The future will look like this:

[readmoreoften]

How do you see the future going:

Deflationary Spiral: Like now. Low velocity of money in the system. Value of currency goes up. Prices drop. Unemployment rises. People buy less. Prices drop more. Companies fold. Unemployment rises. Rinse and Repeat. Like the Great Depression. Those in debt are screwed. Including nations that owe a lot of money, who now have low tax revenue, and could default on loans (unless they print more money.) In other words, a loaf of bread costs a dime but you're unemployed and upsidedown on your mortgage even though you bought your house in 1990, never missed a payment, and never used it as an ATM. You hide your cash savings under a mattress. The value of a dollar keeps rising.

Hyperinflation: Like the Weimar Republic or Argentina in 2002. The velocity of money in the system speeds up. Perhaps the dollar "brand" is downgraded and the currency is dumped for another. Perhaps the government keeps printing money to the point where the value is diluted against products/commodities and/or other currencies or there is a crisis of confidence in its value. Value of the currency goes down. Prices go up. People buy immediately in fear of further devaluation. More money floods the market from all the purchases. Value of the currency goes down. Prices go up since businesses know the cash will lose value by the next day. Traditionally, local production increases as the private and govt sectors employ people to fill gaps opened from the fact that last year's "Cheap Chinese Crap" is now more expensive than your college education. In other words, you're employed and making $500,000 a year! You've paid off all your student loans and your mortgage in a single paycheck! Too bad a loaf of bread costs $2,000, gas hit the $500 a gallon mark, and your youngest child is visibly malnourished. You hide the bread under your mattress. No--scratch that--you sold your mattress for bread and sleep on that.

Other possibilities: Stagflation (like the 1970s gas crisis, inflation plus economic stagnation), Biflation (prices of commodities like copper, oil, food, and gold skyrocket while prices of TVs, new cars, housing plummets.)

Thanx for playing.

[readmoreoften]

1. Other is acceptable. Just post "Other" and your prediction. Thanks!

:hi:

[readmoreoften]

2. Kick for early morning crowd.

thanx.

[izzie]

3. I think we will move into another age. Things will look different

It is a turning of the times in how we live. It goes slow and moves into new ways over years. We will get rid of,slowly, what did not work and try new things. It is our history. Just as we see the Middle East fighting any thing new with guns we will do it within our laws. I should say that I hope we will do it within the laws we have. The great change from about 1850-1914 in the rest of the world was done with guns. But our society changed just the same.

[readmoreoften]

4. I wish I had your optimism, Izzie.

Love that name, buy the way. Always wished my name was Isabelle so it could be my nickname! :hi:

[izzie]

5. It is really my old cats name. Yar I always see the pony in the room

It is a way of life for me. I can not wait to get up in the morning to find out what happened while I did that silly thing like sleep. I have always been that way. I do not see it as a bad thing it is just not going to be te same. Heck I would not want to go back to 1930's when I was born as we have moved to better things and kept some of the nice things we had. It is a way of life and change can always be better. Now if you came from Czar's Russia to USSR you may not think like that but just look at the rest of the world and how much easier it is to live than in the 1930's or go back to say 1850's. We always move on and hope to keep what we like and dump what does not work. Right now we are having troulbe dumping things as it worked for a few, just as Russia under the Czar's, Europe in this days pre-1914, and Asia under the Brits for India, and the rest under European control, and those people do not want to see it change. When a few control police, army and money it is hard to tear it our of their control. Since 2860's we have been doing it under laws and I hope it stays that way. Lets work on the laws so the general pop. can be protected.

[readmoreoften]

6. The early 20th century was indeed violently passionate with full-spectrum politics.

It's nice to hear the opinions of someone with such a long history! :)

[readmoreoften]

7. Good god. Y'all folks are scaring me.

:scared:

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

8. None of the above

We are in the midst of creating a whole new way of thinking and living in the world. What will come of it will be far different than any of your selections.

[FarLeftRage]

10. I agree

This combined with other factors, will certainly bring to a whole new set of circumstances that will be a big part of life in the not-so-distant future.

[KatyMan]

11. Yes,

Robert Heinlein said something to the effect of science fiction writers were good at predicting rockets and cars, but no one predicted the traffic jam or the shopping mall. I'm sure I'm misremembering, but the point I'm trying to make is that change happens in strange ways, and we can't always see or predict what form it will take.

[readmoreoften]

12. Care to describe? Precipitating events for such a major change?

Time frame? Sounds positive.

[myrna minx]

18. I agree with you. I think we are learning a hard valuable lesson about debt, finances

and what it is like to live within your means. I think we are on the brink of a whole new way of living in the world with respect to energy, money and international relations. I'm actually optimistic, and ironically this couldn't have come about without the abysmal policies of the past 30 years, brought to a climax by the horrendous Bushco.

[readmoreoften]

19. But the banks and criminals on Wall Street are still selling CDS and naked shorting as we type.

I hesitate to blame this on the consumption habits of average Americans. Much of the time we were strong-armed into over-consumption (i.e. "consumption is patriotic after 9-11", you need a cell-phone and internet to hold most jobs now, the cost of housing skyrocketed as real wages declined)

We're not in this mess because of greedy American workers "living beyond their means", we're in this mess because Wall Street has engaged in so much crime that the system has over 60 trillion dollars circulating within it from fraudulent transactions that don't have the money to cash out. That number is higher than the GDP of every nation in the world combined.

If we were in a non-capitalist economy, we'd have different options. But a global economic crash under capitalism means no money to study green energy alternatives at universities, no money to keep Venus above water, people dying for lack of medical treatment, the elderly losing their pensions. History shows that unrest can lead to populist shifts to the left and the right. Revolutionary change generally takes revolutionary effort. Reactionary change is also a strong possibility. In fact, revolutionary shifts to the left are always under significant pressure from reactionary forces.

I was in Europe with a middle-class Argentine professional photographer during the hyperinflation crisis of 2002. He couldn't get home. His elderly parents life-savings, the equivalent of $26,000, dropped to 10% of its value in a matter of days. His father died. His girlfriend was forced to be among the 1000+ mobs rushing into supermarkets to get food before it disappeared. A few people would be shot by the police as "dissuasion". I tried to console him that a 3 in 1000 was good odds in her favor. He was stranded. His card no longer worked at the hotel, so he had to sleep on the floor until he could get to his flight home. He didn't have enough exchanged currency to eat or get to the airport and his home currency was approaching devaluation. Another friend of mine in NO had her neighbor die in her arms after he was shot in the chest. A cop finally made the scene an hour later. No ambulance available.

Optimism is fine if you have a plan or if you're engaged in a political struggle. Getting out of the path of a hurricane is a good idea, but being optimistic about the future is good. Being optimistic about the hurricane and partying at your buddy's house on the island is an invitation to tragedy.

[myrna minx]

22. I am so sorry and horrified about what happened to your friend and his family. I'm stunned.

I'm a healthy cynic, and I in no way believe the near economic collapse of our country was brought about by average Americans, because we know it is due to the neo-robber barons, but I do think that we are entering a new era of accountability and responsibility. I'm not naive to think that these bastards aren't going to grab their trillions and go down without a fight, but I believe that there is a shift in the average person's attitude about what truly matters versus wistful aspirations for base greed which has been celebrated and sold to us for the last 30 years. My evidence is purely anecdotal, but when I read that people are paying down their debts in haste (myself included), and are finally starting to save for the first time in nearly 20 years, I believe this is a large testament to where we are heading. Notice how crass the financial elite's greed and decadence is sparking outrage and disgust and we Americans find it unacceptable to allow these bastards to commit their all legal crimes on our dime?

I know you are speaking of the greater financial picture, and perhaps we will go from deflation to hyper inflation (if I have a magic 8 ball, because after all, who knows?), but I think we Americans are poised to change our outlook and hold these crooks accountable, because we are doing all we can to get our own houses in order. I think were are spending at our local shops and trying to buy American where ever possible, to help support our local communities and help our neighbor keep their job. I even purchaced a CSA share to buy from a local farmer for organic, inexpensive food.

I got myself into a financial mess, due to education and credit card expenses, but I can tell you that I have halved my debt and am on my way of being out of debt within two years. I am really proud that I was able to get myself back on track, and I am not alone. Many of us are hurting, and with our change from the perspective of everyone for themselves to we're all in this mess together shift, we can do wonders.

I think you will find the middle short essay interesting,

http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/09/the-new-frugality-no-passing-fad/

Snip--

Americans are once again aware of the importance of consumer demand now that we’re in recessionary times. Indeed, in recent months, shopping has been cast as something akin to political action.

This is nothing new. The attempt to turn economic clout into political power has been an important element of our political culture ever since the American Revolution.

Even as Americans have been enthusiastic shoppers, they have also been avid in coordinating purchasing power for political purposes. No decade in American history saw more consumer activism than the Depression decade of the 1930s.

Although one might think that the intensity of consumer protest would correlate with prosperity, Americans during the Depression engaged in a host of boycotts, large and small, including “Don’t Buy Where You Can’t Work” campaigns of African Americans and the boycott of the products of Nazi Germany organized by some Jewish American organizations.

This upsurge in politicized consumption, which at first might seem counterintuitive (after all, Americans had fewer resources to shop), makes sense when we realize that during economically depressed periods, people are far more aware of the power of their dollars.

[JackRiddler]

9. I have an opinion of what's likely based on history...

and with reluctance I voted accordingly ("deflation" already ongoing, followed by dollar devaluation possibly triggering hyperinflation).

But I know that the future is open, the dimensions of the crisis are unprecedented, and the conditions and potentials of human societies on the planet today, both bad and good, are so radical that very big surprises are certain.

I liked ayeshahaqqiqa's answer (#8) best.

[readmoreoften]

13. I think the swing will be cataclysmic. I could be wrong. Good will come out of it

because this phony system is crashing. Of course unless it morphs into something worse. (For example, a society of completely socialized losses and privatized profits would be worse than the current situation.)

I'm wary about being too utopian over destructive forces, though. "Change" might mean gardens and barter economy for some, and lice and malnutrition for many. Revolution might save us, but I doubt it would be velvety (unless the execs loss everything--which they won't, hell they're still naked shorting and swapping CDS's. Surprising are certain, but if the surprise isn't the world's generic population finding it's courage and will, then I'm thinking it's not going to be a surprise I want to open my eyes for.

Curious: what historical situation are you referring to?

[JackRiddler]

15. Financialization always results in monetary crises.

We're already in "deflation" - a confusing term since it's applied promiscuously to any plunge in price whether of commodities, real estate or paper assets, and it's coming after a period of hyperinflation in asset prices. I've come to see "deflation" as an avoidance term for depression.

Interest claims always grow to overwhelm the real economic growth, until a crisis negates them.

The Mathematical Economics
of Compound Rates of Interest:
A Four-Thousand Year Overview
Part I
by Dr. Michael Hudson, ISLET ©
http://www.michael-hudson.com/articles/financial/070827CompoundInterestCrises.html

Part II
http://www.michael-hudson.com/articles/debt/CompoundInterest2.html

Since the US is choosing endless bailout (effectively of "creditors") and the printing press or massive overloading of the taxpayers, exponential debt growth seems likely to crash the currency down the line, causing massive devaluation as one sees from countless prior examples in countries that have pesos instead of dollars. But dollar value depends on situation relative to other major currencies and sheer ability of system to deliver goods. Everything's already unprecedented in part because the system's so global and so totally centered on dollars.

Otherwise, the real crises of ecology are far greater than their expression so far in the economic subset.

The opportunity for a different way of life (several paths possible) is also manifest.

So one can fight for the good but say little about what happens next.

.

[readmoreoften]

16. I was thinking in traditional terms of hyperinflation.

Not bubble prices, but $1,000,000,000 packs of gum and prices changing by the hour. The sort of spiraling instability that hits impoverished nations "bailed out" by the IMF. Yes, we're definitely in deflated, in a depression.

[JackRiddler]

21. Hyperinflation is also a relative term...

Anything over 20 percent might earn the tag, though it can also mean a million percent or more.

In a depression hyperinflation won't happen from demand. It might happen from devaluation of the dollar, if things go that way. If this were Argentina or some other country that wasn't a superpower, I think we'd have already been judged insolvent and be trading at 10 dollars to the euro. (Those are the historical precedents I'm thinking of: Mexico, Brazil, Italy, etc., not Germany in the 1920s or Zimbabwe today.)

HOWEVER. Since this is the United States, which gets to denominate its debt in its own currency and which has 800 bases around the world and the capacity to blow everyone up and eats 25 percent of all resources and buys all this junk from everywhere and has its corporations everywhere, historical precedents may not apply in the same way. My feeling is that the point will come when too many dollars have been issued, the total debt is so high and the ability of taxpayers to pay it off in a generation is doubted, and China and Japan and EU stop buying t-bills. For all I know, it could start in a few weeks, or take years yet. (I originally expected it in 2005, so I've predicted 10 out of the last 7 recessions.) At that point, the dollar could be radically devalued, triggering commodity price rises that would lead to hyperinflation (more likely the milder sort of 30 percent).

Please note that the government may decide this is in fact the best way to get out from under the debt! Whether it works to improve the situation is another matter.

[KharmaTrain]

14. Uncharted Waters

If anyone can figure this out...you shouldn't be here, you should be making big money. But I don't think there's anyone I know...from President Obama to Paul Krugman to my local banker who knows. Not only do we have a global game at play here, but one in real time that moves faster and faster. Someone says the wrong words and the market tanks another 200 points...or some stop gap move will stabilize things, but to say how things will play out is all but impossible to know. Too many moving parts and most moving in different directions.

Right now I see us heading into deflation and inflation...prices dropping on luxuary goods and non-essential items and services while prices continue to go up on the basics...food, energy and utilities. This squeeze will contract the economy further as more money goes to staying afloat vs. investing and building.

A lot depends on how long it takes for the large banks to be nationalized and the credit markets opened up again. The longer it takes, the deeper in the hole we go.

[upi402]

17. i used to get so much shit for being a gold bug n/t

[zagging]

24. The only mistake you made

was talking about it.

[upi402]

25. i guess so! but it was to friends

friends who just didn't want to think that all the happy crap on the TV News was exactly that.

[Echo In Light]

20. What's the dollar worth during a nuclear winter?

[zagging]

23. I anticipate inflation, not hyper inflation.

While I don't have a lot of dough, I've bet a good chunk of what I do have on subsantial inflation.

I see no way around it.

[defendandprotect]

26. The future is Global Warming . . .