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<<Crystal ball ON>>
In general, I think that Obama will get some new public-works type projects going as soon as possible in the new year, and that events will snowball in ways that nobody now is expecting--including Obama. The world is ripe for change, like a supersaturated solution waiting for that seed crystal to trigger a cascade of surprises. In particular, I think people will prove to be much more willing to slough off old attitudes and old beliefs at an amazing rate, once they see that there is no security in the old stuff and a world of opportunities in the new. I think there will be rapid development and acceptance of new technologies, particularly in the realm of energy. They may try to channel the coming changes in health care into"safe" (i.e. minimal) adjustments to the existing system, but it will get away from them. In particular, the private insurance industry will prove incapable of handling the demands made on it because it depends on the private financial industry as a place to invest its funds, and the financial industry will be unable to return the kind of profits it did in the past. At the same time, many of the traditional major employers will be unable to sustain private insurance for their employees. This combination of circumstances will force the government's hand, so a single-payer system, modeled roughly on Medicare, will spring up much more rapidly than anyone now expects. Adoption of a single-payer system will in itself be a major factor in freeing people to engage in a new wave of invention and entrepreneurial startups.
In general, I see the coming few years as a time of hugely uncomfortable shifts, dislocations, innovation, ultimately resulting in a major realignment of the social, technological, and natural world. It will be a much better place, but we will play hell getting there. The extent of the coming changes cannot be overstated. It will be like the period between the end of the old feudal system and the time of the Reformation, but compressed into a much shorter time frame.
<<Crystal ball OFF>>
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