You're on your own
The ugly truth behind the markets: Not even the experts have a clueCharles Lewis, National Post
The soothing voices of experts -- the sound that always made sense of a chaotic world and reassured us that all would be well -- first turned into clanging and then a whimper by the end of 2008.
When things were good, there was no end of optimistic advice. Suddenly, though, between market crashes and political turmoil and a massive alleged Ponzi scheme, when most everyone was looking for some explanation about how everything could seemingly unravel so quickly, no one had any real answers. And apparently none of the experts had seen the disaster coming or could say with any certainty what's coming next.
Thomas Homer-Dixon, a teacher and author whose research has focused on how societies adapt to complex social change, said the bleak truth is no one really knows what is going on.
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"In many cases our complex institutions and technologies and arrangements and events within our society exceed human cognitive ability. There are so many unknown connections within the system that are really opaque to us," Prof. Homer-Dixon said. "A lot of people who are at the centre of the storm, who are supposed leaders and senior decision-makers, did not understand major financial innovations and could not anticipate the connections that developed within the system. So that's a kind of consequence of complexity that in many respects is new."
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=1118065