Those who are trying to whistle past the swine flu graveyard....

[Joe the Revelator]

Those who are chalking this swine flu coverage to media hype, media conspiracy, RW conspiracy etc sound just as misinformed and dare I say "dumb" as the Global Warming Deniers.


Just wanted to bring that to your attention as I see thats the way the popular winds are blowing on DU this evening.

[Skittles]

1. I hear you Joe

yes indeed

[Joe the Revelator]

2. There are a lot of things to try to be "Mr. Tough Guy" about

I don't think this is it.

[Skittles]

4. I think people have become complacent due to the bird flu thing

stuff like this can indeed be very, very serious

[Joe the Revelator]

7. Agreed...

I wish people would understand that we dodged a bullet with the Bird Flu, as we have done a number of times, but its better to be informed and on guard for it then to not be aware of it at all.

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. Well we are having a problem

the WHO has been warning us this is coming since oh at least 1996 (that's the first time I heard about this as a line medic... and other hats)

So every "dud" they get more and more cynical

Of course the WMD lies that led to war do no help...

I mean if they lied about war? Of course they will lie about this to drive the torture from the front lines

(oh and for those that need it... :sarcasm:)

The other factor is... that most people have no clue about the science behind any of this.

And quite frankly people are scared, so this is to be expected

[depakid]

9. "most people have no clue about the science behind any of this."

I wouldn't say most, but surely the one's running around like their hair's on fire -or on the other side of the emotional spectrum, the folks in stolidly in denial that pandemics can and do occur.

Between the two, I like to think there's a wide majority of reasonable people who are keeping some perspective.

[seemslikeadream]

10. oh I am sure of that no doubt

[depakid]

13. Case in point...

It's actually sort of amusing...when it involves other topics.

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. Wy the US, as I expected, declared the Health National Emergency

I am sure they are also running with their hair on fire and are panicked

This is the first step in an outbreak and I do hope it stays there.

Knowing a little of how those plans were written I am stocking up on canned goods.

Need to anyway for quake preparadness

[bluedawg12]

16. Poeple are scared and conflate other issues and govt lies, BUT, self education is a start

an open mind requires accepting the possibilty that past events will repeat themselves, meaning other pandemics have already occured, in a less mobile world with a smaller population to spread disease.

Simply because no one knows when it will happen and that it has not happened yet does not remove the risk of it happening.

There is already another fact established, people are infected getting sick and dying, the only other question now is, how far and fast and to what extent will it spread. Because, it has already spread.

The job for science is to remain alert and attuned and to be pre-emptive. This is one instance where pre-emptive safety measures are a good thing.

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/352/18/1839

"An influenza pandemic has always been a great global infectious-disease threat. There have been 10 pandemics of influenza A in the past 300 years. A recent analysis showed that the pandemic of 1918 and 1919 killed 50 million to 100 million people,1 and although its severity is often considered anomalous, the pandemic of 1830 through 1832 was similarly severe — it simply occurred when the world's population was smaller. Today, with a world population of 6.5 billion — more than three times that in 1918 — even a relatively "mild" pandemic could kill many millions of people.

Influenza experts recognize the inevitability of another pandemic. When will it begin? Will it be caused by H5N1, the avian influenzavirus strain currently circulating in Asia? Will its effect rival that of 1918 or be more muted, as was the case in the pandemics of 1957 and 1968? Nobody knows."

[alfredo]

3. Hand washing and minimize exposure is how I am dealing with the news.

[Joe the Revelator]

6. All I'm doing is keeping a wary eye on developments

I'm not saying we need to start wearing masks or anything, I just think the overblown machismo that some feel the need to use when it comes to stuff like this is detrimental.

Step 1- Realize Pandemic Flu are real.
Step 2- Realize that we are past due for one.
Step 3- Understand that this scenario is how a Pandemic Flu begins
Step 4- Understand that this scenario has played out a lot between 1918 and now without a Pandemic Flu manifesting
Step 5- Keep your eye on whatever news source you want, but just follow a long

Claiming that its a RW conspiracy or overblown media hype is missing the mark.

[seemslikeadream]

11. sounds like really good steps to me

[alfredo]

14. It gives me a good reason to not have the nephews over. BTW, I think

it was all caused by Susan Boyle.

[bluedawg12]

17. That's sound advice. No one knows how many people will get sick, but we do know

that there are people who have gotten sick and have died and the same strain of virus is now up as far as NY, in ths US.

I think that is worth monitoring.

[Mojorabbit]

45. It is amazing to me to see how

it has spread to so many countries across the world so quickly though I shouldn't be surprised with air travel so prevalent.

[etherealtruth]

33. My feelings exactly

Hopefully, this will not develop into a pandemic .... but, I sure as hell appreciate the information.

Can you imagine the (justifiable) outrage if "we" were not warned/informed.

[Maru Kitteh]

69. Influenza is pandemic and holds the possibility of increased mortality every year.

Actually it's globally endemic with the exception of Antartica so there is at least a bit of "hype" involved with the novelty of this flu. What's good about that?

1. People are reminded to WASH THEIR DAMN HANDS, something they should be doing anyway.
2. People are reminded to stay at home if they are sick.
3. People are reminded to keep their children at home when ill.
4. Hopefully it will bring some attention to plain old normal mundane H1N2 flu.

All of your steps are completely appropriate.

I don't even bother with the tinfoil brigade any more. The biology of viral drift and shift is so simple it should be understandable to even the bottom of any high school graduation class - but the tinfoil brigade has no use for science.

[Mojorabbit]

71. A good place to follow

the news is http://www.newfluwiki2.com/frontPage.do run by a good liberal Dem MD who also posts on daily kos. You won't find better news coverage than there. I agree with you totally.

[islandgirl808]

8. i got my bubble ready

on a serious note:
always wash hands
keep exposure to a minimum
take your vitamins and minerals

:)

[omega minimo]

12. Plastic Sheeting and Duct Tape!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[CanSocDem]

15. And massive doses of SURE-CURE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Joe the Revelator]

31. GLOBAL WARMING IS BULLSHIT!!@!!!!!!

[Blackhatjack]

18. I'm amazed that so many cannot abide even a sublime suggestion that they pay attention to the news..

Some people would rather they not be warned about breaking news that could affect them.

They are happier if we just let them live in bliss, totally unaware of any danger that they could watch and be prepared to meet.

[havocmom]

34. That would be fine with me IF we could also get them to stay the fuck home when they are sick

Schools here reward (fewer required tests) kids who come to school sick; punish (more tests)the kids who stay home when they are sick. Result: school gets a bit more $$ but more kids get sick and janitor/teachers have to mop a lot of puke off the floors.

Parents don't want to keep kids home as they can't always stay home to take care of them/bosses get nasty or no paid time off means work or be homeless

Too many people WITH sick leave are so bored with their own company they can't stand to be home alone.

They ALL come to visit me at my job because I am so sweet 'n stuff that sharing their bug with me is more fun than staying the fuck home when they are too sick to work.

:grr:

[davsand]

19. I plan to stay informed, but I also am not in a panic yet.

Fear really does lead people to make bad decisions, and so does a lack of information. I try and avoid both whenever possible.

I think the media is probably gonna keep this in front of us all for a long time to come--irrespective of how it all plays out--because they sell advertising by keeping people watching. I also think that if we pay attention to what the scientists tell us we can probably navigate this with a lot better outcome than the doom criers are projecting.

In a worst case setting it is possible that we will have widespread illness, and some loss of life--especially given the lack of access to health care that so many Americans are dealing with. I also think that if we have a serious widespread epidemic, you will see the ERs become the place where flu treatment is sought with most other non-critical ER visits seriously reduced. There WILL be long wait times--but there currently are already...

Having said that, I also think that our advances in medicine in the last 25 years are such that we can provide a lot better supportive care while the flu virus runs its course. There were a LOT of people who died in prior epidemics due to secondary causes rather than the actual flu virus itself, and I do think those secondary infections and cases of dehydration can and will be reduced in any pandemic that erupts in today's world.

For me, it isn't a Red Alert state. It is more of a yellow.

YMMV.


Laura

[havocmom]

35. Someone posted link for CDC info. I signed up for updates on several topics

Very helpful personally and for my job, which is to bring people information. I may start printing out bulletins on flu and posting them.

[Mojorabbit]

47. I think it will be the opposite

from what the plans I have seen say. Flu will not be treated in the ER's which would be overwhelmed within weeks if we get a severe pandemic with a high fatality rate. Schools will be used to house flu patients. I think we have something like only a paltry hundred thousand ventilators in the country and there will not be the staff to monitor people on them due to illness. Hospitals will be used for non flu emergency cases.

[AllentownJake]

20. What the fuck do you want people to do about "Swine Flu?"

Seriously, what am I supposed to do? Its not like an STD where I can take a precaution not to get it :shrug:

Every 2 years a so there is this new super bug that is going to kill everyone. Every 2 years people go nuts and every 2 years nothing really big happens.

[Joe the Revelator]

30. Avoid crowded places, wash your hands, wear a mask if it comes to your town

there are a lot of things you can do instead of acting like an ass.

[drchoice22]

65. And stay away from Mexicans, right?

Wear a mask?? like a gas mask? get real man take a breath.

[lunatica]

21. Should we run screaming in terror into the night you think?

Let's all run into our atomic war shelters. What do you suggest we do to stave off the coming pandemic? If it happens we're all pretty much doomed, or do you think they have a vaccine available for us little people so we can stop all that whistling?

[Mari333]

41. yes, we should, naked. all of us.

It would liven things up on an otherwise boring day.

[drchoice22]

53. Well, lets be honest... not ALL of us should be running naked

I mean... yeah... bad thoughts.. bad thoughts...

[galileoreloaded]

22. So many here sound like the realtors, MBA's and the like..

that I deal with every day. "I won't lose MY job", "I will always find work", "they're not making any more land", "not MY house", "not in THIS country, we are so advanced".

It is much harder to think than call up previous experience for a potential outcome. That's why most people don't really think well.

Oh well, good old mother nature is pretty good at shaking the complacency out of folks. In the case of pandemics, about every 30 years, and bad ones every 90. Hmm, lets see, how far back was 1918.........

Has anyone here actually READ Mandelbrot????

We control so precious little, yet think we yield such great power.

[northzax]

28. and you know what?

statistically, they won't. right now the odds are, at worst, 1-10. while those might not be great gambling odds, it's still hardly a certainty.

there really isn't anything I can do about a pandemic outbreak of flu, is there? wash my hands, drink plenty of water. that's about it. so why spend a lot of energy worrying about it?

[drchoice22]

68. How many people die, worldwide from the regular flu?

More than this flu, I'm willing to bet.

[Joe the Revelator]

70. You need to look at mortality rates per instance of the flu so far

Of course you know that, doctor

[bluedawg12]

23. Just listening to a White House Presser about this pre- pandemic.

I hear thoughtful discussion and no panic.

Unlike chimperator, who would be chopping weeds on his ranch, this President is a problem solver.

They are making plans and monitoring.

They call it a pre-pandemic.

That's a relief.

[nadinbrzezinski]

25. Yeah it is phase one, early phase one

and nothing to be too concerned about YET

[bluedawg12]

26. I'm not concerned when I have someone in charge and an administration that is paying attention.

The best term is, "pre-pandemic."

Let's hope it never goes beyond that phase, at the same time, preparedness and thoughtful analysis from a President and his administration is a welcome relief after the abject stupidity of the last eight years of dark ages.

[nadinbrzezinski]

27. Yep but we also have a lot of people still whistling past the graveyard

I should go get showered, and get my canned goods (I need them anyway for quake preparedness)

Damn when I know how these plans were written

[bluedawg12]

29. I think we have been poisoned by the rightwing anti-science ethos.

Also, it takes a little effort to learn the intricacies of these issues.
Virology doesn't just roll off of people's tongues in everyday conversation. I just learned a ton from reading people that know a lot more than me, right here on DU!

So, people understandably get confused, are suspicious of government after the lies of the last eight years, we have "crisis burn out" and my theory is we are not over the events of 9-11, because that was followed by crisis after crisis. So, many people retreat to a "don't give a darn" about another crisis.

Oddly, the rightwing used antiscience notions to unite people around social-religious themes like intelligent design, the left wing falls into that trap by believing that either nothing is really a crisis ( levee's we don't need no stinking levee's!) or that everything is a corporate conspiracy or some other exotic conspiracy theory.

Occam's razor. Start with the simplest explanation and work down the list. Viruses are real, they cause infections, and there is an outbreak currently. That's a fact. No one knows if it will be a pandemic, but it does have potential for that.

The white house briefing set just the right tone, IMHO.

In the meantime, a stock of food and water ( and pet food!) is never a bad idea. Our food supply in grocery stores is less than a 3 day stock. So, why not be informed and if if the need arises be stocked up. Or not. But at least folks can make an informed decision why or why not.

But there is nothing wrong with telling the truth about current events and monitoring them.

:hi:

[Mojorabbit]

50. We are at phast three nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

52. WOW oh yeah I forgot, we have some school districts now closing

[Mojorabbit]

55. Yep

and it looks like more deaths and cases in Mexico. I don't think people here will worry till we start having deaths in this country which I hope won't happen but the cdc says they expect it will.
The last blurb I saw was this.
Mexico health secretary says suspected swine flu cases rise to 1,614 with 103 believed dead, AP reports. 30 suspected cases in Jalisco.

[nadinbrzezinski]

58. Picking up speed

predictable based on the science

Today I met, fer real, a possible candidate for our first deaths.

Joy... that means more self monitoring

Cross my heart, I get sick I will go see the doctor, even if they order me home to quarantine

[Hannah Bell]

81. "suspected" "believed" = not hard numbers. this am there were two "suspected" deaths in californi

turns out, neither even had the flu.

thus the danger in passing off "suspected"/"believed" as though it were real information.

besides which, the numbers you report are not much different from the numbers being bandied yesterday.

[MadHound]

32. Yeah that's what they said about Legionairre Disease deniers

And those who didn't fall for the multitude of other so called potential pandemics of the past thirty years.

Right now, the number of people who have died from swine flu total is less than the number of people who die from seasonal flu in a week. When you start reaching those numbers, then maybe you'll have a case to make. Until then, all you're doing is sowing panic for no good reason.

[nadinbrzezinski]

49. Information equals panic

ok dokie,

I guess Orwell would be proud

[DainBramaged]

36. Nearly 500,000 people died from tobacco last year

shouldn't that concern you? Or how about the nearly 50,000 who died in car crashes? Do they deserve your attention? Or the 20,000+ who died from gun violence, are their lives less valuable?

[Joe the Revelator]

37. This is an extremely flawed comparison you're trying to make

Why should we worry about anything? Something is always nearly as worse!

[DainBramaged]

38. No it isn't, death from tobacco is PREVENTABLE, but of course, it isn't

as dramatic as pig flu, or as sexy to talk about. But that's OK, you keep thinking the way you think.

[Joe the Revelator]

43. Your comparison here is silly

Its not like the fact that tobacco is dangerous is ignored. Hell, I've quit smoking in the last 3 years because of the ad push. But people CHOOSE to smoke cigarettes. People can't really choose to get an airborne virus.

A better comparison would be hurricanes. Why do we ever spend time worrying about forecasting them? More people are killed smoking then from hurricanes. Fuck warning people.

[Texasgal]

39. The regular "flu"

killed 36,000 thousand Americans last year...Just sayin'...

[DainBramaged]

40. They just won't listen, 'regular' flu doesn't have panache.

:hi:

[Joe the Revelator]

42. Or a 7% mortality rate

but by all means, keep sounding like a global warming denier in order to show us all how big your balls are.

[Name removed]

44. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[nadinbrzezinski]

46. You do realize the worst case scenario for this

if this is the real thing, is 500 million people dead world wide, as of 1996, last time I saw the numbers modeled by the WHO

After all, what would they know?

And those are expected to happen mostly in developing world nations

Now half a billion people from a single cause in a single year will be a historic event

Not that the anti science folks round these parts get it

[Name removed]

48. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[drchoice22]

51. Oh come on

Is the mexican boogey man going to come and give you the sicky piggy virus?

[nadinbrzezinski]

60. Do viruses see a border and go.. nope cannot go across?

Rhetorical question

After all responsible actors, read the Feds, the WHO and others are actually acting on it

Or are you saying this is a conspiracy to scare you

[drchoice22]

77. I think it's the media (ding dling dling) searching for a GASP breaking story

sorry it took me long to write that because I had to catch my breath.

[MrSlayer]

54. Yeah because they were so right about SARS and Bird Flu and a host of others.

There is no evidence that this "pandemic" is any more than the last few that were supposed to devastate us. It's hype and the usual panic mongers are buying right into it.

[DainBramaged]

56. They are multiplying like a virus.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[drchoice22]

57. Can we refer to it as the "sicky piggy" virus?

[MrSlayer]

72. If it pleases you to do so.

By all means.

[Joe the Revelator]

59. We were lucky to have dodged the bird flu and SARS...how many times do you think we can get lucky?

One thing is for certain, and not arguable; we are past due for a Pandimic Flu. There will be another one, its a question of when.


But I guess, to you, the fact that there's only been tremors lately on the San Andreas Fault means that its safe to build a house there.

[drchoice22]

61. I'm not saying that, all im saying is this is the modern world, with medicine, etc

a 'pandemic' isn't going to happen.

[Joe the Revelator]

63. Then you have proven you have zero idea about what you're talking about.

People still die of "regular" flu at alarming intervals. What makes you think that a Pandemic Flu would be controlled? In fact, are resilliance on antibiotics could be a further downfall if this were to reach Pandemic levels.

[nadinbrzezinski]

66. The world health organization disagrees with you

in fact, they expect the worst of this to happen in places that are developing... worst case numbers are 500 million dead

Those are worst case numbers

Personally I will treat the WHO a little more seiously

[drchoice22]

78. Do you really think i'm just whistling past the graveyard?

I don't buy this for a second. I think the media is just looking for a story.

I mean it is of course POSSIBLE so was bird flu and everything else.

Crap it is POSSIBLE that an asteroid could wipe us all out tomorrow.

and the world asteroid organization thinks you should take them a little more seriously.

[nadinbrzezinski]

85. And it is also possible that we have had

pandemics occur every so often, with striking regularity

1918, 1957, 1968 now that makes a trend

Of course that is not even counting historical accounts going all the way back to at least the 1500s...

(I don't include the black death since it is a different critter... aka disease element)

[nadinbrzezinski]

62. Just because Peter (WHO) has been screaming about the WOLF (PANDEMIC)

since 1996 at least does not mean that sooner or later the wolf will not come around

In fact, they have been screaming because we are overdue

Or are you telling me we imagined 1918, 1957 and 1968?

Predictive on the science, given we have been able to track these things in historical records to antiquity, they happen... regularly

Now please point to me exactly when in the other ones did the US Government declare a health emergency?

I'll eat my words when you can point to that... because they DID NOT

Also do point to me when was the last time SCHOOLS were closed over a mere scare

(RIght now school districts are starting to close... just like oh Mexico)

[FedUpWithIt All]

64. Death toll in Mexico at 103 according to Reuters.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N26462487.htm

[nadinbrzezinski]

67. I was hoping they were starting to go down

damn... they are accelerating

[BlooInBloo]

74. omg!

[nadinbrzezinski]

76. You have been denying there is a problem

and nothing personal, even if this wiggled it's hand at you, you'd still deny it

My apologies to mixed metaphors

[bobbert]

83. only 26 have been confirmed from the same strain

there is no proof yet that all of those people died of the same strain of the virus. right now it is still only a locally spreading disease. it seems like # of cases has been going down, not up. Although the disease has spread quickly, and to young adults, there's no proof anywhere that this has higher than the typical 1.5% mortality rate of a typical flu... it's just different. I'll pass it on as more serious than a regular flu when people who live in a clean city with access to good health care have a problem (not poor people in Mexico City, where 1/2 of the city hasn't had running water for days prior to this outbreak).

[bobbert]

86. Lack of water in Mexico City

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=331618&CategoryId=14091

Posted April 12, 2009, before any of this swine flu became news.
------------------------
MEXICO CITY – The water supply in the metropolitan zone of Mexico City has recovered to the 60 percent level after a three-day suspension, but 1.5 million residents are still without water, officials said on Sunday.
------------------------
This I think is a big cause of the spread of the disease and the high # of deaths from flu-like symptoms (remember only a fraction of the deaths have confirmed swine flu virus present).

[itsrobert]

73. Get a grip.

Take a cold shower and snap out of it.

[Joe the Revelator]

75. Yes, ignoring things always makes it better.

Furthermore, read the damn thread. I'm not running around with my hair on fire, I'm simply stating that to act like this isn't something to monitor, or part of some conspiracy is idiotic.

[drchoice22]

79. Thank you. good lord guys....

[DearAbby]

80. Lets keep in mind

every year in the U.S. something like 30,000 to 50,000 die from seasonal flu.... worth noting to keep things in perspective.

[Dr Fate]

82. Damn- and just when we were getting over the SARS and Avian Flu epidemics.

n/t

[Mike 03]

84. I agree. And don't try to impress them with the facts, or why this strain

is different than most of the recent common influenzas.

But this attitude prevailed here back when we discussed the Avian flu as well.

I'm sorry I didn't see your post earlier so I could rec it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

87. This attitude also existed in the early course of the economic

crisis

And it is the same folks mostly