Anyone? What tools can I use to determine a precursor to sudden food price spikes?

[Poll_Blind]

Also, maybe a bonus question here, where can I go to educate myself as to what foodstuffs traditionally spike the most in those conditions?

Thank you!

PB

[ThomWV]

1. Natural gas spot market prices the preceding fall

Vegetable prices will always spike with a steeper curve than stable grains, but in the end what you will see is long term reaction to fertilizer and pesticide costs have more of an effect than anything else on cost - notwithstanding flood or hurricane.

[lonestarnot]

2. Beans.

[Statistical]

3. Not sure of any tools but you can look at front month future prices of commodities

Staples like foods especially processed foods are highly linked to the cost of raw materials.

Essentially a box of cereal is little more than WHEAT + OIL + ENERGY + CARDBOARD (PAPER).

Sadly commodities have crashed but food prices haven't which indicates that the companies are trying to keep prices high as long as possible. Eventually supply & demand will take over but given that the raw material + energy prices + oil have all fallen 50%-75% the final product should easily be 40%-60% off its high. We have a long way to go before food reaches "fair market value".

* It isn't commonly understood but fruits & vegetables are highly impacted by price of oil & natural gas.

Everything from far equipment to transport trucks run on oil. since price of the goods are low (in terms of price per pound) they are more heavily affected by shipping than say a HDTV.

Say Lettuce: $2/lb
HDTV: $800 / 60lbs = $15/lb

Pestacide production uses a considerable amount of oil.
Fetalizer is normally created from natural gas.

[Poll_Blind]

6. Wow thanks! Many great bits of information in here so far...

PB

[grilled onions]

4. To Further Confuse The Mix...

While a head of lettuce is almost always the same size your foods that are contained like cereals and canned goods can instantly shrink before your eyes while the price can either level off or spike(if they charge the same for a now smaller product.)

[DiverDave]

5. How about Deisel prices?

the trucks that takes the food to market have to be fueled.
The price of diesel is not a thing that most folks care about, but just check out the rise since 1990.
If you don't use it, you dont care how much it is, but it is a factor in the cost of everything.

[TygrBright]

7. Energy and Transportation price indexes. Also minimum wage/labor costs.

Most of the "unprocessed" or "minimally processed" food we get at supermarkets is harvested by minimum-wage workers, transported upwards of 1500 miles, and stored for anywhere from 5 days to many months, in climate-controlled facilities.

Processed food is transported twice that distance or more, and uses vast amounts of electric power in the breakdown and reformulation of component ingredients, then more electric power in the processing and packaging of the final foodlike product. Much of that labor is also minimum wage or not far above it.

Things that will cause food prices to spike will include:

If the ICS gets serious about fining and/or punishing the owners/managers of food processing facilities for hiring illegal workers.

If the minimum wage is raised, and/or if it becomes easier for foodchain worker groups to unionize and negotiate for fair compensation.

If Federal agencies get serious about forcing feedlot and other livestock production operators to keep their wastes out of groundwater and surface watersheds.

If Federal agencies get serious about interdicting the importation of component ingredients produced in cheap-labor environments with inadequate food safety control and supervision.

In fact, just about any attempt to make the industrially-produced foodlike substances that make up most of Americans' diets less harmful and/or more like actual food, will increase prices.

Make friends with your local farmers' market. At least then you'll have a good idea about how prices are affected by local growing conditions and transportation costs.

dismally,
Bright

[Poll_Blind]

8. Thank you for the information- posts like yours help identify the various...

...strands in the food web- exactly what I'm looking for.

Thank you again!

PB

[gravity]

9. If you knew how to accurately predict food prices, you would be rich

There are thousands of commodity traders who spend their lives trying to figure this stuff out, with limited success

[Poll_Blind]

10. Well, I agree but my goal is not that specific- just to know, say, a week or...

...so before those price hikes are likely to hit stores. I don't care to know early enough to make a killing in the market, just early enough to avoid being taken lethally by surprise should a food shortage or something similar occur.

  We've got a family of 5, possibly 6 (or as low as 4) over here so food-related expenses are significant.

PB