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can be rejuvenated in its present form. What is left is a very angry right wing coalition of fundamentalists, supply siders and neocons. Their solid base is around 30% of the electorate and seems to be shrinking.
The supply siders have really been calling the shots for three decades in the party, paying lip service to the fundamentalists and libertarians. When the neocons got their way under Bush II, they left the supply siders alone and went and did their own thing with the MIC--which was just fine with the supply siders because many of their business interests would make a lot of money off of the neocon agenda.
Both of those groups have basically paid lip service to the fundamentalists. Oh, they say the right kool aid drinking things and smile at them when they come to visit, but they never had any intention of seriously pursuing the evangelical agenda. Besides, where the fuck else were the fundies supposed to go? So Rove and Co. made sure to get a few anti-abortion or anti-gay marriage initiatives on the ballot every two years so the fundies would feel like someone was paying attention.
Meanwhile the libertarians, which for a long time were a core constituency of the GOP basically got kicked to the curb, as Ron Paul can attest. But of the many who considered themselves libertarians, quite a few were pretty selective in what liberties they had in mind--and those were also fundies. So, the GOP under Rove-Bush-Cheney felt like they could piss on liberty because the fundie part of that group would still hang around.
The funny thing is, I see the country's political pendulum swinging ever so slowly and deliberately back to the left... of course only a little. But it is going to be very hard for the angry coalition that is left in the republican party to get back into power without listening to some good advice some people have been trying to give them. Bill Clinton told them to work with the new administration, knowing full well they wouldn't listen to him. Jeb Bush told them they have to broaden their demographic base and be more inclusive of minorities, especially hispanics.
But the bigoted, southern-strategy bound cronies that are left are unlikely to take that advice either. So unless the Obama Administration implodes and fails spectacularly, I don't expect the GOP to be anywhere close to controlling the government for a while... until they get some moderate blood back into their fold--the "Rockefeller Republicans" of the 60s and 70s come to mind... and Ike was actually fairly moderate himself as republicans go. I just think they've tasted unfettered power when Reagan came along, then Newt's takeover of Congress, then the Bush II nine eleven fear driven full Monty... so this evil bunch may not want to settle for less for a long, long time.
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