Wanna Know What Actual People Betting Real Money Think About Gonzo Resignation?

[Jacobin]

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/#


Heh heh:

Alberto Gonzales Resignation
GONZALES.RESIGN.MAR07
Alberto Gonzales to announce his resignation on/before 31st March 2007 M 31.0 42.9 35.0 870 -2.0
GONZALES.RESIGN.JUN07
Alberto Gonzales to announce his resignation on/before 30th June 2007 M 51.5 70.0 69.5 511 0
GONZALES.RESIGN.SEP07
Alberto Gonzales to announce his resignation on/before 30th September 2007 M 60.0 75.0 70.0 49 0
GONZALES.RESIGN.DEC07
Alberto Gonzales to announce his resignation on/before 31st December 2007 M 68.0 85.0 70.0 84 0



Okay, the cut and paste didn't come out too well. You can see the odds from the bookies (I believe this site is based in Ireland) better if you go to the link.

You can even sign up and make a bet!! There's also odds on Cheney resigning!!

Fun and profit from your political knowledge!!

[Jacobin]

1. Looks like about 40% probability before March 31

70% probability before December 31

[Hamlette]

2. anyone know how to read those numbers?

for the March 31 date the numbers are 31.0, 42.9, 35.0 and 870. What does each number mean?

[Lerkfish]

3. its odds notation for bookies

not that I can decipher it myself.

[Jacobin]

4. As best I can tell from reading the site

870 is the number of 'contracts' or bets.

31 is 'asked' and 42.9 is 'bid'

I believe it means that people think there is a 35% chance or so of Gonzo being gone by March 31, but the odds increase as the year goes on.

I hope someone comes along who knows these things better and can explain it

[Warpy]

5. If I'm reading this correctly

People bid for "shares" much the same way they buy stocks. The site puts a value on each share according to what their oddsmakers think the probability might be. The first number is what people can sell their shares for now. The second number is the price the oddsmakers have set, which may reflect the odds, themselves. That's the price to buy shares. The third column is the last price someone offered for the shares. The next number is the number of shares on that particular event traded to date.

If the event occurs, the shareholders make ten bucks a share. If the event fails to occur, shareholders owe the house ten bucks a share. Funds are kept available by registering a credit card with the site.

It's a sophisticated gambling site, in other words, much more so than the local bookie.