WHO Influenza A(H1N1) - update 11

[FarCenter]

3 May 2009 -- As of 0600 GMT, 3 May 2009, 17 countries have officially reported 787 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 506 confirmed human cases of infection, including 19 deaths. The higher number of cases from Mexico in the past 48 hours reflects ongoing testing of previously collected specimens. The United States Government has reported 160 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (70), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Costa Rica (1), Denmark (1), France (2), Germany (6), Ireland (1), Israel (3), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (4), Republic of Korea (1), Spain (13), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (15).

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders. It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.

Canada on 2 May reported the identification of the A(H1N1) virus in a swine herd in Alberta. It is highly probable that the pigs were exposed to the virus from a Canadian farm worker recently returned from Mexico, who had exhibited flu-like symptoms and had contact with the pigs. There is no indication of virus adaptation through transfer from human to pigs at this time.

There is no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products.

Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.

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The swine herd infection in Alberta Canada is a bit worrisome. If the virus can easily transfer back into swine, there is a chance that it will reassort in swine with other swine and/or avian viruses. It could pick up additional genes which would make it more contagious or increase the severity of the disease in humans.

[Buzz Clik]

1. The number of reported/confirmed cases is incredibly variable.

This is not unlike the number of pet deaths attributed to pet food tainted with Chinese crud.

One gets the feeling that any number will do.

[FarCenter]

4. One cause for variabilty is how the counting is done

The lowest numbers that you hear are for cases or deaths that are confirmed as 2009(H1N1) by testing at a laboratory recognized by WHO. These are few in number (at least at first) and limited in the number of samples that they can test. There is also a time lag between sample collection and its arrival at the lab.

The higher numbers are based on the symptoms presented by the patients and the circumstances surrounding the case, such as recent travel to Mexico, a family member with a verified case of the flu, etc.

Since the disease is often mild, it is a good bet that there are many undiagnosed cases.

[Buzz Clik]

5. ... and the result is differences of a factor of 1000.

WHO underreports, and the rest are massively overreported. And we're supposed to take this conflicting information and pretend we have knowledge.

[cornermouse]

2. re: swine flu

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/30/eveningnews/main4981375.shtml

One thing the CDC has learned in the past week: the virus we've been calling "swine flu" has never been found in pigs.

Shaw says, "We're realizing it's not really accurate. It's a human flu. What more can we say?"



Too few facts and too much panic.

[FarCenter]

3. The genetic material is primarily swine flu

There are 8 segments of RNA that make up the genome. Most of the pieces of the RNA in the viruses in this outbreak are types found in swine flu. The others are types found in human or bird flu. This most probably arises when a pig is infected with two types of flu that contain multiple types of RNA segments. The viruses can swap segment in order to form a new type of flu out of a new combination of the 8 segments.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthomyxoviridae has details of the flu virus structure.