New York Race Watched for More Than Results

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New York Race Watched for More Than Results
By Emily Cadei, CQ Staff


Voters in upstate New York will pick a new congressman Tuesday in a race that has been described as a litmus test, a referendum and a bellwether for Democratic agendas and Republican political fortunes.

Residents of the 20th District — which encompasses all or part of 10 suburban and rural counties along New York’s Eastern border — have watched an intense campaign pitting veteran Republican Assemblyman Jim Tedisco against Democrat and political newcomer Scott Murphy.

A mere 10 weeks after Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed to the Senate, the race to succeed her in the House has taken on characteristics of a national gauge for President Obama’s economic policies and for national Republicans’ performance in the wake of a disastrous 2008 election. Much of the debate has centered on the $787 billion stimulus package (PL-115) — whether it is the best way to turn around the district’s depressed economy — or whether a vote for the stimulus was a vote for bonuses paid out by insurance giant American International Group Inc., which has been propped up with billions of dollars in taxpayer funds.

But both sides agree that, ultimately, the race will come down to who is most successful at turning out the vote.

There are more than 477,000 registered voters in the district, with Republicans enjoying a 70,000 voter registration advantage over Democrats. Independents make up a quarter of the voting population.

In 2008, Gillibrand defeated Republican Sandy Treadwell by nearly 80,000 votes out of 335,000 cast. She was appointed to the Senate in January to fill the seat when Hillary Rodham Clinton became secretary of State.

Counting the Votes

Turnout is expected to be low, given that it is a special election at an unusual time and there are no national races on the ballot.

If the vote is close, it could take weeks to sort out a winner, said John Conklin, director of public information at the New York Board of Elections.

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