. But they were high enough that no one shoud be berated for expressing initial concern

It seems like only two things are accepted sometimes...wearing a sandwich sign on the corner proclaiming the end of the world, or taking a piss on that guy.

[aquart]

15. We have hundreds of cases here in Queens. Hundreds.

St. Francis Prep is one of the largest high schools in the city and ONE-THIRD of its people have symptoms. The city knows what they have so it stopped testing, hence, no more CONFIRMED cases, but we have them anyway.

[Oregone]

19. Yeah, its true that it isn't going away.

10 new cases in my province (front page of paper):
http://www.timescolonist.com/Health/cases+swine+Edmonton+girl+hospitalized/1562114/story.html

People in my city have it (39 in the province). I didn't hear about it in the MSM, so whenever I look at the local paper I am surprised at the number of cases it jumps up to.

Its tough to get your pulse on it though. Incidence without mortality isn't the biggest cause for concern though, unless you worry about it ability to mutate.

On edit: For some reason, Canada has far fewer people than the US, yet only half as many cases.

[Hannah Bell]

25. something wrong with this story. in a public health emergency, testing doesn't just "stop"

because a city says so, possible cases/outbreaks are monitored by state & national authorities.

how do you know there are "hundreds" of cases of swine flu in queens?

st francis is re-opening, you're saying they're purposefully endangering their students?


http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/education/2009/05/04/2009-05-04_back_to_school_lets_go_students_cheer_as_st_francis_to_reopen_today.htmlncis

[aquart]

27. I know they've reopened. I LIVE HERE.

And you know that the flu is quite mild and recovery has been swift. We don't close schools for mild flu. But yes, if you listen to the mayor's statements, he has SAID we know that they all have it over there so there was no point in spending more money on testing to find out.

The problem for the people in the area is that the mother's of those children use the same supermarkets we do. The teachers use the same gyms we do. The contact has been extensive. Will we all catch it or not?

I get page not found from your link.

[Hannah Bell]

29. cities don't have primary responsibility for testing in public health emergencies, states & feds do.

maybe he said it, it still doesn't seem to make sense.

http://news.google.com/news?pz=1&um=1&ned=us&hl=en&q=swine+flu+st+francis

http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/education/2009/05/04/2009-05-04_back_to_school_lets_go_students_cheer_as_st_francis_to_reopen_today.html

On edit: the statement was that health officials wouldn't test all the students at *st francis,* not that they'd stop testing period.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/29/nyregion/29school.html?em

[phantom power]

17. I agree completely...

We had an initial estimate of 6% mortality, a probable case count that was increasing by the hundreds daily in Mexico, and confirmed cases in 9 countries. It was spreading via the airlines, and it was in the school systems of major cities.

There's really only one sane response to that: start activating the pandemic plans.

Also, I'm not actually aware of any panic-mongering here on DU, or even in my local news. What I saw were public service messages to wash your hands and stay home if you were sick. That's the apocalypse?

[Oregone]

12. The thing about it though, is that you are creating an ironic dilemna...

If you scoff and mistrust the media, these co-conspirators in the hysteria, there is no way to prove they are not now covering up a massive epidemic killing thousands (right, they have no credibility now, do they?).

From what I see, there are as many hysteric people as those who will refuse to believe (despite evidence or reason) in any apocalyptic event (including an economic collapse). Nine times out of ten, the scoffers will be correct, and all those attention-getting original posts about denial will only go to show how brilliant the consistent nay-sayers are. They get to say "Im telling you so" and "I told you so" all at once, while everyone has to read their self-important threads (that are mutually posted over and over by different people, covering the same remarks). The problem is, one time out of ten, they will be wrong. Dead wrong. And so will the people they influenced.

Im not sure why people need to get attention with all these "hey, lookie me" posts. People should be seeking out valuable and accurate information about the flu, rather than following any group of hysterics. There is nothing wrong with being cautious, and attempting to learn if there is a problem (instead of denying or accepting a story in a reactionary manner).

The initial reports, alone, warranted that people opened their eyes, learned, and utilized caution. Regardless, no one is out of the woods, so the "hey, lookie me gloat at being right 9 times out of 10" threads could be a bit early.

[eShirl]

41. Oh, now you're just talking sense.

:donut: :thumbsup:

[Hannah Bell]

43. there is something wrong with passing on unconfirmed information as if it were fact,

& with pretending you know what's going to happen in the future (very bad things), which i saw several people here doing.

it scares people, & scared people do stupid things & allow stupid things to be done. it's panic-mongering. it's bad.

[TankLV]

16. WMADD

Whore Media Attention Deficit Disorder...

[TankLV]

18. damn double posts...

anybody else notice a slowing of DU these days?!!!

[Avalux]

20. Media accountability? Never.

This new virus isn't going away; it just isn't deadly enough to warrant the media's continued attention. If it comes back in the fall as a deadlier second wave, you can be sure they'll be happy about it and go nuts again.

Two things to separate out here - media over-reacting and the necessary concern from the scientific community at the beginning when there were a lot of unknowns about this virus. I made what I considered informative posts and thought the CDC and WHO were handling the outbreak appropriately. I couldn't be more relieved this virus has turned out to be a wimp.

[Dulcinea]

26. It ran its course.

Both the swine flu, and how long the story took to sell the maximum amount of ad time.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

33. They quit when the Vice President beat them at their fear mongering.

[KoKo]

34. Once the True Scientific Evidence came out...they RAN FOR THE HILLS!

Once the HYSTERIA by the RIGHT got Thrashed Down by REASON...there was no where for them to go...

:shrug: just saying...hypothesis.

[arcadian]

35. Funny, the swine flu hysteria wasn't able to kill the torture debate.

NPR was right back at it today with torture. Hahaha!

[BlooInBloo]

36. They're conferring, coming up with a response to it being "not stronger than regular seasonal flu"..

Per epidemiologists.

Certainly the omgwe'regonnadie flu mongering cheerleaders have a tough row to hoe. They can't admit being wrong, because they're American. They can't acknowledge a lesser threat level, because their entire raison d'etre would go poof. They can't discredit the source, because it's their own previously-beloved epidemiologists saying this.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3861389

I, for one, will be riveted to my teevee to see how they respond to this on the next episode of "As The Flu Cheerleader Turns".

[Bonobo]

37. I read a pretty funny thread on it earlier in GD...

It's all about how ADULTS are the ones that know how to be responsibly SCAAARED and that KIDS don't take it seriously.

[Catherine Vincent]

39. It will probably die down for now.

But I had a talk with one of the nurses at the doctor's office yesterday and she told me that they are afraid that it will come back with a vengeance in the fall.

So people, get ready.

[Hannah Bell]

42. "they're afraid" because people keep passing along the bullshit.

what does "get ready" even mean? who are "they"?

the 1918 flu had put 10s of thousands in the hospital one month after its initial cluster of feb cases, & would put hundreds of thousands in hospital within its second month.

it continued to circle the globe & infect lots of people through the summer & into the fall. it didn't disappear & then suddenly "pop up" in the fall.