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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 10:53 PM
Original message
5000 troops from NATO for 'Afghan elections' is a signal that Obama is on his own
Edited on Sat Apr-04-09 10:58 PM by bigtree
. . . in the fight against al-Qaeda that he identified as his primary reason for continuing and escalating the military mission in Afghanistan.

I think it's significant and revealing that the NATO 'allies' have lost faith and will to continue battling Taliban resistance fighters indefinitely, and are focused instead on using their resources and influence to provide economic and humanitarian aid and assistance.

Despite the administration's public pleasure about the outcome of the NATO summit, I think the tepid response to President Obama's requests for more troops is a clear rebuke of any ambition the administration or the Pentagon may have had to keep the weakening international coalition in Afghanistan on board for any long-term military offensive.

I do believe the president will find a great reservoir of support for diplomatic initiatives and actions, but I predict declining support for his Afghanistan mission - both at home and abroad - if the consequences and effects of the military operations continue to dominate the landscape.

There will be elections held under the increased occupation by the U.S.-dominated NATO forces. The Pentagon has promised to increase their military aggression in the south and east of Afghanistan, and has predicted a resulting increase in U.S. deaths. Aid and humanitarian organizations have also predicted an increase in civilian deaths as a result of the escalation and assaults.

from Relief Web: http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/OYAH-7QRPXC?OpenDocument

"The International Rescue Committee and 15 other relief organizations operating in Afghanistan sent a letter to NATO delegates this week, urging their forces to clearly separate their military mission from the humanitarian efforts to help protect Afghan civilians and aid workers from the predicted reprisals. The aid groups stressed that, "military forces, including NATO, endanger the civilians they aim to protect and contravene international law when they do not clearly identity themselves and inadvertently or deliberately blur the lines between military and humanitarian activities."

"The IRC, Oxfam and other humanitarian aid groups in Afghanistan also issued a new report this week, "Caught in Conflict (http://reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/MVDU-7QR4ZD?OpenDocument&rc=3&cc=afg)," which warns that the planned troop surge in Afghanistan could increase civilian suffering and outlines how NATO and other international military forces should transform the way they operate in Afghanistan.

The elections that the increased NATO forces are intended to defend are supposed to represent the unification of the Afghan people, as much as they are intended to consolidate the power and authority of the central government in Kabul over them. Yet, it's a dubious prospect for the direction from the assumed leadership in Kabul to translate into any concrete adherence to that rule, or fealty from the provinces and tribes which make up the majority of the enormous and diverse country.

It's notable that, despite the determination to prop-up the Afghan regime, the administration has abandoned any of the Bush-speak about 'creating democracy' in Afghanistan; focusing instead on their threat-scenario of the Taliban regaining power and the curious claim that al-Qaeda somehow would be able to 'plot' from Afghanistan (presumably better there, than from anywhere else) if we relinquished our precarious military posts.

For the near future, it appears that the conflict between the NATO forces and the Taliban resistance in Afghanistan will remain at a stalemate of line-on-a-map moving military assaults and the predictable resistance and retaliation from the militarized resistance. That military mission will undoubtedly be represented as a defense of the government in Kabul against elements of resistance that the U.S. will insist is somehow a threat which is akin to that of the fugitive perpetrators of the 9-11 killings.

There is a self-perpetuating nature to our nation's grudging military mission which the president outlined in the presentation of his Afghan plan. In our self-serving, flailing military defense of the government in Kabul, our military forces generate even more resistance from the population of Afghanistan to their contrived regime. The military offensive against the exiled Taliban fighters in the south and east fuels and furthers the ranks of those who identify their resistance with the most prominent organizations pledged to the destruction of the invading and occupying NATO forces.

It's no surprise to find our allies more inclined to diplomacy than to the indefinite and uncertain militarism. Britain has announced their intention to open talks with Hezbollah and the Taliban, while acknowledging the limits of the ultimate effectiveness of military force. Our neighbor, Canada, has made similar declarations about the limits of their own faith and intention to continue committing their nation's defenders to the U.S. intransigence in Afghanistan.

We can only hope that our NATO allies' belated recognition of the relative impotence of their fighting forces in 'securing' Afghanistan will infect and alter the Obama administration's stubborn adherence to their Pentagon-driven rationale. In the face of their dismal response to the invitation to a long-term commitment to the military mission the president's Pentagon describes as a "long fight" in Afghanistan, I'm left to wonder where the administration gets their optimism.
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mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 10:57 PM
Response to Original message
1. it sure is
no amount of presidential star power is going to make Europeans waste more lives in this foolish war
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 10:59 PM
Response to Original message
2. 5000 troops represents a major diplomatic coup.
This looks like the type of "analysis" that was conceived in anticipation of a failure, and hastily reworked in the face of an unexpected success.
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mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:01 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. not when he asked for combat troops
Edited on Sat Apr-04-09 11:20 PM by mix
How then would this be "a major diplomatic coup" when Obama did not get what he wanted?
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:07 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. What he wanted was additional European support.
A combat troop is slightly better than a non-combat troop, but every European who is training Afghan troops or patrolling the streets of Kabul is an American who can go home for recuperation.
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mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:09 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. you're tripping
Edited on Sat Apr-04-09 11:10 PM by mix
Obama wanted cannon fodder, he was refused.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:11 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Obama got what he wanted. Claiming he didn't is wishful thinking.
Combat troops would have a nice symbolism, but what he wanted was for Europe to ease the strain on the American military's resources, and it agreed to do so. Manpower is, to an extent, fungible.
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mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:18 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. NATO, the Brits etc.
have been sending signals for the last year that Afghanistan is a failed mission and a radically different DIPLOMATIC approach was needed. To his credit, Obama is pursuing diplomacy in this area. He still thinks a military solution is possible however, a position resoundingly rejected by the European refusal to send more combat troops.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7982821.stm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/04/obama-welcomes-albania-cr_n_183112.html
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Again: If NATO wanted to tell Obama they weren't on board,
they wouldn't have reversed their Bush-era stance and offered this increased level of support. Claiming that increased European military commitment is a "resounding rejection" of Obama's multifaceted plan for Afghanistan is almost embarrassingly at odds with common sense.
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #7
21. I soooo love Pizza...Particularly after a long day of trolling for chumps.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:02 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. projecting?
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mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:06 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. spinning is more like it n/t
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. It is obvious that you are spinning......
Because if they wanted to send a real message as you suggest,
he wouldn't have gotten a damn thing.

Half empty glass folks are cynical doomsdayer who enjoy calling the game at the top of the first inning. Gives them something to do.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:14 PM
Response to Reply #5
10. Spin? C'mon. If Europe wanted to send "a message," they'd have given
Edited on Sat Apr-04-09 11:15 PM by Occam Bandage
Obama the same message they gave Bush: no more troops. If they wanted to rebuke him and tell him they weren't on board, they'd start withdrawing troops. To claim that Europe's agreement to escalate their involvement in Afghanistan is somehow a loss for Obama is absolutely mad.
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mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:20 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. the European troops have a very specific role:
monitoring elections and training police
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:25 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Freeing up more American resources for combat alongside European combat troops.
How, exactly, is that bad for Obama again?
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mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:27 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. I don' think of the world in terms of what's "bad for Obama."
So I would not know.

It is bad however for American policy that our key allies are not willing to throw more bodies into the fight.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:30 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. A slightly different stance from your full-throated agreement
Edited on Sat Apr-04-09 11:33 PM by Occam Bandage
to the claim that it means "Obama is on his own." I note there's no "I don't think of the world in terms of Obama" in reply #1.

And Europe is agreeing to throw more bodies into the fight. Five thousand of them. That's what this is about.
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mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:39 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. Have our allies in Afghanistan abandoned us?
No. But they clearly are not willing to put more troops into combat roles and they will continue to press for a diplomatic solution.

Let's hope our government listens.

peace
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. I also hope that we see the diplomatic/humanitarian progress necessary
to redeem America's mission in Afghanistan.
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mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. I do not believe our mission is redeemable.
Thus my pessimism and skepticism about our continued involvement in Afghanistan.

It's empire all over again.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. I think reasonable people can disagree on that. nt
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mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-05-09 12:01 AM
Response to Reply #20
23. Of course we can.
That's how we find solutions.

Thank you. I enjoyed that tete-a-tete.
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Joe Chi Minh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-05-09 06:35 AM
Response to Reply #10
26. No, That's not how international diplomacy works, least of all among allies,
Edited on Sun Apr-05-09 06:37 AM by Joe Chi Minh
reluctant to show anything but mutual goodwill. It's not like mathematics. Negatives are attenuated by indirections, not expressed by full-on refusals.

Obama had travelled over from the US on a goodwill mission, but of course, with the best will in the world, that is not a basis for a major conciliatory change in foreign policy by the Europeans. As "Pop-Eye" Sarky put it, again somewhat elliptically, they (the French) had made that (contrary) decision some time ago. Do you really think the European leaders would have been so crass and insensitive to Obama's problems and his public image in the US as to have roundly refused?

The fact that the rejection of his proposals re Afghanistan is disputed in the US, shows that the tactful way in which it was couched, was by no means groundless. Indeed, to view it as a failure, is to miss the point. The prospect of European acquiescence was notional, at best. I don't even think Obama would favour it if he were the virtual plenipotentiary Bush was; but he's not an aspiring despot, and prefers "softly, softly", to confrontation. In other words, he's very much the European diplomat.
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Tierra_y_Libertad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-04-09 11:59 PM
Response to Original message
22. The Europeans have learned from Iraq that neo-colonialism is a failure.
And, the European NATO bosses know that the European people have wised up to fighting America's wars for hegemony.
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leftstreet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-05-09 12:21 AM
Response to Reply #22
24. European leaders remember the massive Iraq antiwar protests
Sadly, Americans seem to have forgotten them.
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DallasNE Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-05-09 12:23 AM
Response to Original message
25. I Believe They Call This A Fig Leaf
It does help buy some time although I don't know how much good buying time is going to do. Karzi sees nothing wrong with women being treated as property, allowing them to be raped. Why do we want to prop up such a political leader? Let's focus on the tribal areas along the border and make a big push to get bin Laden and then get out.
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L0oniX Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-05-09 09:39 AM
Response to Original message
27. WTF is NATO over there for? Hey ...clue one ..the Atlantic is over this way folks.
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Political Heretic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-05-09 09:46 AM
Response to Original message
28. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Obama asked for exactly this kind of support.....
..when he announced his afghan policy. I thought he said he wanted multilateral support for work beyond direct combat. He certainly outlined a very comprehensive strategy for the region that went far beyond simply calling it some "war escalation" - focusing on non-combat training, rebuilding of infrastructure, diplomacy and partnership etc.

I just described his plan - I'm not sure I'm on board with it. Prior to hearing his plan, I was firmly in the bring them all home now camp. And I still think I'm there - except for the fact that the destabilization of Pakistan scares the shit out of me. Anyway... my only point is I didn't interpret this as some major loss or rebuk for Obama and I'm confused as to why you did.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-05-09 12:03 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. all of that doesn't change the fact
. . . that we're increasingly on our own for the primary reason the president says he's continuing the military mission there - the prime justification for increasing our forces and remaining - the flailing campaign against al-Qaeda.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-05-09 09:24 PM
Response to Original message
30. I'm glad to see that our NATO allies have lost the faith to continue with this
I hope it wears off on our President before too long.
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